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Price snapshot: 2026-11-06 · Research: 2026-11-09 · Saved analysis, not live market data
Ratings and fair values are independent, dated research opinions—not personalized investment advice. Disclaimer
The reference price is above the probability-weighted fair value.
Dashed marker: reference price $308.67. Scenario values are present fair values, not dated price targets.
Owner FCF +3.5% annually for 10 years; 9.5% discount rate; 2.5% terminal growth; lower domain expansion or weaker allowable pricing
Contract/pricing restrictions and domain churn could materially limit compoundingOwner FCF +7.0% annually for 10 years; 8.5% discount rate; 3.0% terminal growth; steady renewals and permitted price increases
Durable registry economics, but 2026 registration spike normalizesOwner FCF +8.5% annually for 10 years; 8.0% discount rate; 3.5% terminal growth; stronger registration demand and successful adjacencies
Sustained high growth and successful execution would justify additional upsideFolioFacts zones calculated from the saved fair and bear values at the dated reference price. Live zones can change with research.
Verisign is the registry operator behind .com and .net rather than a retail registrar. Every domain registration or renewal processed through participating registrars creates a wholesale registry payment. Existing web addresses are important digital identities for customers, so an established domain can be considerably more durable than an ordinary discretionary technology purchase.
Reported FY totals, current FY quarters and cumulative YTD are grouped separately.
Scale within group: $1,800M
Scale within group: $460M
Scale within group: $1,400M
Completed FY, standalone current-year quarters and cumulative YTD. No TTM figures.
Each row covers a completed fiscal year. Scale within this group: $1,200M.
Each row covers an independent quarter; derived cash flow is labeled. Scale within this group: $280M.
YTD totals overlap the quarters above and must not be added to them. Scale within this group: $740M.
Each annual, quarter and YTD group uses a separate scale. SBC / FCF is a same-period comparison, not a literal employee cash payment. N/M means FCF is zero or negative (or SBC is negative); missing is not zero. Issuer FCF definitions may vary.
Only completed fiscal years and currently open fiscal-year quarters/YTD appear in charts. Standalone quarters and cumulative YTD are separate; missing is never zero. Legacy TTM rows remain in archival source text. The full financial profile below preserves definitions, accounting caveats, and period-end balance details.
This score uses the saved price and research fundamentals. Creator Watchlist calculates the current score and rank using verified market prices.
Watch the evidence behind the thesis, not just the ticker.
Several quarters of durable net additions with stable cohorts
Promotional-domain deletions exceed new additions
Affects: Long-run FCF growth assumptionsFirst-year retention holds up when 2026 cohorts mature
Persistent decline in like-for-like cohort retention
Affects: Sustainable domain volume and terminal growthAllowed increases flow through revenue with limited volume impact
Regulatory amendments reduce pricing rights
Affects: Core cash-flow compoundingMeasurable adoption and economically valuable premium registrations
Low adoption, excessive marketing spend or cannibalization
Affects: Upside optionality, capital allocationClear unit pricing, paying enterprise users, attractive margins
Low adoption, adverse liability or security outcomes
Affects: Optional new-product valuationCash flow catches up with operating earnings
Repeated cash conversion shortfalls amid rising shareholder distributions
Affects: Owner-cash-flow starting pointStable renewal and unchanged rights
Price restrictions or material availability/security incident
Affects: Moat and required returnVerisign is the registry operator behind .com and .net rather than a retail registrar. Every domain registration or renewal processed through participating registrars creates a wholesale registry payment. Existing web addresses are important digital identities for customers, so an established domain can be considerably more durable than an ordinary discretionary technology purchase.
The investment attraction is not exciting new products. It is an entrenched registry base, regulated-but-valuable pricing rights, low incremental capital requirements, and cash generation that can support dividends and share retirement. New .com/.net registrations and allowable price increases together can compound revenue even if the addressable market grows slowly. The investment debate is whether faster 2026 domain growth survives first-renewal cohorts and whether the share price has already fully discounted that resilience.
Verisign provides registration and authoritative resolution infrastructure for .com and .net, and operates other registry and DNS services of smaller scale. Registrars such as GoDaddy and Namecheap are the direct paying customers for wholesale registrations. They own end-customer marketing and retail pricing. Verisign records fees largely over the relevant registration term, and related cash collections can differ from revenue recognition because of deferred revenue.
| Business / offering | Role and economics | Investment relevance |
|---|---|---|
| .com | Core global generic top-level domain registry; wholesale registration and renewal fees | Dominant economic engine; contract extends to November 2030 with presumptive renewal provisions |
| .net | Established generic domain registry | Smaller adjacent domain base, with a separate announced March 2027 wholesale price increase |
| Other registry/DNS services | Registry technology and authoritative DNS infrastructure | Supports operating scale and reliability; currently much smaller than .com/.net |
| .web | Newly secured generic TLD, with early rollout planned for late 2026 and general availability potentially April 2027 | More flexible marketing/pricing, but commercial demand remains unproven |
| Verisign Informed | High-assurance validation and credential-status services in beta | Potential adjacency to DNS reliability, without established material revenue |
For .com, a wholesale price adjustment from $10.26 to $10.97 began November 1, 2026; for .net, management announced an increase from $10.91 to $12.00 effective March 1, 2027. The fee increase is not equivalent to instant recognized revenue: management expects roughly half of the .com increase to flow through 2027 revenue, with most of the remainder in 2028.
Verisign's most valuable product is high-reliability registry access to a large installed base of digital identities. Its stable registry infrastructure supports exceptional margins, while direct customer acquisition costs largely sit with retail registrars. Pricing rights are valuable but contractual, not unlimited.
The relevant market is the global stock of registered domain names and the flow of registrations and renewals, rather than all internet spending. Demand responds to business formation, e-commerce, content creation, online identity and registrar promotions. Internet identifiers are embedded in global infrastructure and can be costly for established operators to replace, but domain registrations can fall during economic slowdowns and when promotional or speculative cohorts expire.
The .com/.net base finished 2023 near 172.7M names, fell to approximately 169M at the end of 2024, recovered to 173.5M at year-end 2025, and reached 182.5M on September 30, 2026. Those figures demonstrate that an excellent renewal business can still undergo periods of negative net volume growth. The 2026 AI-website-creation tailwind is plausible but not yet a guarantee of persistent high-single-digit domain expansion.
A directly comparable, current global TLD market-share series for all major registry operators was not assembled under uniform definitions. It would be misleading to use .com's large absolute domain count as a calculated percentage of a mixed market containing country-code names and different pricing regimes.
| Company / Platform | Primary Position | Relative Scale | Growth Direction | Investment Relevance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Verisign .com/.net | Established mass-market registry | 182.5M names | +6.1% YoY in Q3 2026 | Very large entrenched renewal base |
| Identity Digital and other gTLD operators | Alternative generic top-level domains | Fragmented extension portfolios; not directly comparable in this research | Not quantified on consistent basis | Can attract new registrations but rarely duplicate .com's ubiquity |
| Country-code registries, including .de and .uk | Important local identity alternatives | Deep regional adoption; distinct governance | Not quantified on consistent basis | Compete for domain registration choice in local markets |
| Retail registrars and web-platform offerings | Distribution layer and alternatives to dedicated websites | Direct end-customer contact, not equivalent registry substitutes | Distinct business models | Retail marketing and product bundling influence Verisign demand |
The industry benefits from the continuing need for persistent web identities, but .com's existing installed base, not an unlimited TAM expansion thesis, supports the valuation. The strong 2026 new-registration cycle should be normalized.
| Competitor | Market Share | Positioning | Advantages vs. Company | Disadvantages vs. Company | Current Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Identity Digital and other gTLD registries | N/D, not comparable | Alternative generic extensions | More extension choice, differing pricing flexibility | Much smaller installed bases for individual alternatives | Fragmented competition |
| National country-code registry operators | N/D, not comparable | Country-specific domain namespaces | Strong local identity and national recognition | Limited direct substitution for globally established .com brands | Mature regional alternatives |
| Hosted website, social identity and AI-agent platforms | N/A, substitutes not registries | Alternative ways to reach customers | Can reduce need for standalone websites | Often still depend on DNS/domains or lack ownership portability | Growing substitutes |
The moat comes from exclusivity under registry contracts, installed-base switching costs and unusually reliable DNS infrastructure. A registrar cannot replicate the .com authoritative registry simply by competing on retail pricing. Verisign reports decades of uninterrupted .com/.net DNS availability and is responsible for infrastructure on which a large volume of internet traffic depends. The downside of regulatory exclusivity is reliance on renewal and wholesale-price permissions controlled by external authorities.
Moat direction: Stable.
The material threat is less a competing vendor taking over .com registrations and more domain demand migrating to other identifiers, weak promotional-cohort renewals, or contractual price regulation that transfers economics away from shareholders.
Amounts in USD millions except gross/operating/FCF margins, revenue growth and diluted shares (millions). FCF is reported CFO less capital expenditures for property and equipment; quarterly FCF is derived by differencing reported cumulative cash flows. N/D means a balance-sheet value was not populated from a verified matched-period source. Completed fiscal years are annual totals; 2026 rows are standalone quarters or nine-month cumulative amounts—not TTM data.
| Period | Revenue | Growth | Gross Margin | Operating Margin | FCF | FCF Margin | SBC | Diluted Shares | Cash | Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2023 | $1,493.1M | 4.4% | 86.8% | 67.0% | $808.0M | 54.1% | $59.7M | 103.5M | N/D | N/D |
| FY2024 | $1,557.4M | 4.3% | 87.7% | 68.0% | $874.5M | 56.2% | $61.1M | 98.2M | N/D | N/D |
| FY2025 | $1,656.6M | 6.4% | 88.2% | 67.7% | $1,068.3M | 64.5% | $69.7M | 93.8M | $580.5M | $1,788.2M |
| Q1 FY2026 | $428.9M | 6.6% | 88.5% | 68.5% | $265.2M (derived) | 61.8% | $19.1M | 91.7M | N/D | N/D |
| Q2 FY2026 | $434.6M | 6.0% | 88.5% | 68.2% | $212.8M (derived) | 49.0% | $19.4M | 91.1M | N/D | N/D |
| Q3 FY2026 | $443.0M | 5.7% | 88.8% | 66.9% | $260.7M (derived) | 58.8% | $20.3M | 90.4M | $476.1M | $1,785.9M |
| 9M FY2026 | $1,306.5M | 6.1% | 88.6% | 67.8% | $738.7M | 56.5% | $58.8M | 91.1M | $476.1M | $1,785.9M |
The nine-month balance sheet is at the September 30 reporting date, not the sum of quarterly balances. Gross margin is calculated as revenue less cost of revenue, divided by revenue. The 2026 Q1 diluted-share figure is the quarter's weighted average, not period-end outstanding shares.
| Metric | FY2025 | 9M FY2026 |
|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | $1,091.1M | $772.3M |
| Capex | $22.8M | $33.6M |
| Free cash flow | $1,068.3M | $738.7M |
| SBC | $69.7M | $58.8M |
| SBC / FCF (matching period) | 6.5% | 8.0% |
| Repurchases | $881.6M | $620.0M |
| Dividends paid | $215.2M | $220.8M |
SBC/FCF is an analytical ratio of the matching period and not a separate FolioFacts financial-history input; FolioFacts derives the displayed ratio from period-matched figures. No TTM FCF or SBC series is used.
Q3 2026 revenue of $443.0M grew 5.7% year over year and operating income of $296.5M grew 4.3%, with operating margin near 66.9%. Net income was essentially flat at $212.6M, while diluted EPS rose to $2.35 due partly to lower share count. A $7.5M pretax loss on assets held for sale affected the quarter.
Full-year guidance following Q3 calls for 6.5%–7.0% domain-base growth, $1.755B–$1.760B revenue, $1.188B–$1.192B operating income and $55M–$65M capex. The domain-base growth guidance improved, but operating leverage did not expand in Q3. Nine-month 2026 FCF declined year over year, even as earnings increased; cash taxes, payment timing and operating expenses deserve monitoring.
As of September 30, 2026 Verisign held about $476M of cash and marketable securities against ~$1.79B senior notes, or ~$1.31B of net debt. Its ~$1.46B deferred revenue liability reflects services still to be delivered, not conventional interest-bearing financing. Negative book equity arises importantly from cumulative buybacks, not from an inability to produce cash.
Financial direction: Mixed — strong domain/revenue expansion, exceptionally high margins, but lower year-to-date operating cash generation and significant shareholder distributions.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Price Snapshot | $308.67, 2026-11-06 regular-session close |
| Market Capitalization | Approximately $27.7B |
| Enterprise Value | Approximately $29.0B (equity value plus reported net funded debt) |
| Trailing GAAP P/E | Approximately 33.2× |
| Market cap / FY2025 revenue | Approximately 16.7× |
| Market cap / FY2025 FCF | Approximately 25.9× |
The earnings multiple and price snapshot are dated research references, not live feeds. The P/FCF reference uses completed FY2025 cash flow; it is not a quarterly or TTM historical-series input.
| Company | Relevance | Public / Private | Valuation Metric 1 | Valuation Metric 2 | Growth / Margin / Risk Context |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Verisign (VRSN) | Subject company; exclusive .com/.net registry | Public | ~33.2× trailing earnings | ~25.9× FY2025 FCF | Renewal-driven monopoly-like economics, contractual pricing limits |
| Identity Digital and other generic TLD registries | Closest direct registry competition outside .com/.net | Private / mixed | N/A | N/A | Alternate domain extensions; no comparable public standalone multiples |
| GoDaddy (GDDY) | Registry distribution/customer-channel adjacency, not equivalent registry monopoly | Public | Not normalized here | Not normalized here | Registrar customer-acquisition and software mix carry different margins |
| Tucows (TCX) | Wholesale registrar/distribution adjacency | Public | Not normalized here | Not normalized here | Distinct business mix and financial risk |
| Cloudflare (NET) | DNS/traffic infrastructure adjacency, not competing .com registry | Public | Not normalized here | Not normalized here | Subscription security/network services have different growth and capital economics |
Comparable takeaway: No publicly traded peer replicates Verisign's contract-protected .com registry economics. Retail registrars, web hosts, and DNS security services are useful context but poor mechanical multiple comparables; cash-flow valuation is the primary method.
The approved illustrative 10-year equity-cash-flow model begins with approximately $1.0B normalized 2026 FCF and deducts an $80M annualized economic SBC cost. Initial normalized owner cash flow is therefore approximately $920M. This uses approximately 89.8M shares and after-interest cash flows, with no second net-debt subtraction. Each scenario applies a constant annual owner-cash-flow growth rate over ten years followed by terminal growth. These are analytical assumptions, not management forecasts.
| Scenario | Key Assumptions | Fair Value | Probability | Probability Rationale | Return From Price Snapshot |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | Owner FCF +3.5% annually for 10 years; 9.5% discount rate; 2.5% terminal growth; lower domain expansion or weaker allowable pricing | $162 | 20% | Contract/pricing restrictions and domain churn could materially limit compounding | -47.5% |
| Base | Owner FCF +7.0% annually for 10 years; 8.5% discount rate; 3.0% terminal growth; steady renewals and permitted price increases | $262 | 60% | Durable registry economics, but 2026 registration spike normalizes | -15.1% |
| Bull | Owner FCF +8.5% annually for 10 years; 8.0% discount rate; 3.5% terminal growth; stronger registration demand and successful adjacencies | $352 | 20% | Sustained high growth and successful execution would justify additional upside | +14.0% |
| Probability-Weighted | 0.20 × 162 + 0.60 × 262 + 0.20 × 352 = $260 | $260 | 100% | Judgmental weighting to align with the approved $260 central value | -15.8% |
CEO Jim Bidzos and CFO John Calys oversee a franchise where uptime and restraint are as important as new-product execution. Management has historically returned much of the business's free cash flow through repurchases, supporting per-share earnings growth; 2025 also included a regular dividend, and the November 2026 approved quarterly dividend was $0.81 per share (annualized $3.24, ~1.05% yield at the research-date close).
Buybacks can create value at attractive prices but are less obviously compelling when the stock trades above conservative intrinsic value. During 9M FY2026, dividends plus repurchases exceeded FCF; this is possible for a strong balance sheet but should not become the default use of capital. The .web operating rights are represented by roughly $171M of acquired intangible assets, making execution discipline important.
Management has maintained strong registry reliability and cash returns. Capital allocation looks broadly sound, but aggressive repurchases during expensive periods and uncertain .web/Informed commercialization warrant discipline.
Analyzed call: Q3 FY2026 webcast and independently paraphrased transcript, 2026-10-22 · Research snapshot: 2026-11-09
The following rows paraphrase the complete material public Q3 FY2026 call Q&A involving Robert Oliver (Baird), Ygal Arounian (Wedbush), Jamesmichael Sherman-Lewis (Citi) and Alexei Gogolev (JPMorgan). They summarize management's responses without copying transcript wording.
| Analyst / Firm | Core Question | Management Response | Research Read-Through |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rob Oliver / Baird | What drove record new .com/.net registrations, and how should investors interpret AI and digital-provenance demand? | Bidzos pointed to new businesses, registrar marketing, and early evidence from registrars that AI-assisted website creation is increasing domain demand; he did not quantify the AI share. | Tailwinds look real, but attribution and durability remain unmeasured. |
| Rob Oliver / Baird | Are first-year domains renewing more strongly, and are recent cohorts of good quality? | Calys said first-time renewal remains approximately mid-40%, with previously renewed names around mid-80%; aggregate rate is pressured by a growing new-name mix, with no meaningful recent cohort improvement reported. | Growth quality cannot be inferred from gross adds alone; 2027 renewals are a key test. |
| Rob Oliver / Baird | Does .web's timing ahead of a broader new-TLD wave strengthen its rollout opportunity? | Bidzos viewed the early entry as helpful and stressed reliability, extension relevance and more flexible promotion and pricing, but provided no revenue forecast. | Option value exists, but commercial acceptance is not demonstrated. |
| Ygal Arounian / Wedbush | What could slow domain growth in 2027 as AI and agentic web creation expand? | Bidzos described long-run digitalization and online identity demand plus current registrar activity, while acknowledging inevitable periodic volatility and avoiding 2027 guidance. | Do not extrapolate 2026's 6%–7% domain-base growth indefinitely. |
| Ygal Arounian / Wedbush | Why can Informed win versus other security services, and what pricing structure is contemplated? | Bidzos emphasized the registry infrastructure's speed and global availability for credential-status validation; pricing structure was not finalized, with more detail expected by year-end. | Technology fit is plausible, but product-market fit and economics remain unproven. |
| Jamesmichael Sherman-Lewis / Citi | Have registrars already raised retail prices in response to the November wholesale .com price increase, and could pricing change renewals? | Calys said observed retail pricing had moved around 1% or less after advance notice. Bidzos noted $0.71 wholesale increase is modest versus registrars' independent retail prices. | Retail pricing elasticity and whether registrars absorb the fee still need observation. |
| Jamesmichael Sherman-Lewis / Citi | Why pursue .pki and how broad is the company's new generic-TLD strategy? | Bidzos linked the sole application for .pki to public-key-infrastructure knowledge and Informed's digital-trust objectives rather than a broad extension land grab. | The strategy is selective but incremental revenue remains speculative. |
| Alexei Gogolev / JPMorgan | How do gross adds, deletions and churn combine into the upgraded 6.5%–7% annual domain-base guidance? | Calys declined to guide individual drivers, expected healthy registrations but Q4 seasonality and more first-time renewal mix; Bidzos described historically stable cohort rates and a less abrupt boom than a prior China-driven spike. | More first-year names can depress aggregate renewal rates even when the longstanding base is stable. |
| Alexei Gogolev / JPMorgan | Will registrar retail prices or domain demand react substantially to the $0.71 .com wholesale price increase? | Bidzos would not forecast retailer decisions or elasticity, describing room within typical retail markups to accommodate a modest wholesale increase. | Pricing benefit is likely but demand and retail pass-through have not been quantified. |
| Alexei Gogolev / JPMorgan | Is there material early renewal pull-forward ahead of the November price increase, and when will revenue reflect higher fees? | Calys had not observed substantial early renewals. Investor relations reiterated that roughly half of the new .com price effect is expected in 2027 revenue and most of the rest in 2028. | Forecast revenue phasing separately from registration cash collection. |
| Alexei Gogolev / JPMorgan | Will Informed monetize per validation query or certificate, and what would demonstrate product-market fit before H1 2027 availability? | Bidzos did not provide a unit-pricing commitment or quantified adoption targets, instead pointing to beta, standards engagement, pricing details expected by year-end and planned H1 2027 production. | Maintain little incremental modeled value until pricing, adoption and unit economics are visible. |
The analysts' primary challenge was growth quality: first-renewal cohorts and the promotional/AI contribution to net domain adds. Management gave useful cohort-retention observations but no precise deletion bridge or durable 2027 growth forecast. Second, the November .com wholesale increase is supported by contract rights, but retail behavior, cash timing and recognized-revenue phasing differ. Third, .web and Informed are plausible opportunities but management supplied no validated customer-demand or revenue economics sufficient to justify a large valuation uplift. These answers reinforce the approved Hold decision and the valuation's demand and pricing sensitivities.
| Source | Type | Date / Period | What It Supports |
|---|---|---|---|
| Verisign Q3 FY2026 earnings release | Company IR | 2026-10-22 | Operating results, domains, repurchases, dividend |
| Verisign Q3 FY2026 investor call | Company IR | 2026-10-22 | Management guidance, strategic updates and analyst Q&A |
| Verisign Q3 2026 earnings-call transcript | Third-party transcript used for independent paraphrase | 2026-10-22 | Full material analyst Q&A; no transcript quotations reproduced |
| Verisign Q3 FY2026 Form 10-Q | SEC filing | Quarter ended 2026-09-30 | Q3/9M financial statements, balance sheet, SBC and risks |
| Verisign Q2 FY2026 Form 10-Q | SEC filing | Quarter ended 2026-06-30 | Interim comparative financial and cash-flow detail |
| Verisign Q1 FY2026 Form 10-Q | SEC filing | Quarter ended 2026-03-31 | Q1 comparative income, cash-flow and SBC |
| Verisign FY2025 Form 10-K | SEC filing | FY2023–FY2025 | Annual financials, registry terms, financial risk |
| VRSN historical close | Market data, dated reference only | 2026-11-06 | $308.67 regular-session valuation reference; no bulk pricing dataset redistributed |
portfolio/holdings.mdportfolio/holdings.mdInitial analysis — no previous review available.
Current review: 2026-11-09
Previous review: None
Update trigger: Initial fundamental research and valuation following Q3 FY2026 earnings
| Area | Previous view | Current view | Investment impact |
|---|---|---|---|
| Registry economics | No canonical VRSN review on file | Exclusive .com registry operator, substantial renewal base and exceptionally high operating margins | Very durable economic franchise, subject to contract limitations |
| Domain demand | No canonical review | 182.5M .com/.net domains, +6.1% year over year; 13.1M new registrations in Q3 | Supports growth, but renewal mix deserves scrutiny |
| Pricing | No canonical review | .com wholesale fee increased from $10.26 to $10.97 effective 2026-11-01 | Supports 2027–2028 revenue recognition over renewal cycles |
| Cash generation | No canonical review | FY2025 FCF $1,068.3M; 9M FY2026 FCF $738.7M; low capex | Quality is strong, though 2026 operating cash flow declined year over year |
| Valuation | No canonical review | Bear/base/bull $162/$262/$352; weighted fair value ~$260 | $308.67 reference price implies ~15.8% downside to weighted value |
Thesis: Initial. The business is unusually durable and capital-light, but the analyzed price discounts many years of pricing power and steady cash-flow growth.
| Metric | Current view |
|---|---|
| Price snapshot | $308.67 (2026-11-06 regular-session close) |
| Bear / Base / Bull fair value | $162 / $262 / $352 |
| Scenario probabilities | 20% / 60% / 20% |
| Probability-weighted fair value | $260 |
| Quality Score / Tier | 90.1 / A |
| Risk level | Medium, with material contractual/pricing and valuation sensitivity |
| Valuation confidence | 72/100 (Medium) |
| Tracking / Ownership | On the Radar / No position recorded |
| Research-date investment rating | Hold |
Decision rationale: Verisign offers high renewal-driven cash flow and substantial wholesale-registry advantages, but a roughly 33× trailing-earnings valuation at $308.67 offers little margin of safety. This is the approved research-date Hold judgment; FolioFacts separately computes live price-dependent classifications using the shared methodology.
Verisign is the registry operator behind .com and .net rather than a retail registrar. Every domain registration or renewal processed through participating registrars creates a wholesale registry payment. Existing web addresses are important digital identities for customers, so an established domain can be considerably more durable than an ordinary discretionary technology purchase.
The investment attraction is not exciting new products. It is an entrenched registry base, regulated-but-valuable pricing rights, low incremental capital requirements, and cash generation that can support dividends and share retirement. New .com/.net registrations and allowable price increases together can compound revenue even if the addressable market grows slowly. The investment debate is whether faster 2026 domain growth survives first-renewal cohorts and whether the share price has already fully discounted that resilience.
Verisign provides registration and authoritative resolution infrastructure for .com and .net, and operates other registry and DNS services of smaller scale. Registrars such as GoDaddy and Namecheap are the direct paying customers for wholesale registrations. They own end-customer marketing and retail pricing. Verisign records fees largely over the relevant registration term, and related cash collections can differ from revenue recognition because of deferred revenue.
| Business / offering | Role and economics | Investment relevance |
|---|---|---|
| .com | Core global generic top-level domain registry; wholesale registration and renewal fees | Dominant economic engine; contract extends to November 2030 with presumptive renewal provisions |
| .net | Established generic domain registry | Smaller adjacent domain base, with a separate announced March 2027 wholesale price increase |
| Other registry/DNS services | Registry technology and authoritative DNS infrastructure | Supports operating scale and reliability; currently much smaller than .com/.net |
| .web | Newly secured generic TLD, with early rollout planned for late 2026 and general availability potentially April 2027 | More flexible marketing/pricing, but commercial demand remains unproven |
| Verisign Informed | High-assurance validation and credential-status services in beta | Potential adjacency to DNS reliability, without established material revenue |
For .com, a wholesale price adjustment from $10.26 to $10.97 began November 1, 2026; for .net, management announced an increase from $10.91 to $12.00 effective March 1, 2027. The fee increase is not equivalent to instant recognized revenue: management expects roughly half of the .com increase to flow through 2027 revenue, with most of the remainder in 2028.
Verisign's most valuable product is high-reliability registry access to a large installed base of digital identities. Its stable registry infrastructure supports exceptional margins, while direct customer acquisition costs largely sit with retail registrars. Pricing rights are valuable but contractual, not unlimited.
The relevant market is the global stock of registered domain names and the flow of registrations and renewals, rather than all internet spending. Demand responds to business formation, e-commerce, content creation, online identity and registrar promotions. Internet identifiers are embedded in global infrastructure and can be costly for established operators to replace, but domain registrations can fall during economic slowdowns and when promotional or speculative cohorts expire.
The .com/.net base finished 2023 near 172.7M names, fell to approximately 169M at the end of 2024, recovered to 173.5M at year-end 2025, and reached 182.5M on September 30, 2026. Those figures demonstrate that an excellent renewal business can still undergo periods of negative net volume growth. The 2026 AI-website-creation tailwind is plausible but not yet a guarantee of persistent high-single-digit domain expansion.
A directly comparable, current global TLD market-share series for all major registry operators was not assembled under uniform definitions. It would be misleading to use .com's large absolute domain count as a calculated percentage of a mixed market containing country-code names and different pricing regimes.
| Company / Platform | Primary Position | Relative Scale | Growth Direction | Investment Relevance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Verisign .com/.net | Established mass-market registry | 182.5M names | +6.1% YoY in Q3 2026 | Very large entrenched renewal base |
| Identity Digital and other gTLD operators | Alternative generic top-level domains | Fragmented extension portfolios; not directly comparable in this research | Not quantified on consistent basis | Can attract new registrations but rarely duplicate .com's ubiquity |
| Country-code registries, including .de and .uk | Important local identity alternatives | Deep regional adoption; distinct governance | Not quantified on consistent basis | Compete for domain registration choice in local markets |
| Retail registrars and web-platform offerings | Distribution layer and alternatives to dedicated websites | Direct end-customer contact, not equivalent registry substitutes | Distinct business models | Retail marketing and product bundling influence Verisign demand |
The industry benefits from the continuing need for persistent web identities, but .com's existing installed base, not an unlimited TAM expansion thesis, supports the valuation. The strong 2026 new-registration cycle should be normalized.
Verisign's direct customers are registrars, but its true unit of economic value is each registered domain-year. Annual new registrations and renewals generate wholesale revenue; customers avoid the disruption of migrating an established brand and linked digital identity to another domain. Registrars set the retail fee, and Verisign does not control their pricing or promotions.
At the Q3 call, management reported first-time renewal rates around the mid-40% range and previously renewed domains around the mid-80% range. It estimated the preliminary aggregate Q3 renewal rate at 74.3%, against 75.4% for the comparable finalized prior-year period. The rising mix of recently registered names can push headline renewals lower without a deterioration in established-domain retention. It also means new registrations cannot be valued as if each were equally sticky.
Incremental registry names are highly attractive economically after the shared infrastructure cost. The main uncertainty is cohort quality, not conventional enterprise customer-acquisition cost or SaaS-style net revenue retention.
| Competitor | Market Share | Positioning | Advantages vs. Company | Disadvantages vs. Company | Current Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Identity Digital and other gTLD registries | N/D, not comparable | Alternative generic extensions | More extension choice, differing pricing flexibility | Much smaller installed bases for individual alternatives | Fragmented competition |
| National country-code registry operators | N/D, not comparable | Country-specific domain namespaces | Strong local identity and national recognition | Limited direct substitution for globally established .com brands | Mature regional alternatives |
| Hosted website, social identity and AI-agent platforms | N/A, substitutes not registries | Alternative ways to reach customers | Can reduce need for standalone websites | Often still depend on DNS/domains or lack ownership portability | Growing substitutes |
The moat comes from exclusivity under registry contracts, installed-base switching costs and unusually reliable DNS infrastructure. A registrar cannot replicate the .com authoritative registry simply by competing on retail pricing. Verisign reports decades of uninterrupted .com/.net DNS availability and is responsible for infrastructure on which a large volume of internet traffic depends. The downside of regulatory exclusivity is reliance on renewal and wholesale-price permissions controlled by external authorities.
Moat direction: Stable.
The material threat is less a competing vendor taking over .com registrations and more domain demand migrating to other identifiers, weak promotional-cohort renewals, or contractual price regulation that transfers economics away from shareholders.
Amounts in USD millions except gross/operating/FCF margins, revenue growth and diluted shares (millions). FCF is reported CFO less capital expenditures for property and equipment; quarterly FCF is derived by differencing reported cumulative cash flows. N/D means a balance-sheet value was not populated from a verified matched-period source. Completed fiscal years are annual totals; 2026 rows are standalone quarters or nine-month cumulative amounts—not TTM data.
| Period | Revenue | Growth | Gross Margin | Operating Margin | FCF | FCF Margin | SBC | Diluted Shares | Cash | Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2023 | $1,493.1M | 4.4% | 86.8% | 67.0% | $808.0M | 54.1% | $59.7M | 103.5M | N/D | N/D |
| FY2024 | $1,557.4M | 4.3% | 87.7% | 68.0% | $874.5M | 56.2% | $61.1M | 98.2M | N/D | N/D |
| FY2025 | $1,656.6M | 6.4% | 88.2% | 67.7% | $1,068.3M | 64.5% | $69.7M | 93.8M | $580.5M | $1,788.2M |
| Q1 FY2026 | $428.9M | 6.6% | 88.5% | 68.5% | $265.2M (derived) | 61.8% | $19.1M | 91.7M | N/D | N/D |
| Q2 FY2026 | $434.6M | 6.0% | 88.5% | 68.2% | $212.8M (derived) | 49.0% | $19.4M | 91.1M | N/D | N/D |
| Q3 FY2026 | $443.0M | 5.7% | 88.8% | 66.9% | $260.7M (derived) | 58.8% | $20.3M | 90.4M | $476.1M | $1,785.9M |
| 9M FY2026 | $1,306.5M | 6.1% | 88.6% | 67.8% | $738.7M | 56.5% | $58.8M | 91.1M | $476.1M | $1,785.9M |
The nine-month balance sheet is at the September 30 reporting date, not the sum of quarterly balances. Gross margin is calculated as revenue less cost of revenue, divided by revenue. The 2026 Q1 diluted-share figure is the quarter's weighted average, not period-end outstanding shares.
| Metric | FY2025 | 9M FY2026 |
|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | $1,091.1M | $772.3M |
| Capex | $22.8M | $33.6M |
| Free cash flow | $1,068.3M | $738.7M |
| SBC | $69.7M | $58.8M |
| SBC / FCF (matching period) | 6.5% | 8.0% |
| Repurchases | $881.6M | $620.0M |
| Dividends paid | $215.2M | $220.8M |
SBC/FCF is an analytical ratio of the matching period and not a separate FolioFacts financial-history input; FolioFacts derives the displayed ratio from period-matched figures. No TTM FCF or SBC series is used.
Q3 2026 revenue of $443.0M grew 5.7% year over year and operating income of $296.5M grew 4.3%, with operating margin near 66.9%. Net income was essentially flat at $212.6M, while diluted EPS rose to $2.35 due partly to lower share count. A $7.5M pretax loss on assets held for sale affected the quarter.
Full-year guidance following Q3 calls for 6.5%–7.0% domain-base growth, $1.755B–$1.760B revenue, $1.188B–$1.192B operating income and $55M–$65M capex. The domain-base growth guidance improved, but operating leverage did not expand in Q3. Nine-month 2026 FCF declined year over year, even as earnings increased; cash taxes, payment timing and operating expenses deserve monitoring.
As of September 30, 2026 Verisign held about $476M of cash and marketable securities against ~$1.79B senior notes, or ~$1.31B of net debt. Its ~$1.46B deferred revenue liability reflects services still to be delivered, not conventional interest-bearing financing. Negative book equity arises importantly from cumulative buybacks, not from an inability to produce cash.
Financial direction: Mixed — strong domain/revenue expansion, exceptionally high margins, but lower year-to-date operating cash generation and significant shareholder distributions.
CEO Jim Bidzos and CFO John Calys oversee a franchise where uptime and restraint are as important as new-product execution. Management has historically returned much of the business's free cash flow through repurchases, supporting per-share earnings growth; 2025 also included a regular dividend, and the November 2026 approved quarterly dividend was $0.81 per share (annualized $3.24, ~1.05% yield at the research-date close).
Buybacks can create value at attractive prices but are less obviously compelling when the stock trades above conservative intrinsic value. During 9M FY2026, dividends plus repurchases exceeded FCF; this is possible for a strong balance sheet but should not become the default use of capital. The .web operating rights are represented by roughly $171M of acquired intangible assets, making execution discipline important.
Management has maintained strong registry reliability and cash returns. Capital allocation looks broadly sound, but aggressive repurchases during expensive periods and uncertain .web/Informed commercialization warrant discipline.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Price Snapshot | $308.67, 2026-11-06 regular-session close |
| Market Capitalization | Approximately $27.7B |
| Enterprise Value | Approximately $29.0B (equity value plus reported net funded debt) |
| Trailing GAAP P/E | Approximately 33.2× |
| Market cap / FY2025 revenue | Approximately 16.7× |
| Market cap / FY2025 FCF | Approximately 25.9× |
The earnings multiple and price snapshot are dated research references, not live feeds. The P/FCF reference uses completed FY2025 cash flow; it is not a quarterly or TTM historical-series input.
| Company | Relevance | Public / Private | Valuation Metric 1 | Valuation Metric 2 | Growth / Margin / Risk Context |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Verisign (VRSN) | Subject company; exclusive .com/.net registry | Public | ~33.2× trailing earnings | ~25.9× FY2025 FCF | Renewal-driven monopoly-like economics, contractual pricing limits |
| Identity Digital and other generic TLD registries | Closest direct registry competition outside .com/.net | Private / mixed | N/A | N/A | Alternate domain extensions; no comparable public standalone multiples |
| GoDaddy (GDDY) | Registry distribution/customer-channel adjacency, not equivalent registry monopoly | Public | Not normalized here | Not normalized here | Registrar customer-acquisition and software mix carry different margins |
| Tucows (TCX) | Wholesale registrar/distribution adjacency | Public | Not normalized here | Not normalized here | Distinct business mix and financial risk |
| Cloudflare (NET) | DNS/traffic infrastructure adjacency, not competing .com registry | Public | Not normalized here | Not normalized here | Subscription security/network services have different growth and capital economics |
Comparable takeaway: No publicly traded peer replicates Verisign's contract-protected .com registry economics. Retail registrars, web hosts, and DNS security services are useful context but poor mechanical multiple comparables; cash-flow valuation is the primary method.
The approved illustrative 10-year equity-cash-flow model begins with approximately $1.0B normalized 2026 FCF and deducts an $80M annualized economic SBC cost. Initial normalized owner cash flow is therefore approximately $920M. This uses approximately 89.8M shares and after-interest cash flows, with no second net-debt subtraction. Each scenario applies a constant annual owner-cash-flow growth rate over ten years followed by terminal growth. These are analytical assumptions, not management forecasts.
| Scenario | Key Assumptions | Fair Value | Probability | Probability Rationale | Return From Price Snapshot |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | Owner FCF +3.5% annually for 10 years; 9.5% discount rate; 2.5% terminal growth; lower domain expansion or weaker allowable pricing | $162 | 20% | Contract/pricing restrictions and domain churn could materially limit compounding | -47.5% |
| Base | Owner FCF +7.0% annually for 10 years; 8.5% discount rate; 3.0% terminal growth; steady renewals and permitted price increases | $262 | 60% | Durable registry economics, but 2026 registration spike normalizes | -15.1% |
| Bull | Owner FCF +8.5% annually for 10 years; 8.0% discount rate; 3.5% terminal growth; stronger registration demand and successful adjacencies | $352 | 20% | Sustained high growth and successful execution would justify additional upside | +14.0% |
| Probability-Weighted | 0.20 × 162 + 0.60 × 262 + 0.20 × 352 = $260 | $260 | 100% | Judgmental weighting to align with the approved $260 central value | -15.8% |
The following rows paraphrase the complete material public Q3 FY2026 call Q&A involving Robert Oliver (Baird), Ygal Arounian (Wedbush), Jamesmichael Sherman-Lewis (Citi) and Alexei Gogolev (JPMorgan). They summarize management's responses without copying transcript wording.
| Analyst / Firm | Core Question | Management Response | Research Read-Through |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rob Oliver / Baird | What drove record new .com/.net registrations, and how should investors interpret AI and digital-provenance demand? | Bidzos pointed to new businesses, registrar marketing, and early evidence from registrars that AI-assisted website creation is increasing domain demand; he did not quantify the AI share. | Tailwinds look real, but attribution and durability remain unmeasured. |
| Rob Oliver / Baird | Are first-year domains renewing more strongly, and are recent cohorts of good quality? | Calys said first-time renewal remains approximately mid-40%, with previously renewed names around mid-80%; aggregate rate is pressured by a growing new-name mix, with no meaningful recent cohort improvement reported. | Growth quality cannot be inferred from gross adds alone; 2027 renewals are a key test. |
| Rob Oliver / Baird | Does .web's timing ahead of a broader new-TLD wave strengthen its rollout opportunity? | Bidzos viewed the early entry as helpful and stressed reliability, extension relevance and more flexible promotion and pricing, but provided no revenue forecast. | Option value exists, but commercial acceptance is not demonstrated. |
| Ygal Arounian / Wedbush | What could slow domain growth in 2027 as AI and agentic web creation expand? | Bidzos described long-run digitalization and online identity demand plus current registrar activity, while acknowledging inevitable periodic volatility and avoiding 2027 guidance. | Do not extrapolate 2026's 6%–7% domain-base growth indefinitely. |
| Ygal Arounian / Wedbush | Why can Informed win versus other security services, and what pricing structure is contemplated? | Bidzos emphasized the registry infrastructure's speed and global availability for credential-status validation; pricing structure was not finalized, with more detail expected by year-end. | Technology fit is plausible, but product-market fit and economics remain unproven. |
| Jamesmichael Sherman-Lewis / Citi | Have registrars already raised retail prices in response to the November wholesale .com price increase, and could pricing change renewals? | Calys said observed retail pricing had moved around 1% or less after advance notice. Bidzos noted $0.71 wholesale increase is modest versus registrars' independent retail prices. | Retail pricing elasticity and whether registrars absorb the fee still need observation. |
| Jamesmichael Sherman-Lewis / Citi | Why pursue .pki and how broad is the company's new generic-TLD strategy? | Bidzos linked the sole application for .pki to public-key-infrastructure knowledge and Informed's digital-trust objectives rather than a broad extension land grab. | The strategy is selective but incremental revenue remains speculative. |
| Alexei Gogolev / JPMorgan | How do gross adds, deletions and churn combine into the upgraded 6.5%–7% annual domain-base guidance? | Calys declined to guide individual drivers, expected healthy registrations but Q4 seasonality and more first-time renewal mix; Bidzos described historically stable cohort rates and a less abrupt boom than a prior China-driven spike. | More first-year names can depress aggregate renewal rates even when the longstanding base is stable. |
| Alexei Gogolev / JPMorgan | Will registrar retail prices or domain demand react substantially to the $0.71 .com wholesale price increase? | Bidzos would not forecast retailer decisions or elasticity, describing room within typical retail markups to accommodate a modest wholesale increase. | Pricing benefit is likely but demand and retail pass-through have not been quantified. |
| Alexei Gogolev / JPMorgan | Is there material early renewal pull-forward ahead of the November price increase, and when will revenue reflect higher fees? | Calys had not observed substantial early renewals. Investor relations reiterated that roughly half of the new .com price effect is expected in 2027 revenue and most of the rest in 2028. | Forecast revenue phasing separately from registration cash collection. |
| Alexei Gogolev / JPMorgan | Will Informed monetize per validation query or certificate, and what would demonstrate product-market fit before H1 2027 availability? | Bidzos did not provide a unit-pricing commitment or quantified adoption targets, instead pointing to beta, standards engagement, pricing details expected by year-end and planned H1 2027 production. | Maintain little incremental modeled value until pricing, adoption and unit economics are visible. |
The analysts' primary challenge was growth quality: first-renewal cohorts and the promotional/AI contribution to net domain adds. Management gave useful cohort-retention observations but no precise deletion bridge or durable 2027 growth forecast. Second, the November .com wholesale increase is supported by contract rights, but retail behavior, cash timing and recognized-revenue phasing differ. Third, .web and Informed are plausible opportunities but management supplied no validated customer-demand or revenue economics sufficient to justify a large valuation uplift. These answers reinforce the approved Hold decision and the valuation's demand and pricing sensitivities.
| Driver | Current State | Positive Trigger / Catalyst | Negative Trigger / Falsifier | What It Changes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Domain base | 182.5M, +6.1% YoY Q3 | Several quarters of durable net additions with stable cohorts | Promotional-domain deletions exceed new additions | Long-run FCF growth assumptions |
| Renewal quality | Q3 preliminary aggregate 74.3%; first-time mid-40%, repeat mid-80% | First-year retention holds up when 2026 cohorts mature | Persistent decline in like-for-like cohort retention | Sustainable domain volume and terminal growth |
| Pricing | .com fee $10.97 from 2026-11-01; .net increase planned in 2027 | Allowed increases flow through revenue with limited volume impact | Regulatory amendments reduce pricing rights | Core cash-flow compounding |
| .web | Registry launch preparations; ~$171M intangible rights | Measurable adoption and economically valuable premium registrations | Low adoption, excessive marketing spend or cannibalization | Upside optionality, capital allocation |
| Informed | Beta launch; H1 2027 production planned | Clear unit pricing, paying enterprise users, attractive margins | Low adoption, adverse liability or security outcomes | Optional new-product valuation |
| Cash conversion | 9M FY2026 FCF $738.7M vs FY2025 $1.07B | Cash flow catches up with operating earnings | Repeated cash conversion shortfalls amid rising shareholder distributions | Owner-cash-flow starting point |
| Contract and security | .com agreement runs through 2030; infrastructure uptime critical | Stable renewal and unchanged rights | Price restrictions or material availability/security incident | Moat and required return |
| Component | Score | Weight | Weighted Contribution | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Business durability and economics | 96 | 25% | 24.00 | Recurring domain renewals, near-67% operating margins, modest capex |
| Moat and competitive position | 97 | 25% | 24.25 | Exclusive registry, entrenched address base and DNS reliability |
| Growth runway and durability | 81 | 20% | 16.20 | Pricing/volume growth available but 2026 spike may normalize |
| Financial quality and balance sheet | 88 | 15% | 13.20 | Strong recurring FCF, manageable debt, 2026 cash conversion softness |
| Management, governance and capital allocation | 83 | 15% | 12.45 | Reliable operations and share retirement, but buyback price discipline matters |
| Quality Score | 90.1 | 100% | 90.10 | Price-independent business assessment |
Current Opportunity Score, shared ranks, and live price zones are determined by FolioFacts, not this research source.
portfolio/holdings.mdontheradar.md (only tier; no Primary Watchlist entry)portfolio/holdings.md| Timestamp | Price | Rating | Zone Status | Buy Zone | Strong Buy Zone | Avoid Chasing Above | Base FV | P/W FV | P/W Return | Quality | Opportunity / Rank | Change / Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-09 (research date) | $308.67 (2026-11-06 close) | Hold | FolioFacts only | FolioFacts only | FolioFacts only | FolioFacts only | $262 | $260 | -15.8% | 90.1 | FolioFacts only | Initial analysis: durable registry franchise but little margin of safety; proposed entry near $230–$240 |
Disclaimer: This publication reflects my personal investment research, thoughts, and opinions only. It is intended strictly for informational and educational purposes and does not constitute personalized investment, legal, tax, or financial advice, nor does it represent a recommendation or solicitation to buy, sell, or hold any security or financial instrument.
I am not a registered investment adviser, broker-dealer, or financial planner. This content does not take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, or risk tolerance. All investments involve substantial risk, including the potential loss of all principal capital. Past performance is never indicative of future results.
While I endeavor to provide accurate information, all data and analysis are provided "as is" without any warranty of accuracy, completeness, or timeliness. You must conduct your own independent due diligence and/or consult with a licensed professional before making any financial decisions. I may hold long or short positions in any of the securities or assets discussed herein at any time without notice.
| Source | Type | Date / Period | What It Supports |
|---|---|---|---|
| Verisign Q3 FY2026 earnings release | Company IR | 2026-10-22 | Operating results, domains, repurchases, dividend |
| Verisign Q3 FY2026 investor call | Company IR | 2026-10-22 | Management guidance, strategic updates and analyst Q&A |
| Verisign Q3 2026 earnings-call transcript | Third-party transcript used for independent paraphrase | 2026-10-22 | Full material analyst Q&A; no transcript quotations reproduced |
| Verisign Q3 FY2026 Form 10-Q | SEC filing | Quarter ended 2026-09-30 | Q3/9M financial statements, balance sheet, SBC and risks |
| Verisign Q2 FY2026 Form 10-Q | SEC filing | Quarter ended 2026-06-30 | Interim comparative financial and cash-flow detail |
| Verisign Q1 FY2026 Form 10-Q | SEC filing | Quarter ended 2026-03-31 | Q1 comparative income, cash-flow and SBC |
| Verisign FY2025 Form 10-K | SEC filing | FY2023–FY2025 | Annual financials, registry terms, financial risk |
| VRSN historical close | Market data, dated reference only | 2026-11-06 | $308.67 regular-session valuation reference; no bulk pricing dataset redistributed |
This page presents the saved VRSN analysis. Ratings, zones, and opportunity scores shown above are recalculated at its dated reference price using FolioFacts rules; the live Creator Watchlist uses current market prices and can differ. Missing financial data is not estimated.
This publication reflects my personal investment research, thoughts, and opinions only. It is intended strictly for informational and educational purposes and does not constitute personalized investment, legal, tax, or financial advice. Any ratings or views expressed are general analytical opinions, not recommendations tailored to any reader or offers or solicitations to buy or sell any security or financial instrument.
I am not a registered investment adviser, broker-dealer, or financial planner. This content does not take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, or risk tolerance. All investments involve substantial risk, including the potential loss of all principal capital. Past performance is never indicative of future results.
While I endeavor to provide accurate information, all data and analysis are provided "as is" without any warranty of accuracy, completeness, or timeliness. You must conduct your own independent due diligence and/or consult with a licensed professional before making any financial decisions. I may hold long or short positions in any of the securities or assets discussed herein at any time without notice.
Quality is price independent. Opportunity combines that quality with scenario-based upside, bear-case protection, and confidence. Ownership and cost basis do not affect these scores. Watchlist rank compares the scored companies in that Watchlist.
Model scores, valuation estimates, and price zones are based on assumptions, not guarantees of future performance or individualized advice. Read our Disclaimer.
25% business durability
25% moat and competitive position
20% growth runway
15% financial quality
15% management and capital allocation
30% Quality Score
35% normalized probability-weighted upside
20% normalized bear-case return
15% risk and valuation confidence
At least 50% upside to P/W fair value, with price no more than 10% above bear-case fair value.
At least 25% upside to P/W fair value, above the Strong Buy boundary.
Modeled return from approximately −10% to below +25%.
More than 10% downside to P/W fair value.
Risk-adjusted view. This framework balances expected upside, downside risk and valuation confidence. Zones may be less reliable for companies priced mainly on future potential rather than current fundamentals.
These prompt a review of the research and Opportunity Score. Watchlist ranks are calculated automatically from the scores currently displayed.