THE LONG VIEW

A considered approach.

How FolioFacts evaluates business quality, valuation scenarios, and investment opportunity.

THE RESEARCH FRAMEWORK

Business quality meets price discipline.

Quality is price independent. Opportunity combines that quality with scenario-based upside, bear-case protection, and confidence. Ownership and cost basis do not affect these scores. Watchlist rank compares the scored companies in that Watchlist.

Model scores, valuation estimates, and price zones are based on assumptions, not guarantees of future performance or individualized advice. Read our Disclaimer.

Quality score

25% business durability
25% moat and competitive position
20% growth runway
15% financial quality
15% management and capital allocation

Opportunity score

30% Quality Score
35% normalized probability-weighted upside
20% normalized bear-case return
15% risk and valuation confidence

Reading the zones

At least 50% upside to P/W fair value, with price no more than 10% above bear-case fair value.

At least 25% upside to P/W fair value, above the Strong Buy boundary.

Modeled return from approximately −10% to below +25%.

More than 10% downside to P/W fair value.

Risk-adjusted view. This framework balances expected upside, downside risk and valuation confidence. Zones may be less reliable for companies priced mainly on future potential rather than current fundamentals.

Research review triggers

  • Quarterly resultsEarnings, updated guidance and changes in operating performance.
  • Zone crossingPrice moves into a different valuation zone.
  • Return changeP/W expected return shifts by at least 10 percentage points.
  • Thesis changeMaterial developments in the business, competition, management or capital allocation.

These prompt a review of the research and Opportunity Score. Watchlist ranks are calculated automatically from the scores currently displayed.

Edit company

Prices are entered manually. Changing this company's price updates all your positions in it and the valuation calculations in your private Watchlist and Insights. Shares and average cost stay specific to each position.

COMPANY ANALYSIS

Included accounts

PORTFOLIO EXPORT

Export holdings

Company Overrides

Your estimates, applied across your portfolio and watchlist. These companies have saved research overrides.

How to configure overrides
  1. In Watchlist, find the company and select Edit. Add it first if needed.
  2. Check its investment type, price and price date in Company details.
  3. Open Research overrides to enter fair value, quality, price zones or scenarios, then select Save changes.

Leave fields blank to use available report values. Add your thesis or sources in Notes.

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