# MIAX — Miami International Holdings

## Company & Research Metadata

- **Company:** Miami International Holdings
- **Ticker:** MIAX
- **Exchange:** NYSE
- **Sector / Industry:** Financial Exchanges & Market Data
- **Template version:** 2.7
- **Research date:** 2026-11-05
- **Valuation / score price snapshot:** $34.97 — 2026-11-04 regular-session close (America/New_York; dated research reference)
- **Valuation refresh date:** 2026-11-05
- **Tracking tier:** Primary Watchlist
- **Owned:** No
- **Primary operating period reviewed:** Q3 / nine months 2026
- **Historical period reviewed:** FY2024–FY2025, H1 2026 and Q3 2025 comparative
- **Latest investor presentation reviewed:** Q3 2026 earnings materials and call slides
- **Latest earnings call reviewed:** Q3 2026 — 2026-10-29
- **Latest post-earnings management commentary reviewed:** 2026-11-03 proposal for binary index and KPI options

This is a substantive earnings and valuation review, not a daily price update. Historical October/early-November research and price-only snapshots remain in Investment Decision History. FolioFacts owns live prices, Opportunity Scores, rankings and live trading zones.

## What's Changed Since Previous Review

**Current Review:** 2026-11-05  
**Previous Review:** 2026-10-28 competitor/Q&A correction (previous fundamental valuation dated 2026-10-06; November 3 price-only snapshot)  
**Update Trigger:** Q3 earnings, subsequent 10-Q, earnings call, Nov. 3 product announcement and valuation reassessment

| Area | Previous View | Current View | Investment Impact |
|---|---|---|---|
| Core options | Q2 $124.4M net revenue and unusually high $0.124 RPC | Q3 $112.6M net revenue, 17.4% market share and **$0.098 RPC** | Earnings still healthy, but ~$0.10 is now better pricing baseline |
| Profitability | Strong H1 expansion | Q3 adj. EBITDA **$70.8M**, +47.5% YoY, 54.0% margin; adjusted OpEx -2% | Stronger evidence of operating leverage |
| Per-share economics | Q2 adjusted earnings +41%, EPS flat | Q3 adjusted earnings +25%, diluted EPS +7% | Dilution remains central |
| Cash and investment | ~$660M cash at Q2 end, futures startup | **$698.9M cash** and $1.5M debt; futures Q3 EBITDA loss **$8.4M** | Balance-sheet resilience with capital deployment risk |
| New products | Bloomberg futures launch | NinjaTrader distribution; Nov. 3 binary-options applications filed | Product option value, not proven earnings |
| Fundamental valuation | $22.50 / $39 / $53, weights 25/55/20, weighted **$37.68** | **$21 / $38 / $53**, weights **30/50/20**, weighted **$35.90** | 4.7% downgrade reflecting pricing uncertainty |
| Scores | Quality 78.9; valuation confidence 58 | Quality **78.9** retained; confidence **55** | Core quality intact, slightly weaker forecast confidence |

**Thesis: Unchanged; risk/reward weakened.** The operating franchise has improved, but the observed capture decline and continued diluted-share growth justify more conservative scenario weights. Price movement from the older $33.86 closing reference is separate from the 4.7% decline in fundamental weighted fair value.

## Investment Snapshot

| Metric | Current View |
|---|---|
| Price Snapshot | **$34.97 — 2026-11-04 regular-session close** |
| Bear / Base / Bull Fair Value | **$21 / $38 / $53** |
| Scenario Probabilities | **30% / 50% / 20%** |
| Probability-Weighted Fair Value | **$35.90** |
| Return at Dated Reference Price | **+2.7%** probability-weighted; **-40.0%** bear case |
| Quality Score / Tier | **78.9 / Tier B** |
| Risk Level | **Medium-High** |
| Valuation Confidence | **55/100** |
| Tracking / Ownership | **Primary Watchlist / Not Owned** |

**Decision rationale:** Excellent core options economics and liquidity do not offset a narrow weighted valuation cushion at the dated $34.97 price. Live Opportunity Score, ranking, rating/zone and trading bands belong to FolioFacts, not this fundamental file.

## Investment Thesis

MIAX has become a scaled U.S. options venue group. Its **17.4% Q3 2026 options share** and **76.8% options segment adjusted EBITDA margin** provide evidence of a viable exchange technology and liquidity franchise against Cboe, Nasdaq and NYSE options venues. The business can compound earnings if growing industry volumes, connectivity and data revenue translate into superior per-share economics.

The difficult question is not whether MIAX can process volume efficiently; it is whether it can retain flow **without cutting revenue per contract too much**, and whether diluted EPS can compound after SBC, warrants and other share issuance. Q3 revenue per contract of $0.098, versus Q2's exceptional $0.124, illustrates the risk. Futures, international exchanges and new proprietary contracts are option value, not currently the foundation of earnings.

### What the Market May Be Mispricing

| Debate | Current Assessment |
|---|---|
| Is MIAX still a marginal options exchange? | No: 17.4% U.S. options share and substantial core profitability establish meaningful scale |
| Is Q2 revenue per options contract the new normal? | No: Q3 $0.098 and management's ~$0.10 reset are better near-term anchors |
| Does adjusted EBITDA growth translate to EPS? | Not fully: Q3 adjusted EBITDA +47.5% vs adjusted EPS +7% |
| Should MIAX cash be added on top of a P/E valuation? | No: a whole-equity earnings multiple already includes cash value |
| Should futures/new proprietary products command a high premium? | Only after volume, positive capture and regulatory/operating outcomes are demonstrated |

## Business Overview

MIAX operates multiple regulated venues using proprietary exchange infrastructure. Transaction fees, exchange connectivity, market data and listings support its revenues; **net revenue after liquidity payments and other transaction costs**, not gross fees, better captures the operating economics.

| Segment / Platform | Role | Q3 Net Revenue | Q3 Adjusted EBITDA | Assessment |
|---|---|---:|---:|---|
| Options — MIAX Options/Pearl/Emerald/Sapphire | U.S. multi-listed options | **$112.6M** (+19% YoY) | **$86.5M** | Main profit pool, 76.8% EBITDA margin |
| Equities — Pearl Equities | U.S. cash equities | **$6.7M** (+53% YoY) | **$1.0M** | Small but improving |
| Futures / Bloomberg / agricultural | Futures marketplace/products | **$5.0M** (+4% YoY) | **-$8.4M** | Early-stage investment and incentives |
| International — BSX / TISE | Listings and market infrastructure | **$6.1M** (+11% YoY) | **$2.3M** | Small profitable diversification |
| Corporate/other | Consolidating activity | **$0.6M** | — | Not a separate growth engine |

Options accounted for roughly 86% of Q3 net revenue. Dorman Trading's additional FCM capital and OCC clearing membership support broker access to MIAX futures; neither proves customer adoption or sustainable positive pricing.

On November 3, MIAX announced filings proposing binary Bloomberg-index options, with a potential 2027 introduction **subject to SEC review**, and company-KPI binary options without a firm launch date. No unapproved product revenue is assumed in the base model.

### Business Takeaway

The core options franchise already finances the company. The adjacent businesses offer diversification but still require validated demand, liquidity and economic returns.

## Industry, TAM & Market Share

Options industry growth remains supportive. MIAX's Q3 options average daily volume reached approximately **11.1 million contracts, up 15.2% YoY**, and market share increased to **17.4% versus 17.2%** a year earlier and **16.5%** sequentially in Q2. The sequential rebound is useful; the small YoY share gain means **industry trading growth**, rather than a dramatic competitive shift, still explains much of the improvement.

### Market-Share Analysis

Direct competitors span multiple U.S. options venues; consistent, current market-share figures for all venues were not available, so relative competitive positions are compared below rather than asserting incompatible market-share estimates.

| Company / Platform | Primary Position | Relative Scale | Growth Direction | Investment Relevance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| **MIAX** | U.S. listed options, with developing equity and futures venues | 17.4% Q3 2026 U.S. options share | Modest YoY share gain | Core options economics drive valuation; futures remain an investment |
| **Cboe** | Direct U.S. listed-options competitor | Broader product and proprietary-IP ecosystem | Strong | Primary direct exchange competitor |
| **Nasdaq** | U.S. listed options and equities | More diversified group | Stable | Direct options competitor and secondary valuation anchor |
| **NYSE / ICE** | U.S. options and equities venues; ICE also operates futures | Broad, diversified parent | Strong | Direct U.S. options competitor, diversified valuation anchor |
| **BOX / MEMX** | Overlapping U.S. exchange venues | Smaller competitors in the MIAX analysis | Mixed | Fee competition affects capture |
| **CME** | Futures market | Entrenched futures liquidity network | Strong | Futures benchmark, not a listed-options share comparator |

**MIAX reported share observations across different periods and products (preserved from the earnings review):**

| Product / Definition | Current Period | Prior Period | Interpretation |
|---|---:|---:|---|
| MIAX U.S. listed-options share, Q3 2026 | **17.4%** | **17.2% Q3 2025** | Share improvement, but modest |
| MIAX U.S. listed-options share, Q3 vs Q2 2026 | **17.4%** | **16.5% Q2 2026** | Sequential recovery |
| MIAX U.S. equities market share, earlier YTD 2026 | **~0.8%** | **~1.1%** prior-year period | Weak adjacency |

A consistently defined, current U.S.-listed-options share table across Cboe, Nasdaq, NYSE, BOX and MEMX was not available from the source set used, so no incompatible peer figures are implied. Direct competitors are separated from futures-only competitors in the following section.

### Industry Takeaway

The options franchise has genuine relevance and a sizable transaction market. Volume growth without retained per-contract capture, however, cannot guarantee earnings growth.

## Customer Economics

MIAX core transaction economics can be expressed as **industry options volume × MIAX market share × net revenue per contract**, plus access, connectivity, market data and other fees.

Q3 options revenue per contract (RPC) fell to **$0.098**, from **$0.124 Q2** and **$0.110 Q1**. Management indicated that the Q1-to-Q3 decline reflected roughly **$0.006** of Options Regulatory Fee impact, approximately **$0.008–0.009** of fee changes during July (partially reversed in August), and around **+$0.003** of favorable mix. Those rounded drivers were explicitly uncertain. Management offered roughly **$0.10** as a practical near-term reset, **not a fixed floor or guarantee**.

Non-transaction options fees grew **38% YoY** as connections, January 2026 pricing and historical data sales expanded. About **$2M** of Q3 historical data sales can vary; management plans approximately **10% higher access fees from January 2027**. This reduces reliance on pure trading capture but does not turn the exchange into a locked-in subscription model.

Financial futures transaction capture was approximately **-$1.42 per contract** under launch waivers/rebates. Quoting subsidies are roughly **$0.5–$1M per quarter**, plus marketing. Management expects capture to improve as retail adoption increases but gave no firm break-even commitment.

### Customer-Economics Takeaway

Attractive exchange incremental margins coexist with low contractual switching costs. **Share gains at falling RPC can be uneconomic**; monitor both together and avoid treating futures incentivized volume as profitable growth.

## Competitive Landscape & Moat

### Competitive Landscape

| Competitor | Market Share | Positioning | Advantages vs. Company | Disadvantages vs. Company | Current Direction |
|---|---:|---|---|---|---|
| **Cboe** | N/A on a directly comparable single-group basis in this analysis | Direct segments: U.S. listed options and overlapping derivatives | Broader product/IP ecosystem and global scale | MIAX can be more agile and focused | Strong |
| **Nasdaq** | N/A on a directly comparable single-group basis in this analysis | Direct segments: U.S. options and equities exchanges | Substantially more diversified | MIAX has strong purpose-built options architecture | Stable |
| **NYSE / ICE** | N/A on a directly comparable single-group basis in this analysis | Direct segments: U.S. options/equities venues; parent futures not equivalent | Dominant data, futures and clearing assets | MIAX has gained meaningful options share despite smaller scale | Strong |
| **CME** | N/A — futures market differs | Direct segment: competing futures contracts; not an options-share comparator | Extraordinary futures liquidity/network effects | Bloomberg partnership gives MIAX differentiated products | Strong |
| **BOX / MEMX** | N/A | Direct: overlapping U.S. exchange venues | Fee competition remains intense | MIAX has greater options scale | Mixed |

### Moat Assessment

MIAX's most credible moat is its **purpose-built exchange technology and the liquidity ecosystem accumulated around it**. Management argues that its low-latency architecture, deterministic performance and risk controls allow market makers to quote more aggressively. Exchange rules can often be copied; the full technological implementation and liquidity network are harder to replicate.

Regulatory licenses and member connectivity are additional barriers, but not absolute ones. Sophisticated trading firms multi-home across venues and move flow based on economics.

**Moat direction: Stable to modestly strengthening.**

### Competitive Takeaway

MIAX has built a real competitive position in options, but I would not characterize it as having the same network-effect depth as CME's futures complex or the breadth of ICE, Cboe or Nasdaq. The moat is good enough to support attractive economics, not good enough to eliminate price competition.

## Financial Profile

Q3 consolidated net revenue was **$131.0M (+19.7% YoY)** and adjusted EBITDA **$70.8M (+47.5%)**, lifting adjusted margin to **54.0%** from roughly 44%. Adjusted operating expense declined approximately 2% to $60.3M. This is strong operating leverage; the GAAP period comparison includes unusual IPO-period costs and other discrete adjustments.

### Historical Financials

Financial reporting periods follow the issuer's fiscal year: completed FY rows plus standalone current-year quarters and cumulative H1/9M for FY2026. Revenue is issuer **net revenue (revenues less cost of revenues)**, not the gross US-GAAP revenues tagged in SEC company facts. FCF is operating cash flow minus both purchases of property/equipment and capitalized internal software. Q3 FCF is derived by subtracting H1 from 9M. Q1 and Q2 standalone FCF remain N/D pending source-verified matching quarterly cash outflows. SBC is the same-period issuer-disclosed amount; cash is a period-end balance. Missing values are N/D, not zero. Unit: USD millions. Data extracted from SEC-tagged filings as of 2026-11-07. Company-specific FCF definitions and acquisition effects may require further reconciliation.

| Period | Revenue | Growth | Gross Margin | Operating Margin | FCF | FCF Margin | SBC | Diluted Shares | Cash | Debt |
|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|
| FY2024 | $275.6M | +18.6% | N/D | N/D | FCF ~$84.7M (earlier provider definition) | N/D | $43.6M | ~74.6M adjusted | N/D | N/D |
| FY2025 | $430.5M | +56.2% | N/D | N/D | FCF ~$145M (earlier provider definition) | N/D | $57.6M | ~90.6M adjusted | N/D | N/D |
| Q1 FY2026 | $128.593M (derived: H1 less Q2 net revenue) | N/D | N/D | N/D | N/D | N/D | $8.673M | 109.154M | $550.786M | N/D |
| Q2 FY2026 | $141.113M | +34.8% | N/D | 19.7% | N/D | N/D | $7.290M | 110.714M | $660.462M | N/D |
| H1 FY2026 | $269.706M | +37.2% | N/D | N/D | $150.564M (derived: CFO less PPE capex and capitalized software) | 55.8% | $15.963M | 109.944M | $660.462M | N/D |
| Q3 FY2026 | $131.009M | +19.7% | N/D | 36.0% | $18.760M (derived: 9M less H1 FCF) | 14.3% | $7.539M | 110.799M | $698.854M | ~$1.5M |
| 9M FY2026 | $400.715M | +30.9% | N/D | N/D | $169.324M (derived: CFO less PPE capex and capitalized software) | 42.3% | $23.502M | 110.249M | $698.854M | ~$1.5M |

#### Supplemental historical reporting context (retained)

**Supplemental earnings-release presentation, preserving adjusted EBITDA/margin and original cash-flow classifications:**

| Period | Net Revenue | Growth | Adjusted EBITDA / Margin | Cash Flow | SBC | Diluted Shares | Cash / Debt |
|---|---:|---:|---:|---|---:|---:|---|
| FY2024 | $275.6M | +18.6% | Historical | FCF ~$84.7M (earlier provider definition) | $43.6M | ~74.6M adjusted | Historical |
| FY2025 | $430.5M | +56.2% | $199.1M / 46.2% | FCF ~$145M (earlier provider definition) | $57.6M | ~90.6M adjusted | Historical |
| H1 2026 | $269.7M | +37.2% | ~$142.9M / ~53% | $150.564M FCF (calculated, includes software capex) | $15.963M | Q2 adj. diluted ~110.7M | ~$660M / ~$1.5M |
| **Q3 2026** | **$131.0M** | **+19.7%** | **$70.8M / 54.0%** | **$18.760M FCF (derived from 9M less H1 cash flows)** | **$7.539M** | **110.8M adjusted** | **$698.9M / $1.5M** |
| **9M 2026** | **$400.7M** | **+30.9%** | **~$213.7M / ~53.3%** | **$206.708M OCF / $169.324M FCF including software capex** | **$23.502M** | ~110.2M GAAP diluted | **$698.9M / $1.5M** |

**SBC disclosure:** Q3 2026 share-based compensation was **$7.539M**, versus **$29.098M** in Q3 2025; nine-month 2026 SBC was **$23.502M**, versus **$48.007M** in 9M 2025. The prior-year quarter included accelerated equity compensation related to the IPO. Amounts are from MIAX's Q3 2026 earnings reconciliation and 10-Q; these costs remain economically relevant even when excluded from adjusted results.

**2026 cash-flow reconciliation ($M):** The company publishes cumulative cash-flow statements; the Q3 cash-flow entries below are **calculated as 9M less H1**, not separately reported quarterly cash-flow line items. FCF consistently subtracts both property/equipment capital expenditures and capitalized internal software from operating cash flow. SBC is separately reported for Q3.

| Cash-flow item | H1 2026 (6M) | 9M 2026 (9M) | Q3 2026 (9M minus H1) |
|---|---:|---:|---:|
| Operating cash flow | $183.642M | $206.708M | $23.066M |
| Capital expenditures | $27.992M | $29.438M | $1.446M |
| Capitalized internal software | $5.086M | $7.946M | $2.860M |
| **Free cash flow (calculated)** | **$150.564M** | **$169.324M** | **$18.760M** |
| Stock-based compensation | $15.963M | $23.502M | $7.539M (reported Q3) |

**Time-period warning:** H1 and 9M are overlapping cumulative periods; Q3 is a three-month standalone period. Do not compare Q3's dollar bars directly with full-year or year-to-date totals. FY2024–FY2025 FCF values retain an earlier provider definition and should not be assumed comparable with this 2026 capex-inclusive definition.

Nine-month free cash flow shown here deducts **$29.438M capital spending and $7.946M capitalized internal software** from **$206.708M operating cash flow**, yielding **$169.324M (~42.3% net revenue margin)**. Previous annual FCF figures use a different provider convention and should not be treated as identical definitions.

Q3 adjusted earnings **$50.1M (+25%)** turned into adjusted EPS **$0.45 (+7%)**, because adjusted diluted shares increased from **96.1M to 110.8M (~15%)**. The large historical basic-share increase is partly capital-structure/IPO/warrant conversion related, not all continuing employee compensation. Nevertheless, **SBC and future diluted share growth matter**. GAAP 9M profits are inflated by a tax valuation allowance reversal and MIAXdx sale gain, while a $30M litigation settlement is a large discrete charge; avoid valuing the stock using unnormalized GAAP profits.

### Financial Takeaways

MIAX converts scale into margins and cash, has very little funded debt, and can afford to invest. Future per-share value creation still depends on stabilizing RPC, minimizing dilution and earning satisfactory returns on futures capital.

**Financial direction: Improving operations, mixed per-share value creation.**

## Management & Capital Allocation

Management deserves credit for scaling its options venues and reducing FY2026 adjusted operating expense guidance to **$254–257M** from **$260–270M**, while Q3 revenue and margin advanced. However, planned marketing, quoting support, hiring and technology costs are expected to rebound in Q4 and into 2027; Q3 should not be treated as a permanent zero-growth expense base.

Updated FY2026 guidance also calls for **$30–32M SBC**, **$43–46M capex** (including software capitalization), and a **26–28% adjusted tax rate**. Dorman received a **$40M capital increase** to support greater futures activity and clearing. Management favors reinvestment and selective deals over near-term distributions; large cash balances must therefore be evaluated alongside potential product-launch returns and dilution.

The post-quarter binary-option plans and commentary about perpetuals are opportunities, not approved profit streams. Management described customer demand, regulatory clarity and economic returns as necessary decision gates before committing to new products.

### Management Takeaway

Above-average operating execution, but new-market capital allocation and consistent per-share growth have yet to be proven.

## Valuation

### Current Valuation

*Re-underwritten November 5, 2026.*

| Metric | Value |
|---|---:|
| Price Snapshot | **$34.97**, Nov. 4 regular-session close |
| Shares outstanding (basic, approx.) | **100.06M** |
| Market Capitalization | **~$3.50B** ($34.97 × 100.06M) |
| Cash / funded debt, Sept. 30 | **$698.9M / $1.5M** |
| Enterprise Value | **~$2.80B**, simplified equity less cash plus funded debt (not a fully adjusted EV) |
| Annualized Q3 adjusted EBITDA | **~$283.2M** |
| EV / Q3 annualized adjusted EBITDA | **~9.9×** |
| Annualized 9M adjusted EPS | **~$1.80** (illustrative, not company guidance) |
| Price / annualized 9M adjusted EPS | **~19.4×** |
| Annualized 9M FCF after software capex | **~$225.8M**, ~15.5× price/FCF |

The annualized figures are **not forward guidance** and differ from vendor TTM and conventional GAAP metrics. Cash excludes restricted/customer-clearing cash and the simple EV bridge excludes possible debt/lease/investment adjustments. P/E scenario fair values value the **entire equity including cash**; do not add net cash again.

### Comparable Company Analysis

November 4 same-provider research cross-check, with differing business mix and source definitions. MIAX's internally calculated *annualized and adjusted* metrics are not strictly equivalent to the following vendor-reported metrics.

| Company | Relevance | Public / Private | Forward P/E | Price / FCF | EV / EBITDA | Growth / Margin / Risk Context |
|---|---|---|---:|---:|---:|---|
| **MIAX** | Core exchange subject; annualized adjusted research metrics | Public | **~19.4× EPS run-rate** | **~15.5× annualized 9M FCF** | **~9.9× Q3 annualized adjusted EBITDA** | Strong core options margins and liquidity; RPC and dilution remain material risks |
| **Cboe** | Direct listed-options peer | Public | **22.8×** | **14.2×** | **17.2×** | Direct options competitor; broader product and intellectual-property base |
| **ICE** | Listed-exchange segment competitor and diversified valuation anchor | Public | **20.4×** | **18.5×** | **17.3×** | Diversified exchange group; listed-options segment is only one activity |
| **Nasdaq** | U.S. options/equities competitor and diversified anchor | Public | **24.0×** | **27.0×** | **20.0×** | Diversified options/equities venue and technology group |
| **CME** | Futures-only network-effects benchmark | Public | **23.8×** | **25.5×** | **22.6×** | Futures-network valuation benchmark, not a listed-options share peer |

These larger operators generally deserve higher multiples for proprietary products, liquidity networks and/or diversification. Do not force their multiple average on MIAX.

### Valuation Scenarios

*Normalized 2027 adjusted diluted EPS scenarios.*

| Scenario | Key Assumptions | 2027 EPS | Multiple | Fair Value | Probability | Probability Rationale | Return From Price Snapshot |
|---|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---|---:|
| **Bear** | Share drifts toward 15–16%, RPC <$0.095, industry volumes weaken, futures losses persist and dilution continues | **$1.50** | **14×** | **$21.00** | **30%** | RPC pressure, futures losses and dilution justify raising the bear weight to 30% | **-40.0%** |
| **Base** | Options share ~17%, RPC near ~$0.10, access/data fees grow, operating leverage offsets only gradually improving futures losses and moderate dilution | **$2.00** | **19×** | **$38.00** | **50%** | Q3 margins support normalized earnings if RPC and diluted shares stabilize | **+8.7%** |
| **Bull** | Rising profitable options volumes, successful services and real futures retail adoption at improving net capture; dilution moderates | **~$2.30** | **~23×** | **$53.00** | **20%** | Successful product economics are unproven; weight remains limited to 20% | **+51.6%** |
| **Probability-Weighted** | 30% Bear / 50% Base / 20% Bull |  |  | **$35.90** | **100%** | Weighted average of the three scenarios | **+2.7%** |

**Arithmetic:** 0.30 × $21 + 0.50 × $38 + 0.20 × $53 = **$35.90**.

**Changes from the preceding underwriting:** Bear falls **$22.50 → $21** because lower RPC and sustained dilution increase downside earnings/multiple sensitivity. Base **$39 → $38** because $2.00 normalized EPS is retained but its multiple is cut **19.5× → 19×**. The EPS is retained deliberately after Q3: improved operating margins and lower expense guidance still support earnings growth from the annualized ~$1.80 nine-month adjusted EPS baseline, provided capture stabilizes and dilution slows. Bull **$53** remains unchanged: ~$2.30 EPS and stronger proprietary-product economics are plausible but **unproven**, so its weight stays **20%**. Bear weight rises **25% → 30%**; base weight falls **55% → 50%**.

The prior P/W value **$37.68** is therefore cut to **$35.90 (-4.7%)**. At today's *dated* research reference close, the old $37.68 value would imply **~7.7% upside**, whereas the new valuation implies **~2.7%**. That separates the effect of a higher stock price from the fundamental model downgrade.

### Valuation Takeaway

- **Primary valuation method:** Scenario P/E multiples applied to normalized 2027 adjusted diluted EPS.
- **Valuation refresh date / changes vs. previous valuation (including reasons for unchanged inputs):** 2026-11-05; bear $22.50 → $21, base $39 → $38, bull retained at $53, and probability-weighted fair value $37.68 → $35.90, as explained above.
- **Cross-check methods:** Annualized Q3 adjusted EBITDA and EV/EBITDA, annualized nine-month adjusted EPS and P/E, annualized nine-month FCF and price/FCF, and exchange peers.
- **Key valuation dependencies:** Options market share, ~$0.10 per-contract capture, diluted-share growth, futures losses and returns on new products.
- **Valuation confidence / Risk Level:** 55/100 / Medium-High.
- **Margin-of-safety conclusion:** At the November 4 reference close of $34.97, $35.90 weighted fair value provides only ~2.7% modeled upside against ~40% bear-case downside.

**Quality 78.9 / Tier B** unchanged. **Valuation confidence 55/100**, down from 58, with **Medium-High** risk. MIAX has a valuable options franchise, but at $34.97 there is little modeled weighted upside and significant downside under a pricing and dilution stress. This report sets no live Buy/Hold zones, rankings or Opportunity Score; FolioFacts owns those functions.

## Analyst Questions

**Latest call: Q3 2026, October 29.** Complete material analyst exchanges are presented below in original paraphrase, including the questions, substantive responses and independent investment implications. They replace the Q2 Q&A as the *current* quarter; preceding-quarter questions remain in historical source context.

| Analyst / Firm | Core Question | Management Response | Research Read-Through |
|---|---|---|---|
| **Patrick Moley / Piper Sandler** | How much of the Q3 options RPC decline came from ORF, July fees (including the partial August reversal), or trading mix, and should investors expect a rebound from $0.098? | CFO Emmons attributed roughly $0.006 of the Q1-to-Q3 drop to regulatory fees and about $0.008–0.009 to fee changes, offset by ~$0.003 favorable mix, subject to rounding and variation. With no additional October/November fee changes then planned, approximately $0.10 was a sensible reference, not a promise. | Lower normalized capture makes the base case less certain. |
| **Patrick Moley / Piper Sandler — follow-up** | Why has full-year expense guidance repeatedly come down, and how much headcount, technology and Bloomberg-related marketing expenditure will return in 2027? | Lower summer marketing reflected launch timing. Management expects higher Q4/2027 customer and Bloomberg promotions, selective hiring and technology maintenance inflation, partly offset by early hardware purchases. Detailed 2027 plans await Q4 reporting. | Do not project permanently flat expenses from Q3 alone. |
| **Jeff Schmitt / William Blair** | How large are the financial futures launch subsidies, marketing and quoting costs, and when should incentives decline? | Financial-futures capture was roughly negative $1.42 per contract because of waivers/rebates. Management hopes for eventual positive $0.25–$0.30 capture depending on product, with ~$0.5–$1M quarterly quoting incentives plus marketing while liquidity builds; no break-even timetable guaranteed. | Keep futures losses in bear and base; avoid premature profit credit. |
| **Jeff Schmitt / William Blair — follow-up** | With NinjaTrader live, how quickly can distribution widen, and what remains to be done before brokers can bring active customers? | One firm was live, another had finished testing and was expected soon, and two others were progressing through connection/testing. Joint retail/professional marketing should follow these integrations. | Technical connections do not yet prove trade volume and profitability. |
| **Ken Worthington / JPMorgan** | Why did options price capture decline so sharply for only modest year-over-year share gains? Is competition or product/customer mix more important? | Management described share and pricing as related but not mechanically inverse: auctions, customer mix, member tiers and market conditions influence capture, alongside deliberate fee changes. It remained comfortable with revenue optimization. | The weak capture/share trade-off is the principal bearish sensitivity. |
| **Ken Worthington / JPMorgan — follow-up** | Does approximately $0.10 capture imply new market share gains, or is it roughly appropriate for current share? | Management would not attach a numerical share forecast to RPC. Complex-order and Sapphire floor functionality can gain activity at favorable economics; individual customer opportunities matter more than one fee point. | Model share and capture as distinct drivers. |
| **Ken Worthington / JPMorgan — follow-up** | Has MIAX's technical advantage matured, or can its latency, throughput and risk protections continue helping market makers and driving share growth? | CEO Gallagher and CIO Schafer pointed to deterministic low latency, high throughput and evolving risk controls, plus new exchange-floor capabilities. These are management assertions about the ability to compete in volatile markets. | Maintains the core moat assessment, pending evidence from sustained economic share. |
| **Chris Brendler / Rosenblatt** | Are new exchanges materially changing the competitive landscape, or is Q3's unusual pricing/share mix mostly MIAX-specific? | Management viewed new entrants as technologically and functionally less developed and highlighted additional electronic and floor product functionality as the next share drivers. | Do not assume new rivals cannot eventually compete on fees. |
| **Chris Brendler / Rosenblatt — follow-up** | Why consider perpetual futures or other emerging market structures when MIAX's appeal is focus and discipline? | Management emphasized three conditions before committing: verified customer demand, a workable regulatory route, and economics that justify development. Shared technology could reduce incremental rollout costs. | Encouraging stated discipline; do not capitalize unapproved products. |

### Analyst-Q&A Takeaway

Compared with Q2, the market's key challenge has moved from unexpectedly *high* RPC to actual **Q3 fee/capture deterioration**, while management provided specific cost estimates for financial-futures incentives and warned that marketing/headcount spend can rebound. Those points support a more cautious probability weighting even as Q3 margins improved.

## Thesis Monitoring

| Driver | Current State | Positive Trigger / Catalyst | Negative Trigger / Falsifier | What It Changes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| **Options share** | 17.4% Q3 | Sustained ≥17% with good capture | Toward 15–16% | Moat / EPS |
| **Options RPC** | $0.098 Q3; ~$0.10 indicated reset | Stable ≥$0.10 | Persistent <$0.095 | Highest-priority valuation sensitivity |
| **Options ADV** | ~11.1M, +15.2% YoY | Durable industry growth | Multi-quarter downturn | Revenue growth |
| **Access/data revenue** | +38% YoY; ~$2M variable historical-data sales | Member expansion, Jan. 2027 fee increase sticks | One-time or customer pushback | Revenue mix |
| **Dilution/SBC** | 110.8M Q3 adj. diluted shares vs 96.1M | EPS growth catches earnings growth | Continued double-digit dilution | Per-share compounding |
| **Futures** | -$8.4M Q3 adj. EBITDA; initial negative capture | Multiple brokers drive real volume and positive economics | Continuing high subsidies without users | Optionality |
| **Proposed binary products** | Nov. 3 SEC filings | Regulatory approval and monetization | Delayed approval, weak demand | Optionality, not base EPS |
| **Cash/investment discipline** | ~$699M cash, Dorman funded, ~$1.5M debt | Product returns and prudent spending | Overinvestment/acquisitions | Valuation confidence |
| **Competitors** | Cboe/NYSE/Nasdaq in listed options; CME in futures | Product-led capture gains | Aggressive fee pressure | Moat and margins |

## Quality & Opportunity Scorecards

### Quality Score

| Component | Score | Weight | Weighted Contribution | Evidence |
|---|---:|---:|---:|---|
| Business durability and economics | **80** | 25% | **20.0** | High incremental margins and strong core exchange economics, offset by transaction dependence |
| Moat and competitive position | **78** | 25% | **19.5** | Meaningful options scale, technology and licenses, but multi-homing and price competition limit switching costs |
| Growth runway and durability | **83** | 20% | **16.6** | Options share gains plus futures/international optionality |
| Financial quality and balance sheet | **80** | 15% | **12.0** | Excellent liquidity and FCF, materially offset by SBC/dilution |
| Management, governance and capital allocation | **72** | 15% | **10.8** | Strong operating execution; per-share capital allocation remains less proven |
| **Quality Score** | **78.9** | **100%** | **78.9** | **Tier B** |

- **Quality Tier:** B
- **Speculative override:** None

MIAX narrowly misses Tier A. The business itself is approaching A-level economics, but I do not think a company with this degree of dilution, options concentration and unproven capital deployment into futures deserves an 80+ Quality Score yet.

#### Opportunity Score — Historical Context Only

The former **61.1 Opportunity Score / historical rank** was generated from the November 3 price-only snapshot and is preserved below in Investment Decision History, not recalculated here. **FolioFacts** solely calculates live price-dependent scores, rankings and zones from company fundamentals.

## Portfolio Context

- **Tracking tier:** Primary Watchlist
- **Owned:** No
- **Tracking source of truth:** `my_watchlist.md`
- **Portfolio source of truth:** `portfolio/holdings.md`
- **Scoring independence:** Ownership, account, share count, position size, and cost basis do not alter Quality Score, Opportunity Score, rank, rating, valuation, or valuation zones.

## Investment Decision History

| Timestamp | Price | Rating | Zone Status | Buy Zone | Strong Buy Zone | Avoid Chasing Above | Base FV | P/W FV | P/W Return | Quality | Opportunity / Rank | Change / Rationale |
|---|---:|---|---|---|---|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---|---|
| 2026-10-06 | **$30.79** | **Buy** | **Buy** | **$25–$32.50** | **≤ $25** | **> $44** | **$39.00** | **$37.68** | **+22.4%** | **78.9** | **70.1 / Pending** | Initial analysis |
| 2026-10-21 (America/New_York) | $32.41 | Buy | Buy | >$25.00–$32.50 | ≤ $25.00 | > $44.00 | $39.00 | $37.68 | +16.3% | 78.9 | 65.1 / #12 | Common close and shared-universe rank; prior fundamental assumptions and zones preserved |
| **2026-11-05 fundamental Q3 review** (11/04 reference close) | **$34.97** | **Research: limited safety margin** | — FolioFacts | — | — | — | **$38.00** | **$35.90** | **+2.7% dated** | **78.9** | — FolioFacts | Reassessed bear/base/bull $21/$38/$53; weights 30/50/20; valuation confidence 55; documented stronger margins, lower RPC and dilution; prior decisions preserved |

#### Final Investment View

**MIAX's core options franchise is attractive, but at the November 4 reference price of $34.97 the new $35.90 probability-weighted value implies only ~2.7% upside.** It is no longer a sufficiently wide modeled margin of safety for an aggressive fundamental Buy call. The 76.8% option segment adjusted EBITDA margin, strong cash generation and liquidity support the thesis; the pricing, dilution, futures subsidies and product-regulatory uncertainties explain the cautious multiple and scenarios.

The historical October 2026 Buy call remains above in the decision record. **Quality 78.9 / Tier B**, **Medium-High risk** and **valuation confidence 55/100** are the active fundamental assessments. Actual live price-based classifications, rankings and Opportunity Scores belong to FolioFacts.

---

## Material Sources

| Source | Type | Date / Period | What It Supports |
|---|---|---|---|
| [MIAX Q3 2026 earnings release](https://ir.miaxglobal.com/2026-10-29-Miami-International-Holdings-Reports-Third-Quarter-2026-Results) | Company IR | Q3 2026 | Financial results, segment results, share, volume, guidance, cash and debt |
| [MIAX Q3 2026 Form 10-Q](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1438472/000162828026068667/miax-20260930.htm) | SEC filing | 2026-09-30 | Nine-month cash flow, SBC, share counts, nonrecurring GAAP items, capitalization |
| [MIAX Q2 2026 Form 10-Q](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1438472/000162828026054575/miax-20260630.htm) | SEC filing | 2026-06-30 | Six-month cash-flow statement, capital spending, software capitalization, and SBC supporting derived Q3 FCF |
| [MIAX Q3 2026 earnings call](https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/miax/transcripts/725437-q3-2026/) | Q&A transcript via Quartr | 2026-10-29 | Analyst questions, RPC bridge, future subsidies, technology/competition |
| [MIAX binary index and KPI options announcement](https://ir.miaxglobal.com/2026-11-03-MIAX-Files-with-the-SEC-to-Offer-Cash-settled-Binary-Index-Options-and-KPI-Binary-Options-on-its-SEC-registered-Exchanges) | Company IR | 2026-11-03 | Proposed products, SEC-review dependency and timing |
| [MIAX historical prices](https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/miax/history/) | Market-data reference | 2026-11-04 | $34.97 regular-session close |
| [MIAX statistics — StockAnalysis/S&P](https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/miax/statistics/) | Market-data research reference | 2026-11-04 | Capitalization and multiples cross-check |
| [Cboe statistics — StockAnalysis/S&P](https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/cboe/statistics/) | Comparable research reference | 2026-11-04 | Exchange multiple cross-check |
| [ICE statistics — StockAnalysis/S&P](https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/ice/statistics/) | Comparable research reference | 2026-11-04 | Exchange multiple cross-check |
| [Nasdaq statistics — StockAnalysis/S&P](https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/ndaq/statistics/) | Comparable research reference | 2026-11-04 | Exchange multiple cross-check |
| [CME statistics — StockAnalysis/S&P](https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/cme/statistics/) | Comparable research reference | 2026-11-04 | Futures network/multiple cross-check |
| [MIAX Q2 2026 earnings release](https://ir.miaxglobal.com/2026-08-05-Miami-International-Holdings-Reports-Second-Quarter-2026-Results) | Company IR | Q2 / H1 2026 | Prior operating baseline |
| [MIAX Q2 2026 earnings-call transcript](https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/miax/transcripts/661758-q2-2026/) | Historical Q&A | 2026-08-05 | Preceding analyst debates |
| [MIAX September trading statistics](https://ir.miaxglobal.com/2026-10-06-Miami-International-Holdings-Reports-September-2026-Trading-Results) | Company IR | September 2026 | Earlier YTD share and ADV |
| [MIAX 2025 Form 10-K](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1438472/000143847226000023/miax-20251231.htm) | SEC filing | FY2025 | Annual business and historical results |
| [MIAX Dorman OCC membership](https://ir.miaxglobal.com/2026-09-24-Miami-International-Holdings-Announces-OCC-Clearing-Membership-for-its-FCM) | Company IR | 2026-09-24 | FCM distribution/clearing infrastructure |
| [SEC XBRL company facts — MIAX](https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001438472.json) | Regulatory filing (as tagged) | FY2026, through 2026-09-30 | Current-year standalone-quarter and year-to-date source facts for FCF, SBC, revenue and other reported metrics |

Third-party market-data figures are dated research verification references, not licensed public redistribution feeds. Model estimates and scenario probabilities are independent research.