Audience scale and a broader service stack can grow revenue faster than housing transactions. Q2 revenue rose 18% to $772 million, led by rentals and mortgages. The investment requires better monetization without damaging consumer trust or agent economics. Housing recovery is helpful, but should not be the sole justification for sustained market-share gains or a premium multiple.

What the Market May Be Mispricing

Debate	Research judgment
Audience monetization and agent ROI	Audience scale and a broader service stack can grow revenue faster than housing transactions.
Rental growth and mortgage conversion	Audience engagement, agent returns, rental advertiser retention, mortgage conversion and revenue per transaction drive value.
Housing cycle, competition and SBC	Q2 rentals revenue grew 31% and mortgages 75%, while adjusted EBITDA margin was 23%.

Zillow operates housing discovery and connects consumers with agents, rentals, mortgage products and other transaction services. It monetizes advertising, lead or transaction-based agent relationships, rental listings and mortgage activity. Its value proposition is a broad consumer audience and a more integrated housing journey. Z is the nonvoting Class C share; valuation must include the other equity classes and use a consistent group share basis.

Business Takeaway

Zillow operates housing discovery and connects consumers with agents, rentals, mortgage products and other transaction services. Audience engagement, agent returns, rental advertiser retention, mortgage conversion and revenue per transaction drive value.

Housing search, rentals and financing are large categories with cyclical transactions and changing industry practices. Competition from portals, brokerages and integrated transaction platforms is substantial. Total home value is not equivalent to the fee pool Zillow can monetize.

Market-Share Analysis

Comparable same-definition share data for the subject and its principal rivals were not established. TAM estimates and company-specific volume measures are not treated as directly comparable market shares. The positioning analysis below is more reliable than a table of unmatched percentages.

Competitive Scale / Position

Company / Platform	Primary Position	Relative Scale	Growth Direction	Investment Relevance
Realtor.com — News Corp	Direct: U.S. housing discovery and agent leads	Product scope; no matched operating-scale series	Competes for home-search users and agent spend	Customer choice in the stated segment only
CoStar (CSGP) — Homes.com; Apartments.com	Direct segments: home search and rental listings	Product scope; no matched operating-scale series	Competes in specified housing/rental products	Customer choice in the stated segment only
Rocket (RKT) — Redfin; mortgage operations	Segment-specific: housing discovery and mortgage origination	Product scope; no matched operating-scale series	Compare Redfin and lending separately	Customer choice in the stated segment only

Industry Takeaway

Total home value is not equivalent to the fee pool Zillow can monetize. The base case requires evidence of profitable adoption within that market.

Competitive Landscape

Consumer portals, rental advertising and mortgages have distinct economics. CoStar and Rocket overlap through named products; consolidated multiples do not isolate those products.

Competitor	Market Share	Positioning	Advantages vs. Company	Disadvantages vs. Company	Current Direction
Realtor.com — News Corp	No consistent comparable series	Direct: U.S. housing discovery and agent leads	Listing and agent-advertising relationships	Different audience and transaction-service mix	Competes for home-search users and agent spend
CoStar (CSGP) — Homes.com; Apartments.com	No consistent comparable series	Direct segments: home search and rental listings	Property marketplaces and sales distribution	Commercial-property data does not equal consumer portal economics	Competes in specified housing/rental products
Rocket (RKT) — Redfin; mortgage operations	No consistent comparable series	Segment-specific: housing discovery and mortgage origination	Integrated brokerage/lending distribution	Mortgage credit/capital mix differs from portal advertising	Compare Redfin and lending separately

Moat Assessment

Consumer brand, housing data and marketplace liquidity create a meaningful audience advantage. Agents and landlords can use multiple platforms, so monetization is less exclusive than audience scale suggests. Maintaining trust is part of the moat.

Moat direction: Stable — an analytical judgment about product and distribution economics, not a measured market-share claim.

Competitive Takeaway

Consumer brand, housing data and marketplace liquidity create a meaningful audience advantage. The direct rivals determine commercial pressure; diversified or sector anchors provide valuation context and are not substitutes for direct competition.

Historical Financials

Financial reporting periods follow the issuer's fiscal year: completed FY rows plus standalone current-year quarters and cumulative H1/9M for FY2026. Revenue, FCF and SBC are flows; cash is a period-end balance. FCF = operating cash flow minus property/equipment capex from SEC company facts; quarterly FCF after Q1 and any quarterly SBC derived from YTD are visibly marked. Missing values are N/D, not zero. Unit: USD millions. Data extracted from SEC-tagged filings as of 2026-11-07. Company-specific FCF definitions and acquisition effects may require further reconciliation.

Period	Revenue	Growth	Gross Margin	Operating Margin	FCF	FCF Margin	SBC	Diluted Shares	Cash	Debt
FY2024	2,236	14.96%	76.43%	-8.50%	285	12.75%	448	234	1,862	660
FY2025	2,583	15.52%	74.14%	-1.24%	235	9.10%	390	254	1,303	457
Q1 FY2026	$708	N/D	73.3%	5.1%	$166 (derived: CFO - capex)	23.4%	$81	239.644	$678	N/D
Q2 FY2026	$772	N/D	72.8%	-1.3%	−$25 (derived: current YTD - prior YTD)	-3.2%	$88 (derived: current YTD - prior YTD)	227.896	$572	N/D
H1 FY2026	$1,480	N/D	73.0%	1.8%	$141 (derived: CFO - capex)	9.5%	$169	233.891	$572	N/D
Q3 FY2026	$724	N/D	71.3%	-22.2%	$128 (derived: current YTD - prior YTD)	17.7%	$86 (derived: current YTD - prior YTD)	225.305	$602	N/D
9M FY2026	$2,204	N/D	72.5%	-6.1%	$269 (derived: CFO - capex)	12.2%	$255	229.589	$602	N/D

Financial Takeaways

Q2 rentals revenue grew 31% and mortgages 75%, while adjusted EBITDA margin was 23%. TTM FCF of $258 million was below SBC of $363 million. Scenario EPS includes ongoing compensation and mortgage costs. Repurchases should be evaluated against net dilution and the cash needs of new services.

Financial direction: Mixed — assess the reported trend alongside dilution and the balance sheet.

Current Valuation

Metric	Value
Price Snapshot	$30.98 — 2026-11-03 regular-session close, America/New_York
Market Capitalization	$7.30B
Enterprise Value	$7.16B
Trailing P/E	143.58
Provider forward P/E	12.52
EV / Sales	2.55

Comparable Company Analysis

Company	Relevance	Public / Private	Forward P/E	EV / Sales	Growth / Margin / Risk Context
Z — Zillow Group, Inc.	Subject company	Public	12.52	2.55	housing marketplace and services; 3Y revenue-growth estimate 12.43%; operating margin 2.70%
Realtor.com	Direct operating competitor / substitute	Operating business of listed News Corp	N/A	N/A	consumer real-estate discovery and agent leads; no compatible standalone public multiple used
CSGP — CoStar	Direct Homes.com/Apartments.com segments; group mix differs	Public	21.02	3.73	property information and real estate marketplaces; 3Y revenue-growth estimate 13.04%; operating margin 2.17%
RKT — Rocket Companies	Redfin/housing and mortgage overlap; not a pure portal multiple	Public	17.48	6.01	mortgage origination and housing distribution; 3Y revenue-growth estimate 20.64%; operating margin 20.04%
Realtor.com — News Corp	Direct: U.S. housing discovery and agent leads	Operating product / listed parent	N/D — no matched snapshot collected	N/D — no matched snapshot collected	Competes for home-search users and agent spend

Comparable takeaway: Consumer portals, rental advertising and mortgages have distinct economics. CoStar and Rocket overlap through named products; consolidated multiples do not isolate those products. Quoted multiples retain their original dated snapshot; missing matched multiples are not estimated. Consolidated parent multiples do not isolate the competing product. No mechanical peer average is used.

The base terminal P/E is 24×, versus the provider's current forward P/E of 12.52×. Holding that quoted multiple constant on this model's 2029 EPS gives an illustrative present value of $19.44, versus the central base FV of $37.26. Earnings definitions differ, so this is a sensitivity check; it makes the dependence on a rerating or derating explicit.

Valuation Scenarios

Scenario	Key Assumptions	Fair Value	Probability	Probability Rationale	Return From Price Snapshot
Bear	3Y revenue CAGR 3%; sustainable 2029 EPS $0.70 after compensation; 16× P/E; 14% discount rate; Housing and monetization pressure limit 2029 economic EPS to $0.70.	$7.56	25%	Execution, financing or competitive setbacks remain credible	-75.6%
Base	3Y revenue CAGR 13%; sustainable 2029 EPS $2.30 after compensation; 24× P/E; 14% discount rate; Services expansion and a normalized market produce $2.30 of 2029 economic EPS.	$37.26	50%	Most likely operating trajectory, requiring measurable progress	+20.3%
Bull	3Y revenue CAGR 22%; sustainable 2029 EPS $4.00 after compensation; 30× P/E; 14% discount rate; Strong conversion and rental adoption produce $4 of 2029 economic EPS.	$81.00	25%	Successful product conversion and operating leverage; not assured	+161.5%
Probability-Weighted	Sum of each scenario value × its probability	$40.77	100%	Judgmental scenario probabilities	+31.6%

Valuation Takeaway

• Primary valuation method: Present value of sustainable 2029 equity earnings × scenario P/E, plus assumed interim dividends. The three-year discount horizon approximates late-2029 earning power.
• Cross-check methods: Direct competition, quoted peer multiples, current cash conversion, and the separate revenue/share/net-margin bridge in the valuation workpaper.
• Key valuation dependencies: Audience monetization and agent ROI; Rental growth and mortgage conversion; Housing cycle, competition and SBC. All forward figures are independent research assumptions, not company guidance or consensus.
• Valuation confidence / Risk Level: 50/100 / Medium-High. Scenario values are sensitive to sustainable earnings and terminal multiples.
• Margin-of-safety conclusion: Buy at $32.24. New-file boundaries use Strong Buy = min(P/W FV ÷ 1.5, 1.1 × bear FV), Buy upper = P/W FV ÷ 1.25, Avoid above = P/W FV ÷ 0.90. Returns are to present fair value, not annualized returns or price targets for a particular date.

Management's integrated housing strategy has improved revenue diversification. Capital allocation should remain disciplined after the earlier exit from home flipping. Monitor organic monetization, legal and competitive developments, and economic profitability rather than adjusted EBITDA alone.

Management Takeaway

Monitor organic monetization, legal and competitive developments, and economic profitability rather than adjusted EBITDA alone.

Analyzed call: Q2 2026, complete material Q&A · Research snapshot: 2026-10-21

The table consolidates related questions and follow-ups from each material participant in the complete call.

Analyst / Firm	Core Question	Management Response	Research Read-Through
Ryan McKeveny / Zelman	How do leadership changes and restructuring affect investment?	Management said it is building a leaner organization while preserving growth investment.	Confirm that this opportunity converts into profitable recurring demand.
Dan Kurnos / StoneX	How could Google compete with Zillow?	Management described Google as a competing entry point while emphasizing the broader housing ecosystem.	Stress monetization if competition or mix reduces economic yield.
Brad Erickson / RBC Capital Markets	How does rental growth support long-term earnings potential?	Management said rental growth supports long-term profit targets.	Confirm that this opportunity converts into profitable recurring demand.
Ron Josey / Citi	How do Preferred rollout and mortgage mix affect revenue timing?	Management said a shift toward mortgages creates a timing headwind.	Stress monetization if competition or mix reduces economic yield.
Nick Jones / BNP Paribas	How quickly can AI products be developed without reducing quality?	Management said development output is improving without sacrificing quality.	Confirm that this opportunity converts into profitable recurring demand.
Lloyd Walmsley / Mizuho Securities	How does the integrated mortgage experience affect segment revenue attribution?	Management said the integrated experience shifts segment revenue.	Confirm that this opportunity converts into profitable recurring demand.
Nikhil Devnani / Bernstein	How should reported residential growth be compared with the underlying outlook?	Management said underlying and reported growth need to be reconciled.	Treat the stated timetable as conditional on demonstrated execution.

Analyst-Q&A Takeaway

Rentals and integrated mortgages support monetization while segment attribution shifts reported growth. Leaner staffing and faster product development need to deliver GAAP profit after compensation, without weakening growth bets.

Source	Type	Date / Period	What It Supports
www.sec.gov	Company IR / earnings filing	Q2 2026	Latest operating results, guidance, products and financial supplement
Z complete earnings-call transcript	Transcript	Q2 2026	Prepared remarks and all material Q&A exchanges
Z regular-session historical price	Market data	2026-10-20 close	Common price used in returns, scores and zones
Z valuation statistics	Market data	2026-10-20 close; ratios retrieved 2026-10-21	Market capitalization, shares, quoted multiples and current ratios
Z historical income statement	Standardized financial statements	Latest reported period and two preceding fiscal years	Historical income statement; source-native currency and definitions
Z historical balance sheet	Standardized financial statements	Latest reported period and two preceding fiscal years	Historical balance sheet; source-native currency and definitions
Z historical cash flows	Standardized financial statements	Latest reported period and two preceding fiscal years	Historical cash flows; source-native currency and definitions
CoStar statistics	Comparable-company market data	2026-10-20 regular close	Peer multiples and financial context; public quote basis
Rocket Companies statistics	Comparable-company market data	2026-10-20 regular close	Peer multiples and financial context; public quote basis
2025 10-K — housing, rentals and mortgage competition	Regulatory filing / primary product evidence	FY2025; checked 2026-10-28	Portal versus mortgage and rental-market distinctions
SEC XBRL company facts — Z	Regulatory filing (as tagged)	FY2026, through 2026-09-30	Current-year standalone-quarter and year-to-date source facts for FCF, SBC, revenue and other reported metrics

Research context

• Company: Zillow Group, Inc.

• Ticker: Z

• Exchange: Nasdaq

• Sector / Industry: Communication Services / housing marketplace and services

• Template version: 2.7

• Research date: 2026-10-21

• Valuation / score price snapshot: $30.98 — 2026-11-03 regular-session close, America/New_York

• Tracking tier: Primary Watchlist

• Owned: Yes

• Primary operating period reviewed: Q2 2026

• Historical period reviewed: TTM, FY 2025, FY 2024; latest balance-sheet date shown below

• Latest investor presentation reviewed: Results release and associated financial tables; no separate slide deck materially used

• Latest earnings call reviewed: Q2 2026, complete material Q&A

• Latest post-earnings management commentary reviewed: No separate later management presentation incorporated

• Price snapshot date: 2026-11-03

• Price snapshot time / timezone: Regular-session close, America/New_York (including exchange half-days)

• Competitor / analyst-Q&A audit: 2026-10-28; original operating, price and valuation snapshots retained.

Z — Zillow Group, Inc.

Company & Research Metadata

• Company: Zillow Group, Inc.

• Ticker: Z

• Exchange: Nasdaq

• Sector / Industry: Communication Services / housing marketplace and services

• Template version: 2.7

• Research date: 2026-10-21

• Valuation / score price snapshot: $30.98 — 2026-11-03 regular-session close, America/New_York

• Tracking tier: Primary Watchlist

• Owned: Yes

• Primary operating period reviewed: Q2 2026

• Historical period reviewed: TTM, FY 2025, FY 2024; latest balance-sheet date shown below

• Latest investor presentation reviewed: Results release and associated financial tables; no separate slide deck materially used

• Latest earnings call reviewed: Q2 2026, complete material Q&A

• Latest post-earnings management commentary reviewed: No separate later management presentation incorporated

• Price snapshot date: 2026-11-03

• Price snapshot time / timezone: Regular-session close, America/New_York (including exchange half-days)

• Competitor / analyst-Q&A audit: 2026-10-28; original operating, price and valuation snapshots retained.

What's Changed Since Previous Review

Current Review: 2026-10-28

Previous Review: 2026-10-21

Update Trigger: Competitor relevance and analyst-Q&A correction

Area	Previous View	Current View	Investment Impact
Competition	Preceding operating and comparable-company classifications	Product/customer/geographic boundaries corrected; direct rivals separated from substitutes, partners and valuation anchors	Corrects the competitive comparison; does not by itself re-underwrite the valuation
Analyst questions	Prior source-linked Q&A summaries	Complete questions and sentence-form management answers; all 7 existing rows retained	Improves readability while preserving the recorded exchange meaning
Valuation and scores	Approved operating/price snapshots, scenarios, scores and decisions	Preserved	No price refresh, rerank or change to valuation assumptions in this correction pass

Thesis: No new fundamental thesis determination is made in this correction pass. The prior investment decision is preserved; the corrected competitive scope should govern the next substantive review.

Investment Snapshot

Metric	Current View
Price Snapshot	$30.98 — 2026-11-03 regular-session close, America/New_York
Rating / Zone Status	Buy
Bear / Base / Bull Fair Value	$7.56 / $37.26 / $81.00
Scenario Probabilities	25% / 50% / 25%
Probability-Weighted Fair Value	$40.77
Probability-Weighted Expected Return	+31.6%
Bear-Case Return	-75.6%
Strong Buy Zone	≤ $8.32
Buy Zone	>$8.32–$32.62
Avoid Chasing Above	> $45.30
Quality Score / Tier	73.8 / Tier B
Opportunity Score / Rank	64.6 / #18 of 76
Risk Level	Medium-High
Tracking / Ownership	Primary Watchlist / Owned

Decision rationale: Z is Buy at $32.24, with +26.5% probability-weighted upside and -76.6% bear-case return. Audience scale and a broader service stack can grow revenue faster than housing transactions. Confidence is 50/100 because the earnings conversion, competitive and capital assumptions below remain conditional.

Investment Thesis

Audience scale and a broader service stack can grow revenue faster than housing transactions. Q2 revenue rose 18% to $772 million, led by rentals and mortgages. The investment requires better monetization without damaging consumer trust or agent economics. Housing recovery is helpful, but should not be the sole justification for sustained market-share gains or a premium multiple.

What the Market May Be Mispricing

Debate	Research judgment
Audience monetization and agent ROI	Audience scale and a broader service stack can grow revenue faster than housing transactions.
Rental growth and mortgage conversion	Audience engagement, agent returns, rental advertiser retention, mortgage conversion and revenue per transaction drive value.
Housing cycle, competition and SBC	Q2 rentals revenue grew 31% and mortgages 75%, while adjusted EBITDA margin was 23%.

Business Overview

Zillow operates housing discovery and connects consumers with agents, rentals, mortgage products and other transaction services. It monetizes advertising, lead or transaction-based agent relationships, rental listings and mortgage activity. Its value proposition is a broad consumer audience and a more integrated housing journey. Z is the nonvoting Class C share; valuation must include the other equity classes and use a consistent group share basis.

Business Takeaway

Zillow operates housing discovery and connects consumers with agents, rentals, mortgage products and other transaction services. Audience engagement, agent returns, rental advertiser retention, mortgage conversion and revenue per transaction drive value.

Industry, TAM & Market Share

Housing search, rentals and financing are large categories with cyclical transactions and changing industry practices. Competition from portals, brokerages and integrated transaction platforms is substantial. Total home value is not equivalent to the fee pool Zillow can monetize.

Market-Share Analysis

Comparable same-definition share data for the subject and its principal rivals were not established. TAM estimates and company-specific volume measures are not treated as directly comparable market shares. The positioning analysis below is more reliable than a table of unmatched percentages.

Competitive Scale / Position

Company / Platform	Primary Position	Relative Scale	Growth Direction	Investment Relevance
Realtor.com — News Corp	Direct: U.S. housing discovery and agent leads	Product scope; no matched operating-scale series	Competes for home-search users and agent spend	Customer choice in the stated segment only
CoStar (CSGP) — Homes.com; Apartments.com	Direct segments: home search and rental listings	Product scope; no matched operating-scale series	Competes in specified housing/rental products	Customer choice in the stated segment only
Rocket (RKT) — Redfin; mortgage operations	Segment-specific: housing discovery and mortgage origination	Product scope; no matched operating-scale series	Compare Redfin and lending separately	Customer choice in the stated segment only

Industry Takeaway

Total home value is not equivalent to the fee pool Zillow can monetize. The base case requires evidence of profitable adoption within that market.

Customer Economics

Audience engagement, agent returns, rental advertiser retention, mortgage conversion and revenue per transaction drive value. Integrating services can improve conversion but adds operational and regulatory complexity. Lead volume is valuable only when customers and partners earn attractive outcomes.

Customer-Economics Takeaway

The economic test is Housing cycle, competition and SBC. Lead volume is valuable only when customers and partners earn attractive outcomes.

Competitive Landscape & Moat

Competitive Landscape

Consumer portals, rental advertising and mortgages have distinct economics. CoStar and Rocket overlap through named products; consolidated multiples do not isolate those products.

Competitor	Market Share	Positioning	Advantages vs. Company	Disadvantages vs. Company	Current Direction
Realtor.com — News Corp	No consistent comparable series	Direct: U.S. housing discovery and agent leads	Listing and agent-advertising relationships	Different audience and transaction-service mix	Competes for home-search users and agent spend
CoStar (CSGP) — Homes.com; Apartments.com	No consistent comparable series	Direct segments: home search and rental listings	Property marketplaces and sales distribution	Commercial-property data does not equal consumer portal economics	Competes in specified housing/rental products
Rocket (RKT) — Redfin; mortgage operations	No consistent comparable series	Segment-specific: housing discovery and mortgage origination	Integrated brokerage/lending distribution	Mortgage credit/capital mix differs from portal advertising	Compare Redfin and lending separately

Moat Assessment

Consumer brand, housing data and marketplace liquidity create a meaningful audience advantage. Agents and landlords can use multiple platforms, so monetization is less exclusive than audience scale suggests. Maintaining trust is part of the moat.

Moat direction: Stable — an analytical judgment about product and distribution economics, not a measured market-share claim.

Competitive Takeaway

Consumer brand, housing data and marketplace liquidity create a meaningful audience advantage. The direct rivals determine commercial pressure; diversified or sector anchors provide valuation context and are not substitutes for direct competition.

Financial Profile

Historical Financials

Financial reporting periods follow the issuer's fiscal year: completed FY rows plus standalone current-year quarters and cumulative H1/9M for FY2026. Revenue, FCF and SBC are flows; cash is a period-end balance. FCF = operating cash flow minus property/equipment capex from SEC company facts; quarterly FCF after Q1 and any quarterly SBC derived from YTD are visibly marked. Missing values are N/D, not zero. Unit: USD millions. Data extracted from SEC-tagged filings as of 2026-11-07. Company-specific FCF definitions and acquisition effects may require further reconciliation.

Period	Revenue	Growth	Gross Margin	Operating Margin	FCF	FCF Margin	SBC	Diluted Shares	Cash	Debt
FY2024	2,236	14.96%	76.43%	-8.50%	285	12.75%	448	234	1,862	660
FY2025	2,583	15.52%	74.14%	-1.24%	235	9.10%	390	254	1,303	457
Q1 FY2026	$708	N/D	73.3%	5.1%	$166 (derived: CFO - capex)	23.4%	$81	239.644	$678	N/D
Q2 FY2026	$772	N/D	72.8%	-1.3%	−$25 (derived: current YTD - prior YTD)	-3.2%	$88 (derived: current YTD - prior YTD)	227.896	$572	N/D
H1 FY2026	$1,480	N/D	73.0%	1.8%	$141 (derived: CFO - capex)	9.5%	$169	233.891	$572	N/D
Q3 FY2026	$724	N/D	71.3%	-22.2%	$128 (derived: current YTD - prior YTD)	17.7%	$86 (derived: current YTD - prior YTD)	225.305	$602	N/D
9M FY2026	$2,204	N/D	72.5%	-6.1%	$269 (derived: CFO - capex)	12.2%	$255	229.589	$602	N/D

Financial Takeaways

Q2 rentals revenue grew 31% and mortgages 75%, while adjusted EBITDA margin was 23%. TTM FCF of $258 million was below SBC of $363 million. Scenario EPS includes ongoing compensation and mortgage costs. Repurchases should be evaluated against net dilution and the cash needs of new services.

Financial direction: Mixed — assess the reported trend alongside dilution and the balance sheet.

Management & Capital Allocation

Management's integrated housing strategy has improved revenue diversification. Capital allocation should remain disciplined after the earlier exit from home flipping. Monitor organic monetization, legal and competitive developments, and economic profitability rather than adjusted EBITDA alone.

Management Takeaway

Monitor organic monetization, legal and competitive developments, and economic profitability rather than adjusted EBITDA alone.

Valuation

Current Valuation

Metric	Value
Price Snapshot	$30.98 — 2026-11-03 regular-session close, America/New_York
Market Capitalization	$7.30B
Enterprise Value	$7.16B
Trailing P/E	143.58
Provider forward P/E	12.52
EV / Sales	2.55

Comparable Company Analysis

Company	Relevance	Public / Private	Forward P/E	EV / Sales	Growth / Margin / Risk Context
Z — Zillow Group, Inc.	Subject company	Public	12.52	2.55	housing marketplace and services; 3Y revenue-growth estimate 12.43%; operating margin 2.70%
Realtor.com	Direct operating competitor / substitute	Operating business of listed News Corp	N/A	N/A	consumer real-estate discovery and agent leads; no compatible standalone public multiple used
CSGP — CoStar	Direct Homes.com/Apartments.com segments; group mix differs	Public	21.02	3.73	property information and real estate marketplaces; 3Y revenue-growth estimate 13.04%; operating margin 2.17%
RKT — Rocket Companies	Redfin/housing and mortgage overlap; not a pure portal multiple	Public	17.48	6.01	mortgage origination and housing distribution; 3Y revenue-growth estimate 20.64%; operating margin 20.04%
Realtor.com — News Corp	Direct: U.S. housing discovery and agent leads	Operating product / listed parent	N/D — no matched snapshot collected	N/D — no matched snapshot collected	Competes for home-search users and agent spend

Comparable takeaway: Consumer portals, rental advertising and mortgages have distinct economics. CoStar and Rocket overlap through named products; consolidated multiples do not isolate those products. Quoted multiples retain their original dated snapshot; missing matched multiples are not estimated. Consolidated parent multiples do not isolate the competing product. No mechanical peer average is used.

The base terminal P/E is 24×, versus the provider's current forward P/E of 12.52×. Holding that quoted multiple constant on this model's 2029 EPS gives an illustrative present value of $19.44, versus the central base FV of $37.26. Earnings definitions differ, so this is a sensitivity check; it makes the dependence on a rerating or derating explicit.

Valuation Scenarios

Scenario	Key Assumptions	Fair Value	Probability	Probability Rationale	Return From Price Snapshot
Bear	3Y revenue CAGR 3%; sustainable 2029 EPS $0.70 after compensation; 16× P/E; 14% discount rate; Housing and monetization pressure limit 2029 economic EPS to $0.70.	$7.56	25%	Execution, financing or competitive setbacks remain credible	-75.6%
Base	3Y revenue CAGR 13%; sustainable 2029 EPS $2.30 after compensation; 24× P/E; 14% discount rate; Services expansion and a normalized market produce $2.30 of 2029 economic EPS.	$37.26	50%	Most likely operating trajectory, requiring measurable progress	+20.3%
Bull	3Y revenue CAGR 22%; sustainable 2029 EPS $4.00 after compensation; 30× P/E; 14% discount rate; Strong conversion and rental adoption produce $4 of 2029 economic EPS.	$81.00	25%	Successful product conversion and operating leverage; not assured	+161.5%
Probability-Weighted	Sum of each scenario value × its probability	$40.77	100%	Judgmental scenario probabilities	+31.6%

Valuation Takeaway

• Primary valuation method: Present value of sustainable 2029 equity earnings × scenario P/E, plus assumed interim dividends. The three-year discount horizon approximates late-2029 earning power.
• Cross-check methods: Direct competition, quoted peer multiples, current cash conversion, and the separate revenue/share/net-margin bridge in the valuation workpaper.
• Key valuation dependencies: Audience monetization and agent ROI; Rental growth and mortgage conversion; Housing cycle, competition and SBC. All forward figures are independent research assumptions, not company guidance or consensus.
• Valuation confidence / Risk Level: 50/100 / Medium-High. Scenario values are sensitive to sustainable earnings and terminal multiples.
• Margin-of-safety conclusion: Buy at $32.24. New-file boundaries use Strong Buy = min(P/W FV ÷ 1.5, 1.1 × bear FV), Buy upper = P/W FV ÷ 1.25, Avoid above = P/W FV ÷ 0.90. Returns are to present fair value, not annualized returns or price targets for a particular date.

Analyst Questions

The table consolidates related questions and follow-ups from each material participant in the complete call.

Analyst / Firm	Core Question	Management Response	Research Read-Through
Ryan McKeveny / Zelman	How do leadership changes and restructuring affect investment?	Management said it is building a leaner organization while preserving growth investment.	Confirm that this opportunity converts into profitable recurring demand.
Dan Kurnos / StoneX	How could Google compete with Zillow?	Management described Google as a competing entry point while emphasizing the broader housing ecosystem.	Stress monetization if competition or mix reduces economic yield.
Brad Erickson / RBC Capital Markets	How does rental growth support long-term earnings potential?	Management said rental growth supports long-term profit targets.	Confirm that this opportunity converts into profitable recurring demand.
Ron Josey / Citi	How do Preferred rollout and mortgage mix affect revenue timing?	Management said a shift toward mortgages creates a timing headwind.	Stress monetization if competition or mix reduces economic yield.
Nick Jones / BNP Paribas	How quickly can AI products be developed without reducing quality?	Management said development output is improving without sacrificing quality.	Confirm that this opportunity converts into profitable recurring demand.
Lloyd Walmsley / Mizuho Securities	How does the integrated mortgage experience affect segment revenue attribution?	Management said the integrated experience shifts segment revenue.	Confirm that this opportunity converts into profitable recurring demand.
Nikhil Devnani / Bernstein	How should reported residential growth be compared with the underlying outlook?	Management said underlying and reported growth need to be reconciled.	Treat the stated timetable as conditional on demonstrated execution.

Analyst-Q&A Takeaway

Rentals and integrated mortgages support monetization while segment attribution shifts reported growth. Leaner staffing and faster product development need to deliver GAAP profit after compensation, without weakening growth bets.

Thesis Monitoring

Driver	Current State	Positive Trigger / Catalyst	Negative Trigger / Falsifier	What It Changes
Audience monetization and agent ROI	Audience scale and a broader service stack can grow revenue faster than housing transactions.	Revenue trajectory sustains approximately 13% annual growth on a comparable basis	Growth remains below the 3% bear assumption over a full operating cycle	Revenue outlook and scenario probabilities
Rental growth and mortgage conversion	Audience engagement, agent returns, rental advertiser retention, mortgage conversion and revenue per transaction drive value.	After-cost earnings progress toward the base implied net margin of 13.1%	Competition, credit losses or service costs make that margin trajectory unattainable	Margins, moat score and valuation multiple
Housing cycle, competition and SBC	Q2 rentals revenue grew 31% and mortgages 75%, while adjusted EBITDA margin was 23%.	Financing and compensation remain consistent with 230.3M economic shares in the 2029 base case	Required capital or cumulative dilution materially exceeds the model without matching earnings	Financial score, confidence and downside value

Quality & Opportunity Scorecards

Quality Score

Component	Score	Weight	Weighted Contribution	Evidence
Business durability and economics	76	25%	19.0	Audience engagement, agent returns, rental advertiser retention, mortgage conversion and revenue per transaction drive value.
Moat and competitive position	79	25%	19.8	Consumer brand, housing data and marketplace liquidity create a meaningful audience advantage.
Growth runway and durability	77	20%	15.4	Housing search, rentals and financing are large categories with cyclical transactions and changing industry practices.
Financial quality and balance sheet	66	15%	9.9	Q2 rentals revenue grew 31% and mortgages 75%, while adjusted EBITDA margin was 23%.
Management, governance and capital allocation	65	15%	9.8	Management's integrated housing strategy has improved revenue diversification.
Quality Score	73.8	100%	73.8	Weighted score, independent of ownership and current price

• Quality Tier: B
• Speculative override: None

Opportunity Score

Component	Raw Input	Normalized Score	Weight	Weighted Contribution
Quality	73.8	73.8	30%	22.1
Probability-weighted upside	+31.6%	100.0	35%	35.0
Bear-case downside	-75.6%	0.0	20%	0.0
Risk / valuation confidence	50	50.0	15%	7.5
Opportunity Score		64.6	100%	64.6

• Opportunity Rank: #18 of 76
• Zone Status: Buy

Portfolio Context

• Tracking tier: Primary Watchlist
• Owned: Yes
• Tracking source of truth: my_watchlist.md
• Portfolio source of truth: portfolio/holdings.md
• Scoring independence: Ownership, account, shares, position size and cost basis do not change research, valuation, Quality, Opportunity, rank or zones.

Investment Decision History

Timestamp	Price	Rating	Zone Status	Buy Zone	Strong Buy Zone	Avoid Chasing Above	Base FV	P/W FV	P/W Return	Quality	Opportunity / Rank	Change / Rationale
2026-10-21 (America/New_York)	$32.24	Buy	Buy	>$8.32–$32.62	≤ $8.32	> $45.30	$37.26	$40.77	+26.5%	73.8	64.6 / #15	Initial missing-file analysis; common-universe ranking; independent scenario assumptions

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Material Sources

Source	Type	Date / Period	What It Supports
www.sec.gov	Company IR / earnings filing	Q2 2026	Latest operating results, guidance, products and financial supplement
Z complete earnings-call transcript	Transcript	Q2 2026	Prepared remarks and all material Q&A exchanges
Z regular-session historical price	Market data	2026-10-20 close	Common price used in returns, scores and zones
Z valuation statistics	Market data	2026-10-20 close; ratios retrieved 2026-10-21	Market capitalization, shares, quoted multiples and current ratios
Z historical income statement	Standardized financial statements	Latest reported period and two preceding fiscal years	Historical income statement; source-native currency and definitions
Z historical balance sheet	Standardized financial statements	Latest reported period and two preceding fiscal years	Historical balance sheet; source-native currency and definitions
Z historical cash flows	Standardized financial statements	Latest reported period and two preceding fiscal years	Historical cash flows; source-native currency and definitions
CoStar statistics	Comparable-company market data	2026-10-20 regular close	Peer multiples and financial context; public quote basis
Rocket Companies statistics	Comparable-company market data	2026-10-20 regular close	Peer multiples and financial context; public quote basis
2025 10-K — housing, rentals and mortgage competition	Regulatory filing / primary product evidence	FY2025; checked 2026-10-28	Portal versus mortgage and rental-market distinctions
SEC XBRL company facts — Z	Regulatory filing (as tagged)	FY2026, through 2026-09-30	Current-year standalone-quarter and year-to-date source facts for FCF, SBC, revenue and other reported metrics