# MBGL — Mobility Global, Inc.

## Company & Research Metadata

- **Company:** Mobility Global, Inc.
- **Ticker:** MBGL
- **Exchange:** NYSE
- **Sector / Industry:** Industrials / automotive data and analytics
- **Template version:** 2.7
- **Research date:** 2026-10-21
- **Valuation / score price snapshot:** $19.32 — 2026-11-03 regular-session close, America/New_York
- **Tracking tier:** On the Radar
- **Owned:** No
- **Primary operating period reviewed:** Q2 2026
- **Historical period reviewed:** TTM, FY 2025, FY 2024; latest balance-sheet date shown below
- **Latest investor presentation reviewed:** Results release and associated financial tables; no separate slide deck materially used
- **Latest earnings call reviewed:** Q2 2026, complete material Q&A
- **Latest post-earnings management commentary reviewed:** No separate later management presentation incorporated

- **Price snapshot date:** 2026-11-03

- **Price snapshot time / timezone:** Regular-session close, America/New_York (including exchange half-days)
- **Competitor / analyst-Q&A audit:** 2026-10-28; original operating, price and valuation snapshots retained.

## What's Changed Since Previous Review

**Current Review:** 2026-10-28

**Previous Review:** 2026-10-21

**Update Trigger:** Competitor relevance and analyst-Q&A correction

| Area | Previous View | Current View | Investment Impact |
|---|---|---|---|
| Competition | Preceding operating and comparable-company classifications | Product/customer/geographic boundaries corrected; direct rivals separated from substitutes, partners and valuation anchors | Corrects the competitive comparison; does not by itself re-underwrite the valuation |
| Analyst questions | Prior source-linked Q&A summaries | Complete questions and sentence-form management answers; all 8 existing rows retained | Improves readability while preserving the recorded exchange meaning |
| Valuation and scores | Approved operating/price snapshots, scenarios, scores and decisions | Preserved | No price refresh, rerank or change to valuation assumptions in this correction pass |

**Thesis:** No new fundamental thesis determination is made in this correction pass. The prior investment decision is preserved; the corrected competitive scope should govern the next substantive review.

## Investment Snapshot

| Metric | Current View |
|---|---|
| Price Snapshot | $19.32 — 2026-11-03 regular-session close, America/New_York |
| Rating / Zone Status | Buy |
| Bear / Base / Bull Fair Value | $9.54 / $23.35 / $41.50 |
| Scenario Probabilities | 25% / 50% / 25% |
| Probability-Weighted Fair Value | $24.44 |
| Probability-Weighted Expected Return | +26.5% |
| Bear-Case Return | -50.6% |
| Strong Buy Zone | ≤ $10.49 |
| Buy Zone | >$10.49–$19.55 |
| Avoid Chasing Above | > $27.16 |
| Quality Score / Tier | 80.4 / Tier A |
| Opportunity Score / Rank | 68.4 / #12 of 76 |
| Risk Level | Medium |
| Tracking / Ownership | On the Radar / Not Owned |

**Decision rationale:** MBGL is **Buy** at $18.52, with +32.0% probability-weighted upside and -48.5% bear-case return. Proprietary vehicle information, trusted brands and embedded customer workflows can support durable recurring economics. Confidence is 62/100 because the earnings conversion, competitive and capital assumptions below remain conditional.

## Investment Thesis

Proprietary vehicle information, trusted brands and embedded customer workflows can support durable recurring economics. Q2 revenue grew 7% to $468 million, with CARFAX up 8% and adjusted EBITDA margin around 43%. The opportunity is attractive if standalone costs and leverage leave sufficient cash for owners. A high-margin pre-spin business must not be valued without its new financing burden.

### What the Market May Be Mispricing

| Debate | Research judgment |
|---|---|
| CARFAX retention and B2B growth | Proprietary vehicle information, trusted brands and embedded customer workflows can support durable recurring economics. |
| Standalone costs and data access | Subscription retention, dealer ROI, data coverage and workflow attachment drive returns. |
| Debt service, cash conversion and capital returns | Q2 net income was $53 million and adjusted EBITDA $202 million. |

## Business Overview

Mobility Global separated from S&P Global in July 2026. It combines CARFAX vehicle-history and consumer services with automotiveMastermind, Polk and other automotive data and analytics capabilities. Dealers, manufacturers, insurers and other customers pay for information, subscriptions and workflow tools. CARFAX supplies a large share of revenue, while B2B products provide broader industry exposure. Pre-spin financials include allocated costs and financing arrangements that differ from the standalone company.

### Business Takeaway

Mobility Global separated from S&P Global in July 2026. Subscription retention, dealer ROI, data coverage and workflow attachment drive returns.

## Industry, TAM & Market Share

Used-vehicle transactions, dealer productivity and automotive complexity support data demand. Industry cyclicality affects dealer budgets and transaction products. AI can improve workflows while also creating new interfaces and data-distribution risks. The defensible value lies in unique, reliable information rather than generic analytics.

### Market-Share Analysis

Comparable same-definition share data for the subject and its principal rivals were not established. TAM estimates and company-specific volume measures are not treated as directly comparable market shares. The positioning analysis below is more reliable than a table of unmatched percentages.

#### Competitive Scale / Position

| Company / Platform | Primary Position | Relative Scale | Growth Direction | Investment Relevance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Experian — AutoCheck | Direct: vehicle history and automotive data | Product scope; no matched operating-scale series | Competes for vehicle-history subscriptions | Customer choice in the stated segment only |
| Cox Automotive | Direct segments: dealer data, marketing and automotive workflows | Product scope; no matched operating-scale series | Overlap varies by dealer product | Customer choice in the stated segment only |
| J.D. Power; GlobalData | Direct segments: automotive market intelligence and analytics | Product scope; no matched operating-scale series | Competes in automotive intelligence | Customer choice in the stated segment only |

### Industry Takeaway

The defensible value lies in unique, reliable information rather than generic analytics. The base case requires evidence of profitable adoption within that market.

## Customer Economics

Subscription retention, dealer ROI, data coverage and workflow attachment drive returns. A trusted vehicle-history report has repeat demand, but dealers can negotiate and use alternatives. Transaction-sensitive revenue and manufacturer spending should be distinguished from recurring subscriptions.

### Customer-Economics Takeaway

The economic test is Debt service, cash conversion and capital returns. Transaction-sensitive revenue and manufacturer spending should be distinguished from recurring subscriptions.

## Competitive Landscape & Moat

### Competitive Landscape

Automotive history, dealer workflows and OEM intelligence define the peer set. CoStar’s property data and FICO’s credit scoring are excluded as weak cross-industry analogies.

| Competitor | Market Share | Positioning | Advantages vs. Company | Disadvantages vs. Company | Current Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Experian — AutoCheck | No consistent comparable series | Direct: vehicle history and automotive data | Alternative vehicle-history data and dealer distribution | CARFAX has a distinct consumer/dealer brand | Competes for vehicle-history subscriptions |
| Cox Automotive | No consistent comparable series | Direct segments: dealer data, marketing and automotive workflows | Dealer software and marketplace relationships | Not identical to CARFAX's vehicle-history corpus | Overlap varies by dealer product |
| J.D. Power; GlobalData | No consistent comparable series | Direct segments: automotive market intelligence and analytics | Industry research and OEM relationships | Different data assets and consumer offerings | Competes in automotive intelligence |

### Moat Assessment

CARFAX brand trust, longitudinal vehicle records and industry distribution create a strong data advantage. The moat depends on continued access to differentiated records and useful integration into customer decisions. Competition and data rights remain relevant.

**Moat direction:** Stable — an analytical judgment about product and distribution economics, not a measured market-share claim.

### Competitive Takeaway

CARFAX brand trust, longitudinal vehicle records and industry distribution create a strong data advantage. The direct rivals determine commercial pressure; diversified or sector anchors provide valuation context and are not substitutes for direct competition.

## Financial Profile

### Historical Financials

Financial reporting periods follow the issuer's fiscal year: completed FY rows plus standalone current-year quarters and cumulative H1/9M for FY2026. Revenue, FCF and SBC are flows; cash is a period-end balance. FCF = operating cash flow minus property/equipment capex from SEC company facts; quarterly FCF after Q1 and any quarterly SBC derived from YTD are visibly marked. Missing values are N/D, not zero. Unit: USD millions. Data extracted from SEC-tagged filings as of 2026-11-07. Company-specific FCF definitions and acquisition effects may require further reconciliation.

| Period | Revenue | Growth | Gross Margin | Operating Margin | FCF | FCF Margin | SBC | Diluted Shares | Cash | Debt |
|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|
| FY2024 | 1,613 | 8.62% | 70.55% | 19.90% | 412 | 25.54% | 28 | N/D | 27 | 259 |
| FY2025 | 1,750 | 8.49% | 70.51% | 21.54% | 461 | 26.34% | 22 | N/D | 38 | 248 |
| Q2 FY2026 | $468 | N/D | N/D | 17.5% | N/D | N/D | N/D | 294.821 | $186 | N/D |
| H1 FY2026 | $923 | N/D | N/D | 17.7% | $177 (derived: CFO - capex) | 19.2% | $9 | 294.821 | $186 | N/D |

### Financial Takeaways

Q2 net income was $53 million and adjusted EBITDA $202 million. The spin included a $2 billion payment to S&P Global and materially increased debt. Historical combined FCF is therefore not standalone owner cash without adjusting for interest, taxes and corporate costs. The model uses after-financing EPS and includes the initiated dividend at its assumed current annual rate.

Pre-spin results are carve-out accounts. The $2 billion distribution to S&P Global and new standalone debt change the capital structure; historical weighted share counts are not a clean standalone EPS denominator. Use approximately 294.8 million current shares and standalone financing costs.

**Financial direction:** Mixed — assess the reported trend alongside dilution and the balance sheet.

## Management & Capital Allocation

The standalone team must establish execution credibility and capital discipline. Priorities should be integration, product relevance and leverage management. Monitor recurring growth and actual standalone cash conversion before assigning a full information-services premium.

### Management Takeaway

Monitor recurring growth and actual standalone cash conversion before assigning a full information-services premium.

## Valuation

### Current Valuation

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Price Snapshot | $19.32 — 2026-11-03 regular-session close, America/New_York |
| Market Capitalization | $5.46B |
| Enterprise Value | $7.28B |
| Trailing P/E | 26.63 |
| Provider forward P/E | 12.39 |
| EV / Sales | 4.01 |

### Comparable Company Analysis

| Company | Relevance | Public / Private | Forward P/E | EV / Sales | Growth / Margin / Risk Context |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MBGL — Mobility Global, Inc. | Subject company | Public | 12.39 | 4.01 | automotive data and analytics; 3Y revenue-growth estimate 7.72%; operating margin 22.38% |
| Experian Automotive | Direct operating competitor / substitute | Operating business of listed Experian | N/A | N/A | direct vehicle history and automotive data; no compatible standalone public multiple used |
| Experian — AutoCheck | Direct: vehicle history and automotive data | Operating product / listed parent | N/D — no matched snapshot collected | N/D — no matched snapshot collected | Competes for vehicle-history subscriptions |
| Cox Automotive | Direct segments: dealer data, marketing and automotive workflows | Private | N/D — no matched snapshot collected | N/D — no matched snapshot collected | Overlap varies by dealer product |
| J.D. Power; GlobalData | Direct segments: automotive market intelligence and analytics | Mixed / standalone valuation not used | N/D — no matched snapshot collected | N/D — no matched snapshot collected | Competes in automotive intelligence |

**Comparable takeaway:** Automotive history, dealer workflows and OEM intelligence define the peer set. CoStar’s property data and FICO’s credit scoring are excluded as weak cross-industry analogies. Quoted multiples retain their original dated snapshot; missing matched multiples are not estimated. Consolidated parent multiples do not isolate the competing product. No mechanical peer average is used.

The base terminal P/E is 20×, versus the provider's current forward P/E of 12.39×. Holding that quoted multiple constant on this model's 2029 EPS gives an illustrative present value of **$14.69**, versus the central base FV of **$23.35**. Earnings definitions differ, so this is a sensitivity check; it makes the dependence on a rerating or derating explicit.

### Valuation Scenarios

| Scenario | Key Assumptions | Fair Value | Probability | Probability Rationale | Return From Price Snapshot |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 3Y revenue CAGR 3%; sustainable 2029 EPS $0.90 after compensation; 14× P/E; 12% discount rate; Industry weakness and standalone costs limit 2029 sustainable EPS to $0.90. | $9.54 | 25% | Execution, financing or competitive setbacks remain credible | -50.6% |
| Base | 3Y revenue CAGR 8%; sustainable 2029 EPS $1.60 after compensation; 20× P/E; 12% discount rate; Recurring growth and disciplined costs produce $1.60 of 2029 sustainable EPS. | $23.35 | 50% | Most likely operating trajectory, requiring measurable progress | +20.9% |
| Bull | 3Y revenue CAGR 12%; sustainable 2029 EPS $2.30 after compensation; 25× P/E; 12% discount rate; Strong data monetization and deleveraging produce $2.30 of 2029 sustainable EPS. | $41.50 | 25% | Successful product conversion and operating leverage; not assured | +114.8% |
| **Probability-Weighted** | Sum of each scenario value × its probability | $24.44 | **100%** | Judgmental scenario probabilities | +26.5% |

### Valuation Takeaway

- **Primary valuation method:** Present value of sustainable 2029 equity earnings × scenario P/E, plus assumed interim dividends. The three-year discount horizon approximates late-2029 earning power.
- **Cross-check methods:** Direct competition, quoted peer multiples, current cash conversion, and the separate revenue/share/net-margin bridge in [the valuation workpaper](../valuation/watchlist_models_2026-10-21.md).
- **Key valuation dependencies:** CARFAX retention and B2B growth; Standalone costs and data access; Debt service, cash conversion and capital returns. All forward figures are independent research assumptions, not company guidance or consensus.
- **Valuation confidence / Risk Level:** 62/100 / Medium. Scenario values are sensitive to sustainable earnings and terminal multiples.
- **Margin-of-safety conclusion:** Buy at $18.52. New-file boundaries use Strong Buy = min(P/W FV ÷ 1.5, 1.1 × bear FV), Buy upper = P/W FV ÷ 1.25, Avoid above = P/W FV ÷ 0.90. Returns are to present fair value, not annualized returns or price targets for a particular date.

## Analyst Questions

The table consolidates related questions and follow-ups from each material participant in the complete call.

| Analyst / Firm | Core Question | Management Response | Research Read-Through |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scott Wurtzel / Wolfe Research | How will the CARFAX selling strategy support growth? | Management said new offerings support later growth. | Confirm that this opportunity converts into profitable recurring demand. |
| Craig Huber / Huber Research Partners | Why is the cross-selling approach being revised? | Management said the initial approach underperformed and is being changed. | Confirm that this opportunity converts into profitable recurring demand. |
| Jeff Meuler / Baird | How much dealer-penetration opportunity remains? | Management said existing products retain room for expansion. | Confirm that this opportunity converts into profitable recurring demand. |
| Will Qi / RBC Capital Markets | How is One Mobility progressing, and does the outlook assume a macroeconomic rebound? | Management said launches are progressing and the outlook does not assume a macroeconomic rebound. | Confirm that this opportunity converts into profitable recurring demand. |
| Toni Kaplan / Morgan Stanley | How do sales recalibration and OEM demand affect the outlook? | Management described execution changes alongside durable manufacturer demand. | Confirm that this opportunity converts into profitable recurring demand. |
| Wahid Amin / Barclays | What supports a second-half recovery? | Management said customer retention supports the installed business's economics. | Treat the stated timetable as conditional on demonstrated execution. |
| Keegan Anaco / Wells Fargo | What differentiates the Polk data franchise? | Management said the depth of its historical data strengthens differentiation. | Confirm that this opportunity converts into profitable recurring demand. |
| Rajiv Bhatia / Morningstar | How does the listings strategy affect investment and margins? | Management said scale funds investment and margin improvement. | Confirm that this opportunity converts into profitable recurring demand. |

### Analyst-Q&A Takeaway

Historical data and installed products support durability, while management acknowledged weak initial cross-selling execution. Revised selling and new launches must restore growth without relying on a macro rebound.

## Thesis Monitoring

| Driver | Current State | Positive Trigger / Catalyst | Negative Trigger / Falsifier | What It Changes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CARFAX retention and B2B growth | Proprietary vehicle information, trusted brands and embedded customer workflows can support durable recurring economics. | Revenue trajectory sustains approximately 8% annual growth on a comparable basis | Growth remains below the 3% bear assumption over a full operating cycle | Revenue outlook and scenario probabilities |
| Standalone costs and data access | Subscription retention, dealer ROI, data coverage and workflow attachment drive returns. | After-cost earnings progress toward the base implied net margin of 20.6% | Competition, credit losses or service costs make that margin trajectory unattainable | Margins, moat score and valuation multiple |
| Debt service, cash conversion and capital returns | Q2 net income was $53 million and adjusted EBITDA $202 million. | Financing and compensation remain consistent with 294.8M economic shares in the 2029 base case | Required capital or cumulative dilution materially exceeds the model without matching earnings | Financial score, confidence and downside value |

## Quality & Opportunity Scorecards

### Quality Score

| Component | Score | Weight | Weighted Contribution | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Business durability and economics | 89 | 25% | 22.3 | Subscription retention, dealer ROI, data coverage and workflow attachment drive returns. |
| Moat and competitive position | 87 | 25% | 21.8 | CARFAX brand trust, longitudinal vehicle records and industry distribution create a strong data advantage. |
| Growth runway and durability | 73 | 20% | 14.6 | Used-vehicle transactions, dealer productivity and automotive complexity support data demand. |
| Financial quality and balance sheet | 73 | 15% | 11.0 | Q2 net income was $53 million and adjusted EBITDA $202 million. |
| Management, governance and capital allocation | 72 | 15% | 10.8 | The standalone team must establish execution credibility and capital discipline. |
| **Quality Score** | **80.4** | **100%** | **80.4** | Weighted score, independent of ownership and current price |

- **Quality Tier:** A
- **Speculative override:** None

### Opportunity Score

| Component | Raw Input | Normalized Score | Weight | Weighted Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quality | 80.4 | 80.4 | 30% | 24.1 |
| Probability-weighted upside | +26.5% | 100.0 | 35% | 35.0 |
| Bear-case downside | -50.6% | 0.0 | 20% | 0.0 |
| Risk / valuation confidence | 62 | 62.0 | 15% | 9.3 |
| **Opportunity Score** |  | **68.4** | **100%** | **68.4** |

- **Opportunity Rank:** #12 of 76
- **Zone Status:** Buy

## Portfolio Context

- **Tracking tier:** On the Radar
- **Owned:** No
- **Tracking source of truth:** `ontheradar.md`
- **Portfolio source of truth:** `portfolio/holdings.md`
- **Scoring independence:** Ownership, account, shares, position size and cost basis do not change research, valuation, Quality, Opportunity, rank or zones.

## Investment Decision History

| Timestamp | Price | Rating | Zone Status | Buy Zone | Strong Buy Zone | Avoid Chasing Above | Base FV | P/W FV | P/W Return | Quality | Opportunity / Rank | Change / Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-21 (America/New_York) | $18.52 | Buy | Buy | >$10.49–$19.55 | ≤ $10.49 | > $27.16 | $23.35 | $24.44 | +32.0% | 80.4 | 68.7 / #9 | Initial missing-file analysis; common-universe ranking; independent scenario assumptions |

---

## Material Sources

| Source | Type | Date / Period | What It Supports |
|---|---|---|---|
| [Mobility Global Reports Second Quarter 2026 Financial Results :: Mobility Global, Inc. (MBGL)](https://ir.mobilityglobal.com/news-events/press-releases/detail/139/mobility-global-reports-second-quarter-2026-financial-results) | Company IR / earnings filing | Q2 2026 | Latest operating results, guidance, products and financial supplement |
| [MBGL complete earnings-call transcript](https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/mbgl/transcripts/704668-q2-2026/) | Transcript | Q2 2026 | Prepared remarks and all material Q&A exchanges |
| [MBGL regular-session historical price](https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/mbgl/history/) | Market data | 2026-10-20 close | Common price used in returns, scores and zones |
| [MBGL valuation statistics](https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/mbgl/statistics/) | Market data | 2026-10-20 close; ratios retrieved 2026-10-21 | Market capitalization, shares, quoted multiples and current ratios |
| [MBGL historical income statement](https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/mbgl/financials/income-statement/) | Standardized financial statements | Latest reported period and two preceding fiscal years | Historical income statement; source-native currency and definitions |
| [MBGL historical balance sheet](https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/mbgl/financials/balance-sheet/) | Standardized financial statements | Latest reported period and two preceding fiscal years | Historical balance sheet; source-native currency and definitions |
| [MBGL historical cash flows](https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/mbgl/financials/cash-flow-statement/) | Standardized financial statements | Latest reported period and two preceding fiscal years | Historical cash flows; source-native currency and definitions |
| [FICO statistics](https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/fico/statistics/) | Comparable-company market data | 2026-10-20 regular close | Peer multiples and financial context; public quote basis |
| [Mobility separation information statement — competition](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2090312/000110465926057155/tm2528763d7_ex99-1.htm) | Regulatory filing / primary product evidence | 2026 separation statement; checked 2026-10-28 | Experian, Cox Automotive, J.D. Power and automotive intelligence overlap |
| [SEC XBRL company facts — MBGL](https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0002090312.json) | Regulatory filing (as tagged) | FY2026, through 2026-06-30 | Current-year standalone-quarter and year-to-date source facts for FCF, SBC, revenue and other reported metrics |