Proprietary vehicle information, trusted brands and embedded customer workflows can support durable recurring economics. Q2 revenue grew 7% to $468 million, with CARFAX up 8% and adjusted EBITDA margin around 43%. The opportunity is attractive if standalone costs and leverage leave sufficient cash for owners. A high-margin pre-spin business must not be valued without its new financing burden.

What the Market May Be Mispricing

Debate	Research judgment
CARFAX retention and B2B growth	Proprietary vehicle information, trusted brands and embedded customer workflows can support durable recurring economics.
Standalone costs and data access	Subscription retention, dealer ROI, data coverage and workflow attachment drive returns.
Debt service, cash conversion and capital returns	Q2 net income was $53 million and adjusted EBITDA $202 million.

Mobility Global separated from S&P Global in July 2026. It combines CARFAX vehicle-history and consumer services with automotiveMastermind, Polk and other automotive data and analytics capabilities. Dealers, manufacturers, insurers and other customers pay for information, subscriptions and workflow tools. CARFAX supplies a large share of revenue, while B2B products provide broader industry exposure. Pre-spin financials include allocated costs and financing arrangements that differ from the standalone company.

Business Takeaway

Mobility Global separated from S&P Global in July 2026. Subscription retention, dealer ROI, data coverage and workflow attachment drive returns.

Used-vehicle transactions, dealer productivity and automotive complexity support data demand. Industry cyclicality affects dealer budgets and transaction products. AI can improve workflows while also creating new interfaces and data-distribution risks. The defensible value lies in unique, reliable information rather than generic analytics.

Market-Share Analysis

Comparable same-definition share data for the subject and its principal rivals were not established. TAM estimates and company-specific volume measures are not treated as directly comparable market shares. The positioning analysis below is more reliable than a table of unmatched percentages.

Competitive Scale / Position

Company / Platform	Primary Position	Relative Scale	Growth Direction	Investment Relevance
Experian — AutoCheck	Direct: vehicle history and automotive data	Product scope; no matched operating-scale series	Competes for vehicle-history subscriptions	Customer choice in the stated segment only
Cox Automotive	Direct segments: dealer data, marketing and automotive workflows	Product scope; no matched operating-scale series	Overlap varies by dealer product	Customer choice in the stated segment only
J.D. Power; GlobalData	Direct segments: automotive market intelligence and analytics	Product scope; no matched operating-scale series	Competes in automotive intelligence	Customer choice in the stated segment only

Industry Takeaway

The defensible value lies in unique, reliable information rather than generic analytics. The base case requires evidence of profitable adoption within that market.

Competitive Landscape

Automotive history, dealer workflows and OEM intelligence define the peer set. CoStar’s property data and FICO’s credit scoring are excluded as weak cross-industry analogies.

Competitor	Market Share	Positioning	Advantages vs. Company	Disadvantages vs. Company	Current Direction
Experian — AutoCheck	No consistent comparable series	Direct: vehicle history and automotive data	Alternative vehicle-history data and dealer distribution	CARFAX has a distinct consumer/dealer brand	Competes for vehicle-history subscriptions
Cox Automotive	No consistent comparable series	Direct segments: dealer data, marketing and automotive workflows	Dealer software and marketplace relationships	Not identical to CARFAX's vehicle-history corpus	Overlap varies by dealer product
J.D. Power; GlobalData	No consistent comparable series	Direct segments: automotive market intelligence and analytics	Industry research and OEM relationships	Different data assets and consumer offerings	Competes in automotive intelligence

Moat Assessment

CARFAX brand trust, longitudinal vehicle records and industry distribution create a strong data advantage. The moat depends on continued access to differentiated records and useful integration into customer decisions. Competition and data rights remain relevant.

Moat direction: Stable — an analytical judgment about product and distribution economics, not a measured market-share claim.

Competitive Takeaway

CARFAX brand trust, longitudinal vehicle records and industry distribution create a strong data advantage. The direct rivals determine commercial pressure; diversified or sector anchors provide valuation context and are not substitutes for direct competition.

Historical Financials

Financial reporting periods follow the issuer's fiscal year: completed FY rows plus standalone current-year quarters and cumulative H1/9M for FY2026. Revenue, FCF and SBC are flows; cash is a period-end balance. FCF = operating cash flow minus property/equipment capex from SEC company facts; quarterly FCF after Q1 and any quarterly SBC derived from YTD are visibly marked. Missing values are N/D, not zero. Unit: USD millions. Data extracted from SEC-tagged filings as of 2026-11-07. Company-specific FCF definitions and acquisition effects may require further reconciliation.

Period	Revenue	Growth	Gross Margin	Operating Margin	FCF	FCF Margin	SBC	Diluted Shares	Cash	Debt
FY2024	1,613	8.62%	70.55%	19.90%	412	25.54%	28	N/D	27	259
FY2025	1,750	8.49%	70.51%	21.54%	461	26.34%	22	N/D	38	248
Q2 FY2026	$468	N/D	N/D	17.5%	N/D	N/D	N/D	294.821	$186	N/D
H1 FY2026	$923	N/D	N/D	17.7%	$177 (derived: CFO - capex)	19.2%	$9	294.821	$186	N/D

Financial Takeaways

Q2 net income was $53 million and adjusted EBITDA $202 million. The spin included a $2 billion payment to S&P Global and materially increased debt. Historical combined FCF is therefore not standalone owner cash without adjusting for interest, taxes and corporate costs. The model uses after-financing EPS and includes the initiated dividend at its assumed current annual rate.

Pre-spin results are carve-out accounts. The $2 billion distribution to S&P Global and new standalone debt change the capital structure; historical weighted share counts are not a clean standalone EPS denominator. Use approximately 294.8 million current shares and standalone financing costs.

Financial direction: Mixed — assess the reported trend alongside dilution and the balance sheet.

Current Valuation

Metric	Value
Price Snapshot	$19.32 — 2026-11-03 regular-session close, America/New_York
Market Capitalization	$5.46B
Enterprise Value	$7.28B
Trailing P/E	26.63
Provider forward P/E	12.39
EV / Sales	4.01

Comparable Company Analysis

Company	Relevance	Public / Private	Forward P/E	EV / Sales	Growth / Margin / Risk Context
MBGL — Mobility Global, Inc.	Subject company	Public	12.39	4.01	automotive data and analytics; 3Y revenue-growth estimate 7.72%; operating margin 22.38%
Experian Automotive	Direct operating competitor / substitute	Operating business of listed Experian	N/A	N/A	direct vehicle history and automotive data; no compatible standalone public multiple used
Experian — AutoCheck	Direct: vehicle history and automotive data	Operating product / listed parent	N/D — no matched snapshot collected	N/D — no matched snapshot collected	Competes for vehicle-history subscriptions
Cox Automotive	Direct segments: dealer data, marketing and automotive workflows	Private	N/D — no matched snapshot collected	N/D — no matched snapshot collected	Overlap varies by dealer product
J.D. Power; GlobalData	Direct segments: automotive market intelligence and analytics	Mixed / standalone valuation not used	N/D — no matched snapshot collected	N/D — no matched snapshot collected	Competes in automotive intelligence

Comparable takeaway: Automotive history, dealer workflows and OEM intelligence define the peer set. CoStar’s property data and FICO’s credit scoring are excluded as weak cross-industry analogies. Quoted multiples retain their original dated snapshot; missing matched multiples are not estimated. Consolidated parent multiples do not isolate the competing product. No mechanical peer average is used.

The base terminal P/E is 20×, versus the provider's current forward P/E of 12.39×. Holding that quoted multiple constant on this model's 2029 EPS gives an illustrative present value of $14.69, versus the central base FV of $23.35. Earnings definitions differ, so this is a sensitivity check; it makes the dependence on a rerating or derating explicit.

Valuation Scenarios

Scenario	Key Assumptions	Fair Value	Probability	Probability Rationale	Return From Price Snapshot
Bear	3Y revenue CAGR 3%; sustainable 2029 EPS $0.90 after compensation; 14× P/E; 12% discount rate; Industry weakness and standalone costs limit 2029 sustainable EPS to $0.90.	$9.54	25%	Execution, financing or competitive setbacks remain credible	-50.6%
Base	3Y revenue CAGR 8%; sustainable 2029 EPS $1.60 after compensation; 20× P/E; 12% discount rate; Recurring growth and disciplined costs produce $1.60 of 2029 sustainable EPS.	$23.35	50%	Most likely operating trajectory, requiring measurable progress	+20.9%
Bull	3Y revenue CAGR 12%; sustainable 2029 EPS $2.30 after compensation; 25× P/E; 12% discount rate; Strong data monetization and deleveraging produce $2.30 of 2029 sustainable EPS.	$41.50	25%	Successful product conversion and operating leverage; not assured	+114.8%
Probability-Weighted	Sum of each scenario value × its probability	$24.44	100%	Judgmental scenario probabilities	+26.5%

Valuation Takeaway

• Primary valuation method: Present value of sustainable 2029 equity earnings × scenario P/E, plus assumed interim dividends. The three-year discount horizon approximates late-2029 earning power.
• Cross-check methods: Direct competition, quoted peer multiples, current cash conversion, and the separate revenue/share/net-margin bridge in the valuation workpaper.
• Key valuation dependencies: CARFAX retention and B2B growth; Standalone costs and data access; Debt service, cash conversion and capital returns. All forward figures are independent research assumptions, not company guidance or consensus.
• Valuation confidence / Risk Level: 62/100 / Medium. Scenario values are sensitive to sustainable earnings and terminal multiples.
• Margin-of-safety conclusion: Buy at $18.52. New-file boundaries use Strong Buy = min(P/W FV ÷ 1.5, 1.1 × bear FV), Buy upper = P/W FV ÷ 1.25, Avoid above = P/W FV ÷ 0.90. Returns are to present fair value, not annualized returns or price targets for a particular date.

The standalone team must establish execution credibility and capital discipline. Priorities should be integration, product relevance and leverage management. Monitor recurring growth and actual standalone cash conversion before assigning a full information-services premium.

Management Takeaway

Monitor recurring growth and actual standalone cash conversion before assigning a full information-services premium.

Analyzed call: Q2 2026, complete material Q&A · Research snapshot: 2026-10-21

The table consolidates related questions and follow-ups from each material participant in the complete call.

Analyst / Firm	Core Question	Management Response	Research Read-Through
Scott Wurtzel / Wolfe Research	How will the CARFAX selling strategy support growth?	Management said new offerings support later growth.	Confirm that this opportunity converts into profitable recurring demand.
Craig Huber / Huber Research Partners	Why is the cross-selling approach being revised?	Management said the initial approach underperformed and is being changed.	Confirm that this opportunity converts into profitable recurring demand.
Jeff Meuler / Baird	How much dealer-penetration opportunity remains?	Management said existing products retain room for expansion.	Confirm that this opportunity converts into profitable recurring demand.
Will Qi / RBC Capital Markets	How is One Mobility progressing, and does the outlook assume a macroeconomic rebound?	Management said launches are progressing and the outlook does not assume a macroeconomic rebound.	Confirm that this opportunity converts into profitable recurring demand.
Toni Kaplan / Morgan Stanley	How do sales recalibration and OEM demand affect the outlook?	Management described execution changes alongside durable manufacturer demand.	Confirm that this opportunity converts into profitable recurring demand.
Wahid Amin / Barclays	What supports a second-half recovery?	Management said customer retention supports the installed business's economics.	Treat the stated timetable as conditional on demonstrated execution.
Keegan Anaco / Wells Fargo	What differentiates the Polk data franchise?	Management said the depth of its historical data strengthens differentiation.	Confirm that this opportunity converts into profitable recurring demand.
Rajiv Bhatia / Morningstar	How does the listings strategy affect investment and margins?	Management said scale funds investment and margin improvement.	Confirm that this opportunity converts into profitable recurring demand.

Analyst-Q&A Takeaway

Historical data and installed products support durability, while management acknowledged weak initial cross-selling execution. Revised selling and new launches must restore growth without relying on a macro rebound.

Source	Type	Date / Period	What It Supports
Mobility Global Reports Second Quarter 2026 Financial Results :: Mobility Global, Inc. (MBGL)	Company IR / earnings filing	Q2 2026	Latest operating results, guidance, products and financial supplement
MBGL complete earnings-call transcript	Transcript	Q2 2026	Prepared remarks and all material Q&A exchanges
MBGL regular-session historical price	Market data	2026-10-20 close	Common price used in returns, scores and zones
MBGL valuation statistics	Market data	2026-10-20 close; ratios retrieved 2026-10-21	Market capitalization, shares, quoted multiples and current ratios
MBGL historical income statement	Standardized financial statements	Latest reported period and two preceding fiscal years	Historical income statement; source-native currency and definitions
MBGL historical balance sheet	Standardized financial statements	Latest reported period and two preceding fiscal years	Historical balance sheet; source-native currency and definitions
MBGL historical cash flows	Standardized financial statements	Latest reported period and two preceding fiscal years	Historical cash flows; source-native currency and definitions
FICO statistics	Comparable-company market data	2026-10-20 regular close	Peer multiples and financial context; public quote basis
Mobility separation information statement — competition	Regulatory filing / primary product evidence	2026 separation statement; checked 2026-10-28	Experian, Cox Automotive, J.D. Power and automotive intelligence overlap
SEC XBRL company facts — MBGL	Regulatory filing (as tagged)	FY2026, through 2026-06-30	Current-year standalone-quarter and year-to-date source facts for FCF, SBC, revenue and other reported metrics

Research context

• Company: Mobility Global, Inc.

• Ticker: MBGL

• Exchange: NYSE

• Sector / Industry: Industrials / automotive data and analytics

• Template version: 2.7

• Research date: 2026-10-21

• Valuation / score price snapshot: $19.32 — 2026-11-03 regular-session close, America/New_York

• Tracking tier: On the Radar

• Owned: No

• Primary operating period reviewed: Q2 2026

• Historical period reviewed: TTM, FY 2025, FY 2024; latest balance-sheet date shown below

• Latest investor presentation reviewed: Results release and associated financial tables; no separate slide deck materially used

• Latest earnings call reviewed: Q2 2026, complete material Q&A

• Latest post-earnings management commentary reviewed: No separate later management presentation incorporated

• Price snapshot date: 2026-11-03

• Price snapshot time / timezone: Regular-session close, America/New_York (including exchange half-days)

• Competitor / analyst-Q&A audit: 2026-10-28; original operating, price and valuation snapshots retained.

MBGL — Mobility Global, Inc.

Company & Research Metadata

• Company: Mobility Global, Inc.

• Ticker: MBGL

• Exchange: NYSE

• Sector / Industry: Industrials / automotive data and analytics

• Template version: 2.7

• Research date: 2026-10-21

• Valuation / score price snapshot: $19.32 — 2026-11-03 regular-session close, America/New_York

• Tracking tier: On the Radar

• Owned: No

• Primary operating period reviewed: Q2 2026

• Historical period reviewed: TTM, FY 2025, FY 2024; latest balance-sheet date shown below

• Latest investor presentation reviewed: Results release and associated financial tables; no separate slide deck materially used

• Latest earnings call reviewed: Q2 2026, complete material Q&A

• Latest post-earnings management commentary reviewed: No separate later management presentation incorporated

• Price snapshot date: 2026-11-03

• Price snapshot time / timezone: Regular-session close, America/New_York (including exchange half-days)

• Competitor / analyst-Q&A audit: 2026-10-28; original operating, price and valuation snapshots retained.

What's Changed Since Previous Review

Current Review: 2026-10-28

Previous Review: 2026-10-21

Update Trigger: Competitor relevance and analyst-Q&A correction

Area	Previous View	Current View	Investment Impact
Competition	Preceding operating and comparable-company classifications	Product/customer/geographic boundaries corrected; direct rivals separated from substitutes, partners and valuation anchors	Corrects the competitive comparison; does not by itself re-underwrite the valuation
Analyst questions	Prior source-linked Q&A summaries	Complete questions and sentence-form management answers; all 8 existing rows retained	Improves readability while preserving the recorded exchange meaning
Valuation and scores	Approved operating/price snapshots, scenarios, scores and decisions	Preserved	No price refresh, rerank or change to valuation assumptions in this correction pass

Thesis: No new fundamental thesis determination is made in this correction pass. The prior investment decision is preserved; the corrected competitive scope should govern the next substantive review.

Investment Snapshot

Metric	Current View
Price Snapshot	$19.32 — 2026-11-03 regular-session close, America/New_York
Rating / Zone Status	Buy
Bear / Base / Bull Fair Value	$9.54 / $23.35 / $41.50
Scenario Probabilities	25% / 50% / 25%
Probability-Weighted Fair Value	$24.44
Probability-Weighted Expected Return	+26.5%
Bear-Case Return	-50.6%
Strong Buy Zone	≤ $10.49
Buy Zone	>$10.49–$19.55
Avoid Chasing Above	> $27.16
Quality Score / Tier	80.4 / Tier A
Opportunity Score / Rank	68.4 / #12 of 76
Risk Level	Medium
Tracking / Ownership	On the Radar / Not Owned

Decision rationale: MBGL is Buy at $18.52, with +32.0% probability-weighted upside and -48.5% bear-case return. Proprietary vehicle information, trusted brands and embedded customer workflows can support durable recurring economics. Confidence is 62/100 because the earnings conversion, competitive and capital assumptions below remain conditional.

Investment Thesis

Proprietary vehicle information, trusted brands and embedded customer workflows can support durable recurring economics. Q2 revenue grew 7% to $468 million, with CARFAX up 8% and adjusted EBITDA margin around 43%. The opportunity is attractive if standalone costs and leverage leave sufficient cash for owners. A high-margin pre-spin business must not be valued without its new financing burden.

What the Market May Be Mispricing

Debate	Research judgment
CARFAX retention and B2B growth	Proprietary vehicle information, trusted brands and embedded customer workflows can support durable recurring economics.
Standalone costs and data access	Subscription retention, dealer ROI, data coverage and workflow attachment drive returns.
Debt service, cash conversion and capital returns	Q2 net income was $53 million and adjusted EBITDA $202 million.

Business Overview

Mobility Global separated from S&P Global in July 2026. It combines CARFAX vehicle-history and consumer services with automotiveMastermind, Polk and other automotive data and analytics capabilities. Dealers, manufacturers, insurers and other customers pay for information, subscriptions and workflow tools. CARFAX supplies a large share of revenue, while B2B products provide broader industry exposure. Pre-spin financials include allocated costs and financing arrangements that differ from the standalone company.

Business Takeaway

Mobility Global separated from S&P Global in July 2026. Subscription retention, dealer ROI, data coverage and workflow attachment drive returns.

Industry, TAM & Market Share

Used-vehicle transactions, dealer productivity and automotive complexity support data demand. Industry cyclicality affects dealer budgets and transaction products. AI can improve workflows while also creating new interfaces and data-distribution risks. The defensible value lies in unique, reliable information rather than generic analytics.

Market-Share Analysis

Comparable same-definition share data for the subject and its principal rivals were not established. TAM estimates and company-specific volume measures are not treated as directly comparable market shares. The positioning analysis below is more reliable than a table of unmatched percentages.

Competitive Scale / Position

Company / Platform	Primary Position	Relative Scale	Growth Direction	Investment Relevance
Experian — AutoCheck	Direct: vehicle history and automotive data	Product scope; no matched operating-scale series	Competes for vehicle-history subscriptions	Customer choice in the stated segment only
Cox Automotive	Direct segments: dealer data, marketing and automotive workflows	Product scope; no matched operating-scale series	Overlap varies by dealer product	Customer choice in the stated segment only
J.D. Power; GlobalData	Direct segments: automotive market intelligence and analytics	Product scope; no matched operating-scale series	Competes in automotive intelligence	Customer choice in the stated segment only

Industry Takeaway

The defensible value lies in unique, reliable information rather than generic analytics. The base case requires evidence of profitable adoption within that market.

Customer Economics

Subscription retention, dealer ROI, data coverage and workflow attachment drive returns. A trusted vehicle-history report has repeat demand, but dealers can negotiate and use alternatives. Transaction-sensitive revenue and manufacturer spending should be distinguished from recurring subscriptions.

Customer-Economics Takeaway

The economic test is Debt service, cash conversion and capital returns. Transaction-sensitive revenue and manufacturer spending should be distinguished from recurring subscriptions.

Competitive Landscape & Moat

Competitive Landscape

Automotive history, dealer workflows and OEM intelligence define the peer set. CoStar’s property data and FICO’s credit scoring are excluded as weak cross-industry analogies.

Competitor	Market Share	Positioning	Advantages vs. Company	Disadvantages vs. Company	Current Direction
Experian — AutoCheck	No consistent comparable series	Direct: vehicle history and automotive data	Alternative vehicle-history data and dealer distribution	CARFAX has a distinct consumer/dealer brand	Competes for vehicle-history subscriptions
Cox Automotive	No consistent comparable series	Direct segments: dealer data, marketing and automotive workflows	Dealer software and marketplace relationships	Not identical to CARFAX's vehicle-history corpus	Overlap varies by dealer product
J.D. Power; GlobalData	No consistent comparable series	Direct segments: automotive market intelligence and analytics	Industry research and OEM relationships	Different data assets and consumer offerings	Competes in automotive intelligence

Moat Assessment

CARFAX brand trust, longitudinal vehicle records and industry distribution create a strong data advantage. The moat depends on continued access to differentiated records and useful integration into customer decisions. Competition and data rights remain relevant.

Moat direction: Stable — an analytical judgment about product and distribution economics, not a measured market-share claim.

Competitive Takeaway

CARFAX brand trust, longitudinal vehicle records and industry distribution create a strong data advantage. The direct rivals determine commercial pressure; diversified or sector anchors provide valuation context and are not substitutes for direct competition.

Financial Profile

Historical Financials

Financial reporting periods follow the issuer's fiscal year: completed FY rows plus standalone current-year quarters and cumulative H1/9M for FY2026. Revenue, FCF and SBC are flows; cash is a period-end balance. FCF = operating cash flow minus property/equipment capex from SEC company facts; quarterly FCF after Q1 and any quarterly SBC derived from YTD are visibly marked. Missing values are N/D, not zero. Unit: USD millions. Data extracted from SEC-tagged filings as of 2026-11-07. Company-specific FCF definitions and acquisition effects may require further reconciliation.

Period	Revenue	Growth	Gross Margin	Operating Margin	FCF	FCF Margin	SBC	Diluted Shares	Cash	Debt
FY2024	1,613	8.62%	70.55%	19.90%	412	25.54%	28	N/D	27	259
FY2025	1,750	8.49%	70.51%	21.54%	461	26.34%	22	N/D	38	248
Q2 FY2026	$468	N/D	N/D	17.5%	N/D	N/D	N/D	294.821	$186	N/D
H1 FY2026	$923	N/D	N/D	17.7%	$177 (derived: CFO - capex)	19.2%	$9	294.821	$186	N/D

Financial Takeaways

Q2 net income was $53 million and adjusted EBITDA $202 million. The spin included a $2 billion payment to S&P Global and materially increased debt. Historical combined FCF is therefore not standalone owner cash without adjusting for interest, taxes and corporate costs. The model uses after-financing EPS and includes the initiated dividend at its assumed current annual rate.

Pre-spin results are carve-out accounts. The $2 billion distribution to S&P Global and new standalone debt change the capital structure; historical weighted share counts are not a clean standalone EPS denominator. Use approximately 294.8 million current shares and standalone financing costs.

Financial direction: Mixed — assess the reported trend alongside dilution and the balance sheet.

Management & Capital Allocation

The standalone team must establish execution credibility and capital discipline. Priorities should be integration, product relevance and leverage management. Monitor recurring growth and actual standalone cash conversion before assigning a full information-services premium.

Management Takeaway

Monitor recurring growth and actual standalone cash conversion before assigning a full information-services premium.

Valuation

Current Valuation

Metric	Value
Price Snapshot	$19.32 — 2026-11-03 regular-session close, America/New_York
Market Capitalization	$5.46B
Enterprise Value	$7.28B
Trailing P/E	26.63
Provider forward P/E	12.39
EV / Sales	4.01

Comparable Company Analysis

Company	Relevance	Public / Private	Forward P/E	EV / Sales	Growth / Margin / Risk Context
MBGL — Mobility Global, Inc.	Subject company	Public	12.39	4.01	automotive data and analytics; 3Y revenue-growth estimate 7.72%; operating margin 22.38%
Experian Automotive	Direct operating competitor / substitute	Operating business of listed Experian	N/A	N/A	direct vehicle history and automotive data; no compatible standalone public multiple used
Experian — AutoCheck	Direct: vehicle history and automotive data	Operating product / listed parent	N/D — no matched snapshot collected	N/D — no matched snapshot collected	Competes for vehicle-history subscriptions
Cox Automotive	Direct segments: dealer data, marketing and automotive workflows	Private	N/D — no matched snapshot collected	N/D — no matched snapshot collected	Overlap varies by dealer product
J.D. Power; GlobalData	Direct segments: automotive market intelligence and analytics	Mixed / standalone valuation not used	N/D — no matched snapshot collected	N/D — no matched snapshot collected	Competes in automotive intelligence

Comparable takeaway: Automotive history, dealer workflows and OEM intelligence define the peer set. CoStar’s property data and FICO’s credit scoring are excluded as weak cross-industry analogies. Quoted multiples retain their original dated snapshot; missing matched multiples are not estimated. Consolidated parent multiples do not isolate the competing product. No mechanical peer average is used.

The base terminal P/E is 20×, versus the provider's current forward P/E of 12.39×. Holding that quoted multiple constant on this model's 2029 EPS gives an illustrative present value of $14.69, versus the central base FV of $23.35. Earnings definitions differ, so this is a sensitivity check; it makes the dependence on a rerating or derating explicit.

Valuation Scenarios

Scenario	Key Assumptions	Fair Value	Probability	Probability Rationale	Return From Price Snapshot
Bear	3Y revenue CAGR 3%; sustainable 2029 EPS $0.90 after compensation; 14× P/E; 12% discount rate; Industry weakness and standalone costs limit 2029 sustainable EPS to $0.90.	$9.54	25%	Execution, financing or competitive setbacks remain credible	-50.6%
Base	3Y revenue CAGR 8%; sustainable 2029 EPS $1.60 after compensation; 20× P/E; 12% discount rate; Recurring growth and disciplined costs produce $1.60 of 2029 sustainable EPS.	$23.35	50%	Most likely operating trajectory, requiring measurable progress	+20.9%
Bull	3Y revenue CAGR 12%; sustainable 2029 EPS $2.30 after compensation; 25× P/E; 12% discount rate; Strong data monetization and deleveraging produce $2.30 of 2029 sustainable EPS.	$41.50	25%	Successful product conversion and operating leverage; not assured	+114.8%
Probability-Weighted	Sum of each scenario value × its probability	$24.44	100%	Judgmental scenario probabilities	+26.5%

Valuation Takeaway

• Primary valuation method: Present value of sustainable 2029 equity earnings × scenario P/E, plus assumed interim dividends. The three-year discount horizon approximates late-2029 earning power.
• Cross-check methods: Direct competition, quoted peer multiples, current cash conversion, and the separate revenue/share/net-margin bridge in the valuation workpaper.
• Key valuation dependencies: CARFAX retention and B2B growth; Standalone costs and data access; Debt service, cash conversion and capital returns. All forward figures are independent research assumptions, not company guidance or consensus.
• Valuation confidence / Risk Level: 62/100 / Medium. Scenario values are sensitive to sustainable earnings and terminal multiples.
• Margin-of-safety conclusion: Buy at $18.52. New-file boundaries use Strong Buy = min(P/W FV ÷ 1.5, 1.1 × bear FV), Buy upper = P/W FV ÷ 1.25, Avoid above = P/W FV ÷ 0.90. Returns are to present fair value, not annualized returns or price targets for a particular date.

Analyst Questions

The table consolidates related questions and follow-ups from each material participant in the complete call.

Analyst / Firm	Core Question	Management Response	Research Read-Through
Scott Wurtzel / Wolfe Research	How will the CARFAX selling strategy support growth?	Management said new offerings support later growth.	Confirm that this opportunity converts into profitable recurring demand.
Craig Huber / Huber Research Partners	Why is the cross-selling approach being revised?	Management said the initial approach underperformed and is being changed.	Confirm that this opportunity converts into profitable recurring demand.
Jeff Meuler / Baird	How much dealer-penetration opportunity remains?	Management said existing products retain room for expansion.	Confirm that this opportunity converts into profitable recurring demand.
Will Qi / RBC Capital Markets	How is One Mobility progressing, and does the outlook assume a macroeconomic rebound?	Management said launches are progressing and the outlook does not assume a macroeconomic rebound.	Confirm that this opportunity converts into profitable recurring demand.
Toni Kaplan / Morgan Stanley	How do sales recalibration and OEM demand affect the outlook?	Management described execution changes alongside durable manufacturer demand.	Confirm that this opportunity converts into profitable recurring demand.
Wahid Amin / Barclays	What supports a second-half recovery?	Management said customer retention supports the installed business's economics.	Treat the stated timetable as conditional on demonstrated execution.
Keegan Anaco / Wells Fargo	What differentiates the Polk data franchise?	Management said the depth of its historical data strengthens differentiation.	Confirm that this opportunity converts into profitable recurring demand.
Rajiv Bhatia / Morningstar	How does the listings strategy affect investment and margins?	Management said scale funds investment and margin improvement.	Confirm that this opportunity converts into profitable recurring demand.

Analyst-Q&A Takeaway

Historical data and installed products support durability, while management acknowledged weak initial cross-selling execution. Revised selling and new launches must restore growth without relying on a macro rebound.

Thesis Monitoring

Driver	Current State	Positive Trigger / Catalyst	Negative Trigger / Falsifier	What It Changes
CARFAX retention and B2B growth	Proprietary vehicle information, trusted brands and embedded customer workflows can support durable recurring economics.	Revenue trajectory sustains approximately 8% annual growth on a comparable basis	Growth remains below the 3% bear assumption over a full operating cycle	Revenue outlook and scenario probabilities
Standalone costs and data access	Subscription retention, dealer ROI, data coverage and workflow attachment drive returns.	After-cost earnings progress toward the base implied net margin of 20.6%	Competition, credit losses or service costs make that margin trajectory unattainable	Margins, moat score and valuation multiple
Debt service, cash conversion and capital returns	Q2 net income was $53 million and adjusted EBITDA $202 million.	Financing and compensation remain consistent with 294.8M economic shares in the 2029 base case	Required capital or cumulative dilution materially exceeds the model without matching earnings	Financial score, confidence and downside value

Quality & Opportunity Scorecards

Quality Score

Component	Score	Weight	Weighted Contribution	Evidence
Business durability and economics	89	25%	22.3	Subscription retention, dealer ROI, data coverage and workflow attachment drive returns.
Moat and competitive position	87	25%	21.8	CARFAX brand trust, longitudinal vehicle records and industry distribution create a strong data advantage.
Growth runway and durability	73	20%	14.6	Used-vehicle transactions, dealer productivity and automotive complexity support data demand.
Financial quality and balance sheet	73	15%	11.0	Q2 net income was $53 million and adjusted EBITDA $202 million.
Management, governance and capital allocation	72	15%	10.8	The standalone team must establish execution credibility and capital discipline.
Quality Score	80.4	100%	80.4	Weighted score, independent of ownership and current price

• Quality Tier: A
• Speculative override: None

Opportunity Score

Component	Raw Input	Normalized Score	Weight	Weighted Contribution
Quality	80.4	80.4	30%	24.1
Probability-weighted upside	+26.5%	100.0	35%	35.0
Bear-case downside	-50.6%	0.0	20%	0.0
Risk / valuation confidence	62	62.0	15%	9.3
Opportunity Score		68.4	100%	68.4

• Opportunity Rank: #12 of 76
• Zone Status: Buy

Portfolio Context

• Tracking tier: On the Radar
• Owned: No
• Tracking source of truth: ontheradar.md
• Portfolio source of truth: portfolio/holdings.md
• Scoring independence: Ownership, account, shares, position size and cost basis do not change research, valuation, Quality, Opportunity, rank or zones.

Investment Decision History

Timestamp	Price	Rating	Zone Status	Buy Zone	Strong Buy Zone	Avoid Chasing Above	Base FV	P/W FV	P/W Return	Quality	Opportunity / Rank	Change / Rationale
2026-10-21 (America/New_York)	$18.52	Buy	Buy	>$10.49–$19.55	≤ $10.49	> $27.16	$23.35	$24.44	+32.0%	80.4	68.7 / #9	Initial missing-file analysis; common-universe ranking; independent scenario assumptions

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Material Sources

Source	Type	Date / Period	What It Supports
Mobility Global Reports Second Quarter 2026 Financial Results :: Mobility Global, Inc. (MBGL)	Company IR / earnings filing	Q2 2026	Latest operating results, guidance, products and financial supplement
MBGL complete earnings-call transcript	Transcript	Q2 2026	Prepared remarks and all material Q&A exchanges
MBGL regular-session historical price	Market data	2026-10-20 close	Common price used in returns, scores and zones
MBGL valuation statistics	Market data	2026-10-20 close; ratios retrieved 2026-10-21	Market capitalization, shares, quoted multiples and current ratios
MBGL historical income statement	Standardized financial statements	Latest reported period and two preceding fiscal years	Historical income statement; source-native currency and definitions
MBGL historical balance sheet	Standardized financial statements	Latest reported period and two preceding fiscal years	Historical balance sheet; source-native currency and definitions
MBGL historical cash flows	Standardized financial statements	Latest reported period and two preceding fiscal years	Historical cash flows; source-native currency and definitions
FICO statistics	Comparable-company market data	2026-10-20 regular close	Peer multiples and financial context; public quote basis
Mobility separation information statement — competition	Regulatory filing / primary product evidence	2026 separation statement; checked 2026-10-28	Experian, Cox Automotive, J.D. Power and automotive intelligence overlap
SEC XBRL company facts — MBGL	Regulatory filing (as tagged)	FY2026, through 2026-06-30	Current-year standalone-quarter and year-to-date source facts for FCF, SBC, revenue and other reported metrics