Better decisioning can increase merchant sales while lowering fraud costs, creating room for durable fees. Q2 revenue grew 22%, its strongest growth in several years, but gross margin fell to approximately 46%. The debate is whether growth reflects attractive risk-adjusted merchant economics or lower-margin volume. Buybacks improve per-share value only if core profitability strengthens.

What the Market May Be Mispricing

Debate	Research judgment
Merchant retention and approval performance	Better decisioning can increase merchant sales while lowering fraud costs, creating room for durable fees.
Chargeback costs and gross profit per transaction	Approval rates, guaranteed chargeback costs, merchant retention and gross profit per transaction drive economics.
SBC-adjusted earnings and repurchase discipline	TTM FCF was approximately $46.6 million and SBC $45.8 million, leaving limited economic cash generation after compensation.

Riskified helps merchants approve legitimate online orders and manage fraud, chargebacks and policy abuse. Its chargeback-guarantee model combines decision software with financial exposure to covered losses. Revenue depends on merchant volume, contract pricing, product mix and risk selection. Integrations and accumulated transaction data support retention, but merchants can compare approval rates and economic outcomes across multiple providers.

Business Takeaway

Riskified helps merchants approve legitimate online orders and manage fraud, chargebacks and policy abuse. Approval rates, guaranteed chargeback costs, merchant retention and gross profit per transaction drive economics.

E-commerce fraud and abuse remain persistent needs, with competition from specialists, payment platforms and in-house merchant tools. Total online sales are not directly monetizable TAM. Approval improvement and loss performance determine the economically addressable fee pool.

Market-Share Analysis

Comparable same-definition share data for the subject and its principal rivals were not established. TAM estimates and company-specific volume measures are not treated as directly comparable market shares. The positioning analysis below is more reliable than a table of unmatched percentages.

Competitive Scale / Position

Company / Platform	Primary Position	Relative Scale	Growth Direction	Investment Relevance
Forter (private)	Direct: merchant fraud decisions and identity/risk controls	Product scope; no matched operating-scale series	Competes for merchant risk budgets	Customer choice in the stated segment only
Signifyd (private)	Direct: commerce fraud protection and chargeback guarantees	Product scope; no matched operating-scale series	Competes on approval/loss economics	Customer choice in the stated segment only
Merchant/processor internal fraud tools	Substitute: in-house or bundled transaction screening	Product scope; no matched operating-scale series	Build-versus-buy and guarantee scope matter	Customer choice in the stated segment only

Industry Takeaway

Approval improvement and loss performance determine the economically addressable fee pool. The base case requires evidence of profitable adoption within that market.

Competitive Landscape

Fraud-decision providers and covered-loss economics are the relevant comparison. PayPal and dLocal are removed as broad payment-volume proxies.

Competitor	Market Share	Positioning	Advantages vs. Company	Disadvantages vs. Company	Current Direction
Forter (private)	No consistent comparable series	Direct: merchant fraud decisions and identity/risk controls	Transaction decisioning and merchant integrations	Guarantee terms and loss exposure differ by product	Competes for merchant risk budgets
Signifyd (private)	No consistent comparable series	Direct: commerce fraud protection and chargeback guarantees	Merchant guarantee and decision workflows	Pricing, approval rates and covered losses differ	Competes on approval/loss economics
Merchant/processor internal fraud tools	No consistent comparable series	Substitute: in-house or bundled transaction screening	Existing transaction integration and lower separate vendor spend	Merchant retains more operating/risk-management responsibility	Build-versus-buy and guarantee scope matter

Moat Assessment

Merchant integrations, transaction data and decisioning experience create moderate advantages. Forter and Signifyd remain important direct peers. Data is useful only if it leads to consistently better approval and loss outcomes.

Moat direction: Stable — an analytical judgment about product and distribution economics, not a measured market-share claim.

Competitive Takeaway

Merchant integrations, transaction data and decisioning experience create moderate advantages. The direct rivals determine commercial pressure; diversified or sector anchors provide valuation context and are not substitutes for direct competition.

Historical Financials

Standardized period history (reviewed 2026-11-07): Completed issuer fiscal years only, plus actually disclosed standalone quarters and cumulative YTD for the latest open FY. Currency USD, flows in millions, with fiscal dates defined by the issuer. Values marked derived come from disclosed period differences/sums, not TTM. Missing = N/D (not zero). Company-defined FCF includes capex and capitalized software; Q1 derived from first-half less Q2 as separately disclosed in the 2026 Q2 shareholder release.

Period	Revenue	Growth	Gross Margin	Operating Margin	FCF	FCF Margin	SBC	Diluted Shares	Cash	Debt
FY2024	327.52	10.05%	52.24%	-14.56%	39.06	11.93%	57.83	171	376.06	27.53
FY2025	344.64	5.23%	51.76%	-9.79%	33.07	9.59%	51.63	157	297.58	25.02
Q1 FY2026	$88.268M (derived from disclosed periods)	N/D	52.0%	N/D	$9.02M (derived from disclosed periods)	10.2%	$10.981M (derived from disclosed periods)	N/D	N/D	N/D
Q2 FY2026	$98.691M	N/D	45.6%	N/D	$12.934M	13.1%	$10.373M	N/D	N/D	N/D
H1 FY2026	$186.959M	N/D	48.6%	N/D	$21.954M	11.7%	$21.354M	N/D	N/D	N/D

Financial Takeaways

TTM FCF was approximately $46.6 million and SBC $45.8 million, leaving limited economic cash generation after compensation. Repurchases have reduced shares materially, but consume balance-sheet resources. The model uses sustainable diluted earnings after guarantee losses and ongoing compensation, rather than capitalizing the full cash balance and unadjusted FCF together.

Financial direction: Mixed — assess the reported trend alongside dilution and the balance sheet.

Current Valuation

Metric	Value
Price Snapshot	$8.62 — 2026-11-03 regular-session close, America/New_York
Market Capitalization	$1.16B
Enterprise Value	$957.93M
Trailing P/E	n/a
Provider forward P/E	28.99
EV / Sales	2.60

Comparable Company Analysis

Company	Relevance	Public / Private	Forward P/E	EV / Sales	Growth / Margin / Risk Context
RSKD — Riskified Ltd.	Subject company	Public	28.99	2.60	merchant fraud and chargeback protection; 3Y revenue-growth estimate 12.92%; operating margin -5.73%
Forter; Signifyd	Direct operating competitor / substitute	Private	N/A	N/A	direct fraud decisions and transaction protection; no compatible standalone public multiple used
Merchant/processor internal fraud tools	Substitute: in-house or bundled transaction screening	Operating alternative / no standalone security	N/D — no matched snapshot collected	N/D — no matched snapshot collected	Build-versus-buy and guarantee scope matter

Comparable takeaway: Fraud-decision providers and covered-loss economics are the relevant comparison. PayPal and dLocal are removed as broad payment-volume proxies. Quoted multiples retain their original dated snapshot; missing matched multiples are not estimated. Consolidated parent multiples do not isolate the competing product. No mechanical peer average is used.

The base terminal P/E is 22×, versus the provider's current forward P/E of 28.99×. Holding that quoted multiple constant on this model's 2029 EPS gives an illustrative present value of $7.83, versus the central base FV of $5.94. Earnings definitions differ, so this is a sensitivity check; it makes the dependence on a rerating or derating explicit.

Valuation Scenarios

Scenario	Key Assumptions	Fair Value	Probability	Probability Rationale	Return From Price Snapshot
Bear	3Y revenue CAGR 6%; sustainable 2029 EPS $0.12 after compensation; 14× P/E; 14% discount rate; Risk costs and pricing pressure limit 2029 economic EPS to $0.12.	$1.13	25%	Execution, financing or competitive setbacks remain credible	-86.9%
Base	3Y revenue CAGR 16%; sustainable 2029 EPS $0.40 after compensation; 22× P/E; 14% discount rate; Profitable merchant growth produces $0.40 of 2029 economic EPS.	$5.94	50%	Most likely operating trajectory, requiring measurable progress	-31.1%
Bull	3Y revenue CAGR 25%; sustainable 2029 EPS $0.80 after compensation; 28× P/E; 14% discount rate; Strong product adoption and loss performance produce $0.80 of 2029 economic EPS.	$15.12	25%	Successful product conversion and operating leverage; not assured	+75.4%
Probability-Weighted	Sum of each scenario value × its probability	$7.03	100%	Judgmental scenario probabilities	-18.4%

Valuation Takeaway

• Primary valuation method: Present value of sustainable 2029 equity earnings × scenario P/E, plus assumed interim dividends. The three-year discount horizon approximates late-2029 earning power.
• Cross-check methods: Direct competition, quoted peer multiples, current cash conversion, and the separate revenue/share/net-margin bridge in the valuation workpaper.
• Key valuation dependencies: Merchant retention and approval performance; Chargeback costs and gross profit per transaction; SBC-adjusted earnings and repurchase discipline. All forward figures are independent research assumptions, not company guidance or consensus.
• Valuation confidence / Risk Level: 48/100 / Medium-High. Scenario values are sensitive to sustainable earnings and terminal multiples.
• Margin-of-safety conclusion: Avoid at $8.77. New-file boundaries use Strong Buy = min(P/W FV ÷ 1.5, 1.1 × bear FV), Buy upper = P/W FV ÷ 1.25, Avoid above = P/W FV ÷ 0.90. Returns are to present fair value, not annualized returns or price targets for a particular date.

Management has improved growth and returned capital. It must demonstrate that new merchant wins maintain attractive risk-adjusted margins. Monitor repurchase pricing, compensation dilution and gross-profit growth rather than revenue alone.

Management Takeaway

Monitor repurchase pricing, compensation dilution and gross-profit growth rather than revenue alone.

Analyzed call: Q2 2026, complete material Q&A · Research snapshot: 2026-10-21

The table consolidates related questions and follow-ups from each material participant in the complete call.

Analyst / Firm	Core Question	Management Response	Research Read-Through
Ryan Tomasello / KBW	Why do revenue and volume growth differ as fraud exposure changes?	Management said new higher-risk business increases monetization.	Confirm that this opportunity converts into profitable recurring demand.
Connor Passarella / Truist	How does account abuse expand the product opportunity?	Management said broader identity context supports new products.	Confirm that this opportunity converts into profitable recurring demand.
Cris Kennedy / William Blair	What do retention and expansion indicate about acceleration?	Management said NRR is about 105% and new business drives acceleration.	Check repeat usage and cohort economics rather than initial sales alone.
Timothy Chiodo / UBS	What problem does the Marqeta partnership address?	Management said authorization friction extends beyond merchants' own decisions.	Confirm that this opportunity converts into profitable recurring demand.

Analyst-Q&A Takeaway

Higher-risk new business raises revenue faster than protected volume while pressuring gross margin. New customers lead growth; broader account-abuse products need to preserve underwriting and service economics.

Source	Type	Date / Period	What It Supports
Riskified Reports Strong Second Quarter of 2026 with Accelerating Revenue Growth / Riskified	Company IR / earnings filing	Q2 2026	Latest operating results, guidance, products and financial supplement
RSKD complete earnings-call transcript	Transcript	Q2 2026	Prepared remarks and all material Q&A exchanges
RSKD regular-session historical price	Market data	2026-10-20 close	Common price used in returns, scores and zones
RSKD valuation statistics	Market data	2026-10-20 close; ratios retrieved 2026-10-21	Market capitalization, shares, quoted multiples and current ratios
RSKD historical income statement	Standardized financial statements	Latest reported period and two preceding fiscal years	Historical income statement; source-native currency and definitions
RSKD historical balance sheet	Standardized financial statements	Latest reported period and two preceding fiscal years	Historical balance sheet; source-native currency and definitions
RSKD historical cash flows	Standardized financial statements	Latest reported period and two preceding fiscal years	Historical cash flows; source-native currency and definitions
Issuer interim earnings / primary filing — RSKD	Issuer IR / regulatory exhibit	Current fiscal period through 2026-11-07	Standalone period, SBC/FCF and financial definition provenance

Research context

• Company: Riskified Ltd.

• Ticker: RSKD

• Exchange: NYSE

• Sector / Industry: Technology / merchant fraud and chargeback protection

• Template version: 2.7

• Research date: 2026-10-21

• Valuation / score price snapshot: $8.62 — 2026-11-03 regular-session close, America/New_York

• Tracking tier: Primary Watchlist

• Owned: No

• Primary operating period reviewed: Q2 2026

• Historical period reviewed: completed FY2024-FY2025; Q1 FY2026, Q2 FY2026, H1 FY2026

• Latest investor presentation reviewed: Results release and associated financial tables; no separate slide deck materially used

• Latest earnings call reviewed: Q2 2026, complete material Q&A

• Latest post-earnings management commentary reviewed: No separate later management presentation incorporated

• Price snapshot date: 2026-11-03

• Price snapshot time / timezone: Regular-session close, America/New_York (including exchange half-days)

• Competitor / analyst-Q&A audit: 2026-10-28; original operating, price and valuation snapshots retained.

RSKD — Riskified Ltd.

Company & Research Metadata

• Company: Riskified Ltd.

• Ticker: RSKD

• Exchange: NYSE

• Sector / Industry: Technology / merchant fraud and chargeback protection

• Template version: 2.7

• Research date: 2026-10-21

• Valuation / score price snapshot: $8.62 — 2026-11-03 regular-session close, America/New_York

• Tracking tier: Primary Watchlist

• Owned: No

• Primary operating period reviewed: Q2 2026

• Historical period reviewed: completed FY2024-FY2025; Q1 FY2026, Q2 FY2026, H1 FY2026

• Latest investor presentation reviewed: Results release and associated financial tables; no separate slide deck materially used

• Latest earnings call reviewed: Q2 2026, complete material Q&A

• Latest post-earnings management commentary reviewed: No separate later management presentation incorporated

• Price snapshot date: 2026-11-03

• Price snapshot time / timezone: Regular-session close, America/New_York (including exchange half-days)

• Competitor / analyst-Q&A audit: 2026-10-28; original operating, price and valuation snapshots retained.

What's Changed Since Previous Review

Current Review: 2026-10-28

Previous Review: 2026-10-21

Update Trigger: Competitor relevance and analyst-Q&A correction

Area	Previous View	Current View	Investment Impact
Competition	Preceding operating and comparable-company classifications	Product/customer/geographic boundaries corrected; direct rivals separated from substitutes, partners and valuation anchors	Corrects the competitive comparison; does not by itself re-underwrite the valuation
Analyst questions	Prior source-linked Q&A summaries	Complete questions and sentence-form management answers; all 4 existing rows retained	Improves readability while preserving the recorded exchange meaning
Valuation and scores	Approved operating/price snapshots, scenarios, scores and decisions	Preserved	No price refresh, rerank or change to valuation assumptions in this correction pass

Thesis: No new fundamental thesis determination is made in this correction pass. The prior investment decision is preserved; the corrected competitive scope should govern the next substantive review.

Investment Snapshot

Metric	Current View
Price Snapshot	$8.62 — 2026-11-03 regular-session close, America/New_York
Rating / Zone Status	Avoid
Bear / Base / Bull Fair Value	$1.13 / $5.94 / $15.12
Scenario Probabilities	25% / 50% / 25%
Probability-Weighted Fair Value	$7.03
Probability-Weighted Expected Return	-18.4%
Bear-Case Return	-86.9%
Strong Buy Zone	≤ $1.24
Buy Zone	>$1.24–$5.62
Avoid Chasing Above	> $7.81
Quality Score / Tier	67.6 / Tier B
Opportunity Score / Rank	32.1 / #61 of 76
Risk Level	Medium-High
Tracking / Ownership	Primary Watchlist / Not Owned

Decision rationale: RSKD is Avoid at $8.77, with -19.8% probability-weighted upside and -87.1% bear-case return. Better decisioning can increase merchant sales while lowering fraud costs, creating room for durable fees. Confidence is 48/100 because the earnings conversion, competitive and capital assumptions below remain conditional.

Investment Thesis

Better decisioning can increase merchant sales while lowering fraud costs, creating room for durable fees. Q2 revenue grew 22%, its strongest growth in several years, but gross margin fell to approximately 46%. The debate is whether growth reflects attractive risk-adjusted merchant economics or lower-margin volume. Buybacks improve per-share value only if core profitability strengthens.

What the Market May Be Mispricing

Debate	Research judgment
Merchant retention and approval performance	Better decisioning can increase merchant sales while lowering fraud costs, creating room for durable fees.
Chargeback costs and gross profit per transaction	Approval rates, guaranteed chargeback costs, merchant retention and gross profit per transaction drive economics.
SBC-adjusted earnings and repurchase discipline	TTM FCF was approximately $46.6 million and SBC $45.8 million, leaving limited economic cash generation after compensation.

Business Overview

Riskified helps merchants approve legitimate online orders and manage fraud, chargebacks and policy abuse. Its chargeback-guarantee model combines decision software with financial exposure to covered losses. Revenue depends on merchant volume, contract pricing, product mix and risk selection. Integrations and accumulated transaction data support retention, but merchants can compare approval rates and economic outcomes across multiple providers.

Business Takeaway

Riskified helps merchants approve legitimate online orders and manage fraud, chargebacks and policy abuse. Approval rates, guaranteed chargeback costs, merchant retention and gross profit per transaction drive economics.

Industry, TAM & Market Share

E-commerce fraud and abuse remain persistent needs, with competition from specialists, payment platforms and in-house merchant tools. Total online sales are not directly monetizable TAM. Approval improvement and loss performance determine the economically addressable fee pool.

Market-Share Analysis

Comparable same-definition share data for the subject and its principal rivals were not established. TAM estimates and company-specific volume measures are not treated as directly comparable market shares. The positioning analysis below is more reliable than a table of unmatched percentages.

Competitive Scale / Position

Company / Platform	Primary Position	Relative Scale	Growth Direction	Investment Relevance
Forter (private)	Direct: merchant fraud decisions and identity/risk controls	Product scope; no matched operating-scale series	Competes for merchant risk budgets	Customer choice in the stated segment only
Signifyd (private)	Direct: commerce fraud protection and chargeback guarantees	Product scope; no matched operating-scale series	Competes on approval/loss economics	Customer choice in the stated segment only
Merchant/processor internal fraud tools	Substitute: in-house or bundled transaction screening	Product scope; no matched operating-scale series	Build-versus-buy and guarantee scope matter	Customer choice in the stated segment only

Industry Takeaway

Approval improvement and loss performance determine the economically addressable fee pool. The base case requires evidence of profitable adoption within that market.

Customer Economics

Approval rates, guaranteed chargeback costs, merchant retention and gross profit per transaction drive economics. Higher revenue can be unattractive if risk costs rise faster. Competitive win rates are company-reported and should be tested against retention and realized margins.

Customer-Economics Takeaway

The economic test is SBC-adjusted earnings and repurchase discipline. Competitive win rates are company-reported and should be tested against retention and realized margins.

Competitive Landscape & Moat

Competitive Landscape

Fraud-decision providers and covered-loss economics are the relevant comparison. PayPal and dLocal are removed as broad payment-volume proxies.

Competitor	Market Share	Positioning	Advantages vs. Company	Disadvantages vs. Company	Current Direction
Forter (private)	No consistent comparable series	Direct: merchant fraud decisions and identity/risk controls	Transaction decisioning and merchant integrations	Guarantee terms and loss exposure differ by product	Competes for merchant risk budgets
Signifyd (private)	No consistent comparable series	Direct: commerce fraud protection and chargeback guarantees	Merchant guarantee and decision workflows	Pricing, approval rates and covered losses differ	Competes on approval/loss economics
Merchant/processor internal fraud tools	No consistent comparable series	Substitute: in-house or bundled transaction screening	Existing transaction integration and lower separate vendor spend	Merchant retains more operating/risk-management responsibility	Build-versus-buy and guarantee scope matter

Moat Assessment

Merchant integrations, transaction data and decisioning experience create moderate advantages. Forter and Signifyd remain important direct peers. Data is useful only if it leads to consistently better approval and loss outcomes.

Moat direction: Stable — an analytical judgment about product and distribution economics, not a measured market-share claim.

Competitive Takeaway

Merchant integrations, transaction data and decisioning experience create moderate advantages. The direct rivals determine commercial pressure; diversified or sector anchors provide valuation context and are not substitutes for direct competition.

Financial Profile

Historical Financials

Standardized period history (reviewed 2026-11-07): Completed issuer fiscal years only, plus actually disclosed standalone quarters and cumulative YTD for the latest open FY. Currency USD, flows in millions, with fiscal dates defined by the issuer. Values marked derived come from disclosed period differences/sums, not TTM. Missing = N/D (not zero). Company-defined FCF includes capex and capitalized software; Q1 derived from first-half less Q2 as separately disclosed in the 2026 Q2 shareholder release.

Period	Revenue	Growth	Gross Margin	Operating Margin	FCF	FCF Margin	SBC	Diluted Shares	Cash	Debt
FY2024	327.52	10.05%	52.24%	-14.56%	39.06	11.93%	57.83	171	376.06	27.53
FY2025	344.64	5.23%	51.76%	-9.79%	33.07	9.59%	51.63	157	297.58	25.02
Q1 FY2026	$88.268M (derived from disclosed periods)	N/D	52.0%	N/D	$9.02M (derived from disclosed periods)	10.2%	$10.981M (derived from disclosed periods)	N/D	N/D	N/D
Q2 FY2026	$98.691M	N/D	45.6%	N/D	$12.934M	13.1%	$10.373M	N/D	N/D	N/D
H1 FY2026	$186.959M	N/D	48.6%	N/D	$21.954M	11.7%	$21.354M	N/D	N/D	N/D

Financial Takeaways

TTM FCF was approximately $46.6 million and SBC $45.8 million, leaving limited economic cash generation after compensation. Repurchases have reduced shares materially, but consume balance-sheet resources. The model uses sustainable diluted earnings after guarantee losses and ongoing compensation, rather than capitalizing the full cash balance and unadjusted FCF together.

Financial direction: Mixed — assess the reported trend alongside dilution and the balance sheet.

Management & Capital Allocation

Management has improved growth and returned capital. It must demonstrate that new merchant wins maintain attractive risk-adjusted margins. Monitor repurchase pricing, compensation dilution and gross-profit growth rather than revenue alone.

Management Takeaway

Monitor repurchase pricing, compensation dilution and gross-profit growth rather than revenue alone.

Valuation

Current Valuation

Metric	Value
Price Snapshot	$8.62 — 2026-11-03 regular-session close, America/New_York
Market Capitalization	$1.16B
Enterprise Value	$957.93M
Trailing P/E	n/a
Provider forward P/E	28.99
EV / Sales	2.60

Comparable Company Analysis

Company	Relevance	Public / Private	Forward P/E	EV / Sales	Growth / Margin / Risk Context
RSKD — Riskified Ltd.	Subject company	Public	28.99	2.60	merchant fraud and chargeback protection; 3Y revenue-growth estimate 12.92%; operating margin -5.73%
Forter; Signifyd	Direct operating competitor / substitute	Private	N/A	N/A	direct fraud decisions and transaction protection; no compatible standalone public multiple used
Merchant/processor internal fraud tools	Substitute: in-house or bundled transaction screening	Operating alternative / no standalone security	N/D — no matched snapshot collected	N/D — no matched snapshot collected	Build-versus-buy and guarantee scope matter

Comparable takeaway: Fraud-decision providers and covered-loss economics are the relevant comparison. PayPal and dLocal are removed as broad payment-volume proxies. Quoted multiples retain their original dated snapshot; missing matched multiples are not estimated. Consolidated parent multiples do not isolate the competing product. No mechanical peer average is used.

The base terminal P/E is 22×, versus the provider's current forward P/E of 28.99×. Holding that quoted multiple constant on this model's 2029 EPS gives an illustrative present value of $7.83, versus the central base FV of $5.94. Earnings definitions differ, so this is a sensitivity check; it makes the dependence on a rerating or derating explicit.

Valuation Scenarios

Scenario	Key Assumptions	Fair Value	Probability	Probability Rationale	Return From Price Snapshot
Bear	3Y revenue CAGR 6%; sustainable 2029 EPS $0.12 after compensation; 14× P/E; 14% discount rate; Risk costs and pricing pressure limit 2029 economic EPS to $0.12.	$1.13	25%	Execution, financing or competitive setbacks remain credible	-86.9%
Base	3Y revenue CAGR 16%; sustainable 2029 EPS $0.40 after compensation; 22× P/E; 14% discount rate; Profitable merchant growth produces $0.40 of 2029 economic EPS.	$5.94	50%	Most likely operating trajectory, requiring measurable progress	-31.1%
Bull	3Y revenue CAGR 25%; sustainable 2029 EPS $0.80 after compensation; 28× P/E; 14% discount rate; Strong product adoption and loss performance produce $0.80 of 2029 economic EPS.	$15.12	25%	Successful product conversion and operating leverage; not assured	+75.4%
Probability-Weighted	Sum of each scenario value × its probability	$7.03	100%	Judgmental scenario probabilities	-18.4%

Valuation Takeaway

• Primary valuation method: Present value of sustainable 2029 equity earnings × scenario P/E, plus assumed interim dividends. The three-year discount horizon approximates late-2029 earning power.
• Cross-check methods: Direct competition, quoted peer multiples, current cash conversion, and the separate revenue/share/net-margin bridge in the valuation workpaper.
• Key valuation dependencies: Merchant retention and approval performance; Chargeback costs and gross profit per transaction; SBC-adjusted earnings and repurchase discipline. All forward figures are independent research assumptions, not company guidance or consensus.
• Valuation confidence / Risk Level: 48/100 / Medium-High. Scenario values are sensitive to sustainable earnings and terminal multiples.
• Margin-of-safety conclusion: Avoid at $8.77. New-file boundaries use Strong Buy = min(P/W FV ÷ 1.5, 1.1 × bear FV), Buy upper = P/W FV ÷ 1.25, Avoid above = P/W FV ÷ 0.90. Returns are to present fair value, not annualized returns or price targets for a particular date.

Analyst Questions

The table consolidates related questions and follow-ups from each material participant in the complete call.

Analyst / Firm	Core Question	Management Response	Research Read-Through
Ryan Tomasello / KBW	Why do revenue and volume growth differ as fraud exposure changes?	Management said new higher-risk business increases monetization.	Confirm that this opportunity converts into profitable recurring demand.
Connor Passarella / Truist	How does account abuse expand the product opportunity?	Management said broader identity context supports new products.	Confirm that this opportunity converts into profitable recurring demand.
Cris Kennedy / William Blair	What do retention and expansion indicate about acceleration?	Management said NRR is about 105% and new business drives acceleration.	Check repeat usage and cohort economics rather than initial sales alone.
Timothy Chiodo / UBS	What problem does the Marqeta partnership address?	Management said authorization friction extends beyond merchants' own decisions.	Confirm that this opportunity converts into profitable recurring demand.

Analyst-Q&A Takeaway

Higher-risk new business raises revenue faster than protected volume while pressuring gross margin. New customers lead growth; broader account-abuse products need to preserve underwriting and service economics.

Thesis Monitoring

Driver	Current State	Positive Trigger / Catalyst	Negative Trigger / Falsifier	What It Changes
Merchant retention and approval performance	Better decisioning can increase merchant sales while lowering fraud costs, creating room for durable fees.	Revenue trajectory sustains approximately 16% annual growth on a comparable basis	Growth remains below the 6% bear assumption over a full operating cycle	Revenue outlook and scenario probabilities
Chargeback costs and gross profit per transaction	Approval rates, guaranteed chargeback costs, merchant retention and gross profit per transaction drive economics.	After-cost earnings progress toward the base implied net margin of 8.9%	Competition, credit losses or service costs make that margin trajectory unattainable	Margins, moat score and valuation multiple
SBC-adjusted earnings and repurchase discipline	TTM FCF was approximately $46.6 million and SBC $45.8 million, leaving limited economic cash generation after compensation.	Financing and compensation remain consistent with 128.1M economic shares in the 2029 base case	Required capital or cumulative dilution materially exceeds the model without matching earnings	Financial score, confidence and downside value

Quality & Opportunity Scorecards

Quality Score

Component	Score	Weight	Weighted Contribution	Evidence
Business durability and economics	65	25%	16.3	Approval rates, guaranteed chargeback costs, merchant retention and gross profit per transaction drive economics.
Moat and competitive position	66	25%	16.5	Merchant integrations, transaction data and decisioning experience create moderate advantages.
Growth runway and durability	73	20%	14.6	E-commerce fraud and abuse remain persistent needs, with competition from specialists, payment platforms and in-house merchant tools.
Financial quality and balance sheet	72	15%	10.8	TTM FCF was approximately $46.6 million and SBC $45.8 million, leaving limited economic cash generation after compensation.
Management, governance and capital allocation	63	15%	9.5	Management has improved growth and returned capital.
Quality Score	67.6	100%	67.6	Weighted score, independent of ownership and current price

• Quality Tier: B
• Speculative override: None

Opportunity Score

Component	Raw Input	Normalized Score	Weight	Weighted Contribution
Quality	67.6	67.6	30%	20.3
Probability-weighted upside	-18.4%	13.1	35%	4.6
Bear-case downside	-86.9%	0.0	20%	0.0
Risk / valuation confidence	48	48.0	15%	7.2
Opportunity Score		32.1	100%	32.1

• Opportunity Rank: #61 of 76
• Zone Status: Avoid

Portfolio Context

• Tracking tier: Primary Watchlist
• Owned: No
• Tracking source of truth: my_watchlist.md
• Portfolio source of truth: portfolio/holdings.md
• Scoring independence: Ownership, account, shares, position size and cost basis do not change research, valuation, Quality, Opportunity, rank or zones.

Investment Decision History

Timestamp	Price	Rating	Zone Status	Buy Zone	Strong Buy Zone	Avoid Chasing Above	Base FV	P/W FV	P/W Return	Quality	Opportunity / Rank	Change / Rationale
2026-10-21 (America/New_York)	$8.77	Avoid	Avoid	>$1.24–$5.62	≤ $1.24	> $7.81	$5.94	$7.03	-19.8%	67.6	31.1 / #58	Initial missing-file analysis; common-universe ranking; independent scenario assumptions

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Material Sources

Source	Type	Date / Period	What It Supports
Riskified Reports Strong Second Quarter of 2026 with Accelerating Revenue Growth / Riskified	Company IR / earnings filing	Q2 2026	Latest operating results, guidance, products and financial supplement
RSKD complete earnings-call transcript	Transcript	Q2 2026	Prepared remarks and all material Q&A exchanges
RSKD regular-session historical price	Market data	2026-10-20 close	Common price used in returns, scores and zones
RSKD valuation statistics	Market data	2026-10-20 close; ratios retrieved 2026-10-21	Market capitalization, shares, quoted multiples and current ratios
RSKD historical income statement	Standardized financial statements	Latest reported period and two preceding fiscal years	Historical income statement; source-native currency and definitions
RSKD historical balance sheet	Standardized financial statements	Latest reported period and two preceding fiscal years	Historical balance sheet; source-native currency and definitions
RSKD historical cash flows	Standardized financial statements	Latest reported period and two preceding fiscal years	Historical cash flows; source-native currency and definitions
Issuer interim earnings / primary filing — RSKD	Issuer IR / regulatory exhibit	Current fiscal period through 2026-11-07	Standalone period, SBC/FCF and financial definition provenance