Ransomware resilience and data recovery are durable enterprise needs, and the platform can expand across customer workloads. Q2 FY27 subscription ARR grew 33% to $1.66 billion and revenue 38% to $427 million. The key question is whether growth produces sustainable owner earnings after compensation and customer-acquisition spending. A high recurring-growth profile does not justify every revenue multiple.

What the Market May Be Mispricing

Debate	Research judgment
Subscription ARR quality and customer expansion	Ransomware resilience and data recovery are durable enterprise needs, and the platform can expand across customer workloads.
Recovery differentiation and competitive wins	Subscription retention, expansion ARR, large-customer growth, recovery use cases and acquisition payback drive economics.
SBC-adjusted profitability and dilution	Q2 FCF margin was about 15%, but TTM SBC of $342 million exceeded FCF of $304 million.

Rubrik sells subscription software for data protection, recovery and cyber resilience across enterprise, cloud and SaaS environments. It increasingly positions the platform around security and AI-related data operations. Recurring subscriptions and customer expansion drive ARR, while infrastructure compatibility and recovery reliability are central to adoption. Private Veeam and Cohesity remain direct competitors even though their public-market valuation multiples are unavailable.

Business Takeaway

Rubrik sells subscription software for data protection, recovery and cyber resilience across enterprise, cloud and SaaS environments. Subscription retention, expansion ARR, large-customer growth, recovery use cases and acquisition payback drive economics.

Cyber resilience spending benefits from growing data and attack exposure, but backup, security and cloud-platform categories overlap. Broad cyber TAM estimates should be reduced for direct competition and existing customer budgets. Recovery outcomes and operational reliability are more important than category labels.

Market-Share Analysis

Comparable same-definition share data for the subject and its principal rivals were not established. TAM estimates and company-specific volume measures are not treated as directly comparable market shares. The positioning analysis below is more reliable than a table of unmatched percentages.

Competitive Scale / Position

Company / Platform	Primary Position	Relative Scale	Growth Direction	Investment Relevance
Veeam (private)	Direct: enterprise backup, recovery and data resilience	Product scope; no matched operating-scale series	Competes for data-protection budgets	Customer choice in the stated segment only
Cohesity (private)	Direct: enterprise data protection and recovery	Product scope; no matched operating-scale series	Competes for resilience platform consolidation	Customer choice in the stated segment only
Commvault (CVLT)	Direct: enterprise/cloud backup and cyber recovery	Product scope; no matched operating-scale series	Competes for backup and recovery contracts	Customer choice in the stated segment only
Dell; IBM	Direct segments: data protection and recovery products	Product scope; no matched operating-scale series	Product-specific overlap	Customer choice in the stated segment only

Industry Takeaway

Recovery outcomes and operational reliability are more important than category labels. The base case requires evidence of profitable adoption within that market.

Competitive Landscape

The shared function is protecting and recovering enterprise data. SentinelOne and CrowdStrike primarily prevent/detect threats and are complementary security categories, not clean backup operating comparables.

Competitor	Market Share	Positioning	Advantages vs. Company	Disadvantages vs. Company	Current Direction
Veeam (private)	No consistent comparable series	Direct: enterprise backup, recovery and data resilience	Broad backup installed base and integrations	Different security architecture and deployment mix	Competes for data-protection budgets
Cohesity (private)	No consistent comparable series	Direct: enterprise data protection and recovery	Enterprise backup/data-management portfolio	Different installed base and platform architecture	Competes for resilience platform consolidation
Commvault (CVLT)	No consistent comparable series	Direct: enterprise/cloud backup and cyber recovery	Established enterprise protection workflows	Different transition, deployment and margin mix	Competes for backup and recovery contracts
Dell; IBM	No consistent comparable series	Direct segments: data protection and recovery products	Enterprise infrastructure distribution	Parent hardware/services earnings are not backup-only economics	Product-specific overlap

Moat Assessment

Integrated recovery workflows, customer trust and data-policy switching costs create meaningful barriers. Veeam, Cohesity and cloud providers have substantial capabilities. The moat strengthens when Rubrik becomes an operational standard across more of a customer's estate.

Moat direction: Strengthening — an analytical judgment about product and distribution economics, not a measured market-share claim.

Competitive Takeaway

Integrated recovery workflows, customer trust and data-policy switching costs create meaningful barriers. The direct rivals determine commercial pressure; diversified or sector anchors provide valuation context and are not substitutes for direct competition.

Historical Financials

Financial reporting periods follow the issuer's fiscal year: completed FY rows plus standalone current-year quarters and cumulative H1/9M for FY2027. Revenue, FCF and SBC are flows; cash is a period-end balance. FCF = operating cash flow minus property/equipment capex from SEC company facts; quarterly FCF after Q1 and any quarterly SBC derived from YTD are visibly marked. Missing values are N/D, not zero. Unit: USD millions. Data extracted from SEC-tagged filings as of 2026-11-07. Company-specific FCF definitions and acquisition effects may require further reconciliation.

Period	Revenue	Growth	Gross Margin	Operating Margin	FCF	FCF Margin	SBC	Diluted Shares	Cash	Debt
FY2025	886.54	41.19%	70.02%	-127.92%	31.34	3.54%	913.91	154	705.14	350.81
FY2026	1,316	48.46%	80.10%	-26.24%	253.28	19.24%	329.37	196	1,676	1,168
Q1 FY2027	$387.068	N/D	80.5%	-13.6%	$77.412 (derived: CFO - capex)	20.0%	$73.368	203.668	$429.397	N/D
Q2 FY2027	$427.26	N/D	78.4%	-16.8%	$71.247 (derived: current YTD - prior YTD)	16.7%	$101.018 (derived: current YTD - prior YTD)	206.097	$416.166	N/D
H1 FY2027	$814.328	N/D	79.4%	-15.3%	$148.659 (derived: CFO - capex)	18.3%	$174.386	204.903	$416.166	N/D

Financial Takeaways

Q2 FCF margin was about 15%, but TTM SBC of $342 million exceeded FCF of $304 million. GAAP operating losses and dilution remain material. The model uses economic EPS after compensation and financing rather than treating ARR or adjusted FCF as distributable earnings.

Financial direction: Improving — assess the reported trend alongside dilution and the balance sheet.

Current Valuation

Metric	Value
Price Snapshot	$116.51 — 2026-11-03 regular-session close, America/New_York
Market Capitalization	$23.76B
Enterprise Value	$23.16B
Trailing P/E	n/a
Provider forward P/E	236.66
EV / Sales	15.02

Comparable Company Analysis

Company	Relevance	Public / Private	Forward P/E	EV / Sales	Growth / Margin / Risk Context
RBRK — Rubrik, Inc.	Subject company	Public	236.66	15.02	cyber resilience and data security; 3Y revenue-growth estimate 23.54%; operating margin -18.31%
Veeam; Cohesity	Direct operating competitor / substitute	Private	N/A	N/A	direct backup, recovery and data-resilience platforms; no compatible standalone public multiple used
Commvault (CVLT)	Direct: enterprise/cloud backup and cyber recovery	Public	N/D — no matched snapshot collected	N/D — no matched snapshot collected	Competes for backup and recovery contracts
Dell; IBM	Direct segments: data protection and recovery products	Public	N/D — no matched snapshot collected	N/D — no matched snapshot collected	Product-specific overlap

Comparable takeaway: The shared function is protecting and recovering enterprise data. SentinelOne and CrowdStrike primarily prevent/detect threats and are complementary security categories, not clean backup operating comparables. Quoted multiples retain their original dated snapshot; missing matched multiples are not estimated. Consolidated parent multiples do not isolate the competing product. No mechanical peer average is used.

The base terminal P/E is 32×, versus the provider's current forward P/E of 236.66×. Holding that quoted multiple constant on this model's 2029 EPS gives an illustrative present value of $399.35, versus the central base FV of $54.00. Earnings definitions differ, so this is a sensitivity check; it makes the dependence on a rerating or derating explicit.

Valuation Scenarios

Scenario	Key Assumptions	Fair Value	Probability	Probability Rationale	Return From Price Snapshot
Bear	3Y revenue CAGR 17%; sustainable 2029 EPS $1.10 after compensation; 22× P/E; 14% discount rate; Growth moderates before margins mature; 2029 economic EPS is $1.10.	$16.33	25%	Execution, financing or competitive setbacks remain credible	-86.0%
Base	3Y revenue CAGR 28%; sustainable 2029 EPS $2.50 after compensation; 32× P/E; 14% discount rate; Platform expansion and operating leverage produce $2.50 of 2029 economic EPS.	$54.00	50%	Most likely operating trajectory, requiring measurable progress	-53.7%
Bull	3Y revenue CAGR 39%; sustainable 2029 EPS $4.50 after compensation; 40× P/E; 14% discount rate; Strong cyber-resilience adoption produces $4.50 of 2029 economic EPS.	$121.49	25%	Successful product conversion and operating leverage; not assured	+4.3%
Probability-Weighted	Sum of each scenario value × its probability	$61.46	100%	Judgmental scenario probabilities	-47.2%

Valuation Takeaway

• Primary valuation method: Present value of sustainable 2029 equity earnings × scenario P/E, plus assumed interim dividends. The three-year discount horizon approximates late-2029 earning power.
• Cross-check methods: Direct competition, quoted peer multiples, current cash conversion, and the separate revenue/share/net-margin bridge in the valuation workpaper.
• Key valuation dependencies: Subscription ARR quality and customer expansion; Recovery differentiation and competitive wins; SBC-adjusted profitability and dilution. All forward figures are independent research assumptions, not company guidance or consensus.
• Valuation confidence / Risk Level: 54/100 / Medium-High. Scenario values are sensitive to sustainable earnings and terminal multiples.
• Margin-of-safety conclusion: Avoid at $114.59. New-file boundaries use Strong Buy = min(P/W FV ÷ 1.5, 1.1 × bear FV), Buy upper = P/W FV ÷ 1.25, Avoid above = P/W FV ÷ 0.90. Returns are to present fair value, not annualized returns or price targets for a particular date.

Management has executed strongly on recurring growth and improved cash conversion. Capital discipline and sales productivity must now convert that scale into per-share profit. Monitor revenue normalization, compensation intensity and the economics of new product expansion.

Management Takeaway

Monitor revenue normalization, compensation intensity and the economics of new product expansion.

Analyzed call: Q2 FY2027, complete material Q&A · Research snapshot: 2026-10-21

The table consolidates related questions and follow-ups from each material participant in the complete call.

Analyst / Firm	Core Question	Management Response	Research Read-Through
Saket Kalia / Barclays	Does reported or guided ARR include the Strata acquisition?	Management said Strata ARR is excluded from both results and guidance.	Judge allocation on per-share returns after financing and dilution.
Fatima Boolani / Citi	Why were net-new ARR and growth expectations increased?	Management said strong execution supported higher growth assumptions.	Treat the stated timetable as conditional on demonstrated execution.
John DiFucci / Guggenheim	How does the AI security architecture differ from point products?	Management said its platform approach extends beyond individual point products.	Confirm that this opportunity converts into profitable recurring demand.
Gregg Moskowitz / Mizuho	How much cloud-migration accounting impact remains?	Management said most of the migration impact is complete.	Confirm that this opportunity converts into profitable recurring demand.
Eric Heath / KeyBanc	How does resilience address AI-related threats?	Management said resilience complements prevention and detection.	Confirm that this opportunity converts into profitable recurring demand.
Keith Bachman / BMO	How should investors assess expectations for the agent cloud?	Management emphasized long-term platform development.	Confirm that this opportunity converts into profitable recurring demand.
Junaid Siddiqui / Truist	How exposed is Rubrik to hardware-cost inflation?	Management said the subscription model limits direct exposure.	Require durable cash conversion after compensation and ongoing investment.
Param Singh / Oppenheimer	How does identity adoption expand the offering?	Management said recovery capabilities are extending into prevention.	Check repeat usage and cohort economics rather than initial sales alone.
Gray Powell / BTIG	How do cloud and self-hosted offerings compare economically?	Management said both are growing and self-hosted offerings have a margin advantage.	Confirm that this opportunity converts into profitable recurring demand.
Rudy Kessinger / D.A. Davidson	Do hardware lead times materially affect subscriptions?	Management said there is no material subscription impact.	Confirm that this opportunity converts into profitable recurring demand.
Joe Vandrick / Scotiabank	What supports demand for identity resilience?	Management said identity compromise reinforces the need for resilience.	Confirm that this opportunity converts into profitable recurring demand.

Analyst-Q&A Takeaway

Underlying ARR growth is less dependent on migration and excludes the acquisition contribution cited in questions. Identity and agent security broaden demand, but sustainable margins must absorb continuing compensation.

Source	Type	Date / Period	What It Supports
Rubrik - Rubrik Reports Second Quarter Fiscal Year 2027 Financial Results	Company IR / earnings filing	Q2 FY2027	Latest operating results, guidance, products and financial supplement
RBRK complete earnings-call transcript	Transcript	Q2 FY2027	Prepared remarks and all material Q&A exchanges
RBRK regular-session historical price	Market data	2026-10-20 close	Common price used in returns, scores and zones
RBRK valuation statistics	Market data	2026-10-20 close; ratios retrieved 2026-10-21	Market capitalization, shares, quoted multiples and current ratios
RBRK historical income statement	Standardized financial statements	Latest reported period and two preceding fiscal years	Historical income statement; source-native currency and definitions
RBRK historical balance sheet	Standardized financial statements	Latest reported period and two preceding fiscal years	Historical balance sheet; source-native currency and definitions
RBRK historical cash flows	Standardized financial statements	Latest reported period and two preceding fiscal years	Historical cash flows; source-native currency and definitions
SentinelOne, Inc. statistics	Comparable-company market data	2026-10-20 regular close	Peer multiples and financial context; public quote basis
FY2026 10-K — named data-protection competitors	Regulatory filing / primary product evidence	FY ended 2026-01-31; checked 2026-10-28	Veeam, Cohesity, Commvault, Dell and IBM backup/recovery overlap
SEC XBRL company facts — RBRK	Regulatory filing (as tagged)	FY2027, through 2026-07-31	Current-year standalone-quarter and year-to-date source facts for FCF, SBC, revenue and other reported metrics

Research context

• Company: Rubrik, Inc.

• Ticker: RBRK

• Exchange: NYSE

• Sector / Industry: Technology / cyber resilience and data security

• Template version: 2.7

• Research date: 2026-10-21

• Valuation / score price snapshot: $116.51 — 2026-11-03 regular-session close, America/New_York

• Tracking tier: Primary Watchlist

• Owned: No

• Primary operating period reviewed: Q2 FY2027

• Historical period reviewed: TTM, FY 2026, FY 2025; latest balance-sheet date shown below

• Latest investor presentation reviewed: Results release and associated financial tables; no separate slide deck materially used

• Latest earnings call reviewed: Q2 FY2027, complete material Q&A

• Latest post-earnings management commentary reviewed: No separate later management presentation incorporated

• Price snapshot date: 2026-11-03

• Price snapshot time / timezone: Regular-session close, America/New_York (including exchange half-days)

• Competitor / analyst-Q&A audit: 2026-10-28; original operating, price and valuation snapshots retained.

RBRK — Rubrik, Inc.

Company & Research Metadata

• Company: Rubrik, Inc.

• Ticker: RBRK

• Exchange: NYSE

• Sector / Industry: Technology / cyber resilience and data security

• Template version: 2.7

• Research date: 2026-10-21

• Valuation / score price snapshot: $116.51 — 2026-11-03 regular-session close, America/New_York

• Tracking tier: Primary Watchlist

• Owned: No

• Primary operating period reviewed: Q2 FY2027

• Historical period reviewed: TTM, FY 2026, FY 2025; latest balance-sheet date shown below

• Latest investor presentation reviewed: Results release and associated financial tables; no separate slide deck materially used

• Latest earnings call reviewed: Q2 FY2027, complete material Q&A

• Latest post-earnings management commentary reviewed: No separate later management presentation incorporated

• Price snapshot date: 2026-11-03

• Price snapshot time / timezone: Regular-session close, America/New_York (including exchange half-days)

• Competitor / analyst-Q&A audit: 2026-10-28; original operating, price and valuation snapshots retained.

What's Changed Since Previous Review

Current Review: 2026-10-28

Previous Review: 2026-10-21

Update Trigger: Competitor relevance and analyst-Q&A correction

Area	Previous View	Current View	Investment Impact
Competition	Preceding operating and comparable-company classifications	Product/customer/geographic boundaries corrected; direct rivals separated from substitutes, partners and valuation anchors	Corrects the competitive comparison; does not by itself re-underwrite the valuation
Analyst questions	Prior source-linked Q&A summaries	Complete questions and sentence-form management answers; all 11 existing rows retained	Improves readability while preserving the recorded exchange meaning
Valuation and scores	Approved operating/price snapshots, scenarios, scores and decisions	Preserved	No price refresh, rerank or change to valuation assumptions in this correction pass

Thesis: No new fundamental thesis determination is made in this correction pass. The prior investment decision is preserved; the corrected competitive scope should govern the next substantive review.

Investment Snapshot

Metric	Current View
Price Snapshot	$116.51 — 2026-11-03 regular-session close, America/New_York
Rating / Zone Status	Avoid
Bear / Base / Bull Fair Value	$16.33 / $54.00 / $121.49
Scenario Probabilities	25% / 50% / 25%
Probability-Weighted Fair Value	$61.46
Probability-Weighted Expected Return	-47.2%
Bear-Case Return	-86.0%
Strong Buy Zone	≤ $17.96
Buy Zone	>$17.96–$49.17
Avoid Chasing Above	> $68.29
Quality Score / Tier	80.0 / Tier A
Opportunity Score / Rank	32.1 / #62 of 76
Risk Level	Medium-High
Tracking / Ownership	Primary Watchlist / Not Owned

Decision rationale: RBRK is Avoid at $114.59, with -46.4% probability-weighted upside and -85.7% bear-case return. Ransomware resilience and data recovery are durable enterprise needs, and the platform can expand across customer workloads. Confidence is 54/100 because the earnings conversion, competitive and capital assumptions below remain conditional.

Investment Thesis

Ransomware resilience and data recovery are durable enterprise needs, and the platform can expand across customer workloads. Q2 FY27 subscription ARR grew 33% to $1.66 billion and revenue 38% to $427 million. The key question is whether growth produces sustainable owner earnings after compensation and customer-acquisition spending. A high recurring-growth profile does not justify every revenue multiple.

What the Market May Be Mispricing

Debate	Research judgment
Subscription ARR quality and customer expansion	Ransomware resilience and data recovery are durable enterprise needs, and the platform can expand across customer workloads.
Recovery differentiation and competitive wins	Subscription retention, expansion ARR, large-customer growth, recovery use cases and acquisition payback drive economics.
SBC-adjusted profitability and dilution	Q2 FCF margin was about 15%, but TTM SBC of $342 million exceeded FCF of $304 million.

Business Overview

Rubrik sells subscription software for data protection, recovery and cyber resilience across enterprise, cloud and SaaS environments. It increasingly positions the platform around security and AI-related data operations. Recurring subscriptions and customer expansion drive ARR, while infrastructure compatibility and recovery reliability are central to adoption. Private Veeam and Cohesity remain direct competitors even though their public-market valuation multiples are unavailable.

Business Takeaway

Rubrik sells subscription software for data protection, recovery and cyber resilience across enterprise, cloud and SaaS environments. Subscription retention, expansion ARR, large-customer growth, recovery use cases and acquisition payback drive economics.

Industry, TAM & Market Share

Cyber resilience spending benefits from growing data and attack exposure, but backup, security and cloud-platform categories overlap. Broad cyber TAM estimates should be reduced for direct competition and existing customer budgets. Recovery outcomes and operational reliability are more important than category labels.

Market-Share Analysis

Comparable same-definition share data for the subject and its principal rivals were not established. TAM estimates and company-specific volume measures are not treated as directly comparable market shares. The positioning analysis below is more reliable than a table of unmatched percentages.

Competitive Scale / Position

Company / Platform	Primary Position	Relative Scale	Growth Direction	Investment Relevance
Veeam (private)	Direct: enterprise backup, recovery and data resilience	Product scope; no matched operating-scale series	Competes for data-protection budgets	Customer choice in the stated segment only
Cohesity (private)	Direct: enterprise data protection and recovery	Product scope; no matched operating-scale series	Competes for resilience platform consolidation	Customer choice in the stated segment only
Commvault (CVLT)	Direct: enterprise/cloud backup and cyber recovery	Product scope; no matched operating-scale series	Competes for backup and recovery contracts	Customer choice in the stated segment only
Dell; IBM	Direct segments: data protection and recovery products	Product scope; no matched operating-scale series	Product-specific overlap	Customer choice in the stated segment only

Industry Takeaway

Recovery outcomes and operational reliability are more important than category labels. The base case requires evidence of profitable adoption within that market.

Customer Economics

Subscription retention, expansion ARR, large-customer growth, recovery use cases and acquisition payback drive economics. Material-rights revenue affects reported comparisons and should be normalized consistently. More protected data creates value only when pricing and service costs support attractive incremental gross profit.

Customer-Economics Takeaway

The economic test is SBC-adjusted profitability and dilution. More protected data creates value only when pricing and service costs support attractive incremental gross profit.

Competitive Landscape & Moat

Competitive Landscape

The shared function is protecting and recovering enterprise data. SentinelOne and CrowdStrike primarily prevent/detect threats and are complementary security categories, not clean backup operating comparables.

Competitor	Market Share	Positioning	Advantages vs. Company	Disadvantages vs. Company	Current Direction
Veeam (private)	No consistent comparable series	Direct: enterprise backup, recovery and data resilience	Broad backup installed base and integrations	Different security architecture and deployment mix	Competes for data-protection budgets
Cohesity (private)	No consistent comparable series	Direct: enterprise data protection and recovery	Enterprise backup/data-management portfolio	Different installed base and platform architecture	Competes for resilience platform consolidation
Commvault (CVLT)	No consistent comparable series	Direct: enterprise/cloud backup and cyber recovery	Established enterprise protection workflows	Different transition, deployment and margin mix	Competes for backup and recovery contracts
Dell; IBM	No consistent comparable series	Direct segments: data protection and recovery products	Enterprise infrastructure distribution	Parent hardware/services earnings are not backup-only economics	Product-specific overlap

Moat Assessment

Integrated recovery workflows, customer trust and data-policy switching costs create meaningful barriers. Veeam, Cohesity and cloud providers have substantial capabilities. The moat strengthens when Rubrik becomes an operational standard across more of a customer's estate.

Moat direction: Strengthening — an analytical judgment about product and distribution economics, not a measured market-share claim.

Competitive Takeaway

Integrated recovery workflows, customer trust and data-policy switching costs create meaningful barriers. The direct rivals determine commercial pressure; diversified or sector anchors provide valuation context and are not substitutes for direct competition.

Financial Profile

Historical Financials

Financial reporting periods follow the issuer's fiscal year: completed FY rows plus standalone current-year quarters and cumulative H1/9M for FY2027. Revenue, FCF and SBC are flows; cash is a period-end balance. FCF = operating cash flow minus property/equipment capex from SEC company facts; quarterly FCF after Q1 and any quarterly SBC derived from YTD are visibly marked. Missing values are N/D, not zero. Unit: USD millions. Data extracted from SEC-tagged filings as of 2026-11-07. Company-specific FCF definitions and acquisition effects may require further reconciliation.

Period	Revenue	Growth	Gross Margin	Operating Margin	FCF	FCF Margin	SBC	Diluted Shares	Cash	Debt
FY2025	886.54	41.19%	70.02%	-127.92%	31.34	3.54%	913.91	154	705.14	350.81
FY2026	1,316	48.46%	80.10%	-26.24%	253.28	19.24%	329.37	196	1,676	1,168
Q1 FY2027	$387.068	N/D	80.5%	-13.6%	$77.412 (derived: CFO - capex)	20.0%	$73.368	203.668	$429.397	N/D
Q2 FY2027	$427.26	N/D	78.4%	-16.8%	$71.247 (derived: current YTD - prior YTD)	16.7%	$101.018 (derived: current YTD - prior YTD)	206.097	$416.166	N/D
H1 FY2027	$814.328	N/D	79.4%	-15.3%	$148.659 (derived: CFO - capex)	18.3%	$174.386	204.903	$416.166	N/D

Financial Takeaways

Q2 FCF margin was about 15%, but TTM SBC of $342 million exceeded FCF of $304 million. GAAP operating losses and dilution remain material. The model uses economic EPS after compensation and financing rather than treating ARR or adjusted FCF as distributable earnings.

Financial direction: Improving — assess the reported trend alongside dilution and the balance sheet.

Management & Capital Allocation

Management has executed strongly on recurring growth and improved cash conversion. Capital discipline and sales productivity must now convert that scale into per-share profit. Monitor revenue normalization, compensation intensity and the economics of new product expansion.

Management Takeaway

Monitor revenue normalization, compensation intensity and the economics of new product expansion.

Valuation

Current Valuation

Metric	Value
Price Snapshot	$116.51 — 2026-11-03 regular-session close, America/New_York
Market Capitalization	$23.76B
Enterprise Value	$23.16B
Trailing P/E	n/a
Provider forward P/E	236.66
EV / Sales	15.02

Comparable Company Analysis

Company	Relevance	Public / Private	Forward P/E	EV / Sales	Growth / Margin / Risk Context
RBRK — Rubrik, Inc.	Subject company	Public	236.66	15.02	cyber resilience and data security; 3Y revenue-growth estimate 23.54%; operating margin -18.31%
Veeam; Cohesity	Direct operating competitor / substitute	Private	N/A	N/A	direct backup, recovery and data-resilience platforms; no compatible standalone public multiple used
Commvault (CVLT)	Direct: enterprise/cloud backup and cyber recovery	Public	N/D — no matched snapshot collected	N/D — no matched snapshot collected	Competes for backup and recovery contracts
Dell; IBM	Direct segments: data protection and recovery products	Public	N/D — no matched snapshot collected	N/D — no matched snapshot collected	Product-specific overlap

Comparable takeaway: The shared function is protecting and recovering enterprise data. SentinelOne and CrowdStrike primarily prevent/detect threats and are complementary security categories, not clean backup operating comparables. Quoted multiples retain their original dated snapshot; missing matched multiples are not estimated. Consolidated parent multiples do not isolate the competing product. No mechanical peer average is used.

The base terminal P/E is 32×, versus the provider's current forward P/E of 236.66×. Holding that quoted multiple constant on this model's 2029 EPS gives an illustrative present value of $399.35, versus the central base FV of $54.00. Earnings definitions differ, so this is a sensitivity check; it makes the dependence on a rerating or derating explicit.

Valuation Scenarios

Scenario	Key Assumptions	Fair Value	Probability	Probability Rationale	Return From Price Snapshot
Bear	3Y revenue CAGR 17%; sustainable 2029 EPS $1.10 after compensation; 22× P/E; 14% discount rate; Growth moderates before margins mature; 2029 economic EPS is $1.10.	$16.33	25%	Execution, financing or competitive setbacks remain credible	-86.0%
Base	3Y revenue CAGR 28%; sustainable 2029 EPS $2.50 after compensation; 32× P/E; 14% discount rate; Platform expansion and operating leverage produce $2.50 of 2029 economic EPS.	$54.00	50%	Most likely operating trajectory, requiring measurable progress	-53.7%
Bull	3Y revenue CAGR 39%; sustainable 2029 EPS $4.50 after compensation; 40× P/E; 14% discount rate; Strong cyber-resilience adoption produces $4.50 of 2029 economic EPS.	$121.49	25%	Successful product conversion and operating leverage; not assured	+4.3%
Probability-Weighted	Sum of each scenario value × its probability	$61.46	100%	Judgmental scenario probabilities	-47.2%

Valuation Takeaway

• Primary valuation method: Present value of sustainable 2029 equity earnings × scenario P/E, plus assumed interim dividends. The three-year discount horizon approximates late-2029 earning power.
• Cross-check methods: Direct competition, quoted peer multiples, current cash conversion, and the separate revenue/share/net-margin bridge in the valuation workpaper.
• Key valuation dependencies: Subscription ARR quality and customer expansion; Recovery differentiation and competitive wins; SBC-adjusted profitability and dilution. All forward figures are independent research assumptions, not company guidance or consensus.
• Valuation confidence / Risk Level: 54/100 / Medium-High. Scenario values are sensitive to sustainable earnings and terminal multiples.
• Margin-of-safety conclusion: Avoid at $114.59. New-file boundaries use Strong Buy = min(P/W FV ÷ 1.5, 1.1 × bear FV), Buy upper = P/W FV ÷ 1.25, Avoid above = P/W FV ÷ 0.90. Returns are to present fair value, not annualized returns or price targets for a particular date.

Analyst Questions

The table consolidates related questions and follow-ups from each material participant in the complete call.

Analyst / Firm	Core Question	Management Response	Research Read-Through
Saket Kalia / Barclays	Does reported or guided ARR include the Strata acquisition?	Management said Strata ARR is excluded from both results and guidance.	Judge allocation on per-share returns after financing and dilution.
Fatima Boolani / Citi	Why were net-new ARR and growth expectations increased?	Management said strong execution supported higher growth assumptions.	Treat the stated timetable as conditional on demonstrated execution.
John DiFucci / Guggenheim	How does the AI security architecture differ from point products?	Management said its platform approach extends beyond individual point products.	Confirm that this opportunity converts into profitable recurring demand.
Gregg Moskowitz / Mizuho	How much cloud-migration accounting impact remains?	Management said most of the migration impact is complete.	Confirm that this opportunity converts into profitable recurring demand.
Eric Heath / KeyBanc	How does resilience address AI-related threats?	Management said resilience complements prevention and detection.	Confirm that this opportunity converts into profitable recurring demand.
Keith Bachman / BMO	How should investors assess expectations for the agent cloud?	Management emphasized long-term platform development.	Confirm that this opportunity converts into profitable recurring demand.
Junaid Siddiqui / Truist	How exposed is Rubrik to hardware-cost inflation?	Management said the subscription model limits direct exposure.	Require durable cash conversion after compensation and ongoing investment.
Param Singh / Oppenheimer	How does identity adoption expand the offering?	Management said recovery capabilities are extending into prevention.	Check repeat usage and cohort economics rather than initial sales alone.
Gray Powell / BTIG	How do cloud and self-hosted offerings compare economically?	Management said both are growing and self-hosted offerings have a margin advantage.	Confirm that this opportunity converts into profitable recurring demand.
Rudy Kessinger / D.A. Davidson	Do hardware lead times materially affect subscriptions?	Management said there is no material subscription impact.	Confirm that this opportunity converts into profitable recurring demand.
Joe Vandrick / Scotiabank	What supports demand for identity resilience?	Management said identity compromise reinforces the need for resilience.	Confirm that this opportunity converts into profitable recurring demand.

Analyst-Q&A Takeaway

Underlying ARR growth is less dependent on migration and excludes the acquisition contribution cited in questions. Identity and agent security broaden demand, but sustainable margins must absorb continuing compensation.

Thesis Monitoring

Driver	Current State	Positive Trigger / Catalyst	Negative Trigger / Falsifier	What It Changes
Subscription ARR quality and customer expansion	Ransomware resilience and data recovery are durable enterprise needs, and the platform can expand across customer workloads.	Revenue trajectory sustains approximately 28% annual growth on a comparable basis	Growth remains below the 17% bear assumption over a full operating cycle	Revenue outlook and scenario probabilities
Recovery differentiation and competitive wins	Subscription retention, expansion ARR, large-customer growth, recovery use cases and acquisition payback drive economics.	After-cost earnings progress toward the base implied net margin of 17.3%	Competition, credit losses or service costs make that margin trajectory unattainable	Margins, moat score and valuation multiple
SBC-adjusted profitability and dilution	Q2 FCF margin was about 15%, but TTM SBC of $342 million exceeded FCF of $304 million.	Financing and compensation remain consistent with 223.2M economic shares in the 2029 base case	Required capital or cumulative dilution materially exceeds the model without matching earnings	Financial score, confidence and downside value

Quality & Opportunity Scorecards

Quality Score

Component	Score	Weight	Weighted Contribution	Evidence
Business durability and economics	85	25%	21.3	Subscription retention, expansion ARR, large-customer growth, recovery use cases and acquisition payback drive economics.
Moat and competitive position	82	25%	20.5	Integrated recovery workflows, customer trust and data-policy switching costs create meaningful barriers.
Growth runway and durability	90	20%	18.0	Cyber resilience spending benefits from growing data and attack exposure, but backup, security and cloud-platform categories overlap.
Financial quality and balance sheet	64	15%	9.6	Q2 FCF margin was about 15%, but TTM SBC of $342 million exceeded FCF of $304 million.
Management, governance and capital allocation	71	15%	10.7	Management has executed strongly on recurring growth and improved cash conversion.
Quality Score	80.0	100%	80.0	Weighted score, independent of ownership and current price

• Quality Tier: A
• Speculative override: None

Opportunity Score

Component	Raw Input	Normalized Score	Weight	Weighted Contribution
Quality	80	80.0	30%	24.0
Probability-weighted upside	-47.2%	0.0	35%	0.0
Bear-case downside	-86.0%	0.0	20%	0.0
Risk / valuation confidence	54	54.0	15%	8.1
Opportunity Score		32.1	100%	32.1

• Opportunity Rank: #62 of 76
• Zone Status: Avoid

Portfolio Context

• Tracking tier: Primary Watchlist
• Owned: No
• Tracking source of truth: my_watchlist.md
• Portfolio source of truth: portfolio/holdings.md
• Scoring independence: Ownership, account, shares, position size and cost basis do not change research, valuation, Quality, Opportunity, rank or zones.

Investment Decision History

Timestamp	Price	Rating	Zone Status	Buy Zone	Strong Buy Zone	Avoid Chasing Above	Base FV	P/W FV	P/W Return	Quality	Opportunity / Rank	Change / Rationale
2026-10-21 (America/New_York)	$114.59	Avoid	Avoid	>$17.96–$49.17	≤ $17.96	> $68.29	$54.00	$61.46	-46.4%	80.0	32.1 / #55	Initial missing-file analysis; common-universe ranking; independent scenario assumptions

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Material Sources

Source	Type	Date / Period	What It Supports
Rubrik - Rubrik Reports Second Quarter Fiscal Year 2027 Financial Results	Company IR / earnings filing	Q2 FY2027	Latest operating results, guidance, products and financial supplement
RBRK complete earnings-call transcript	Transcript	Q2 FY2027	Prepared remarks and all material Q&A exchanges
RBRK regular-session historical price	Market data	2026-10-20 close	Common price used in returns, scores and zones
RBRK valuation statistics	Market data	2026-10-20 close; ratios retrieved 2026-10-21	Market capitalization, shares, quoted multiples and current ratios
RBRK historical income statement	Standardized financial statements	Latest reported period and two preceding fiscal years	Historical income statement; source-native currency and definitions
RBRK historical balance sheet	Standardized financial statements	Latest reported period and two preceding fiscal years	Historical balance sheet; source-native currency and definitions
RBRK historical cash flows	Standardized financial statements	Latest reported period and two preceding fiscal years	Historical cash flows; source-native currency and definitions
SentinelOne, Inc. statistics	Comparable-company market data	2026-10-20 regular close	Peer multiples and financial context; public quote basis
FY2026 10-K — named data-protection competitors	Regulatory filing / primary product evidence	FY ended 2026-01-31; checked 2026-10-28	Veeam, Cohesity, Commvault, Dell and IBM backup/recovery overlap
SEC XBRL company facts — RBRK	Regulatory filing (as tagged)	FY2027, through 2026-07-31	Current-year standalone-quarter and year-to-date source facts for FCF, SBC, revenue and other reported metrics